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Yet Another Value Podcast

Yet Another Value Podcast

By Andrew Walker

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.

Please see our legal and disclaimer at: yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Kaspi $KSPI

Yet Another Value PodcastJan 23, 2023

00:00
01:14:10
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets for March 2023

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets for March 2023

It's the end of the month, which means its time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. March 2023 was a doozy, so a lot to breakdown here, including: banking crises, thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice, mergers hanging in the balance (JetBlue/Spirit & Microsoft/Activision Blizzard), and more! For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/ Show notes: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense [1:40] What's on Chris' mind for March 2023: Banks, Energy, Crypto, Government public policy reaction, plus more! [3:05] Volatility in Banking [6:27] First Republic [7:33] Public policy response to 2023 banking crises [11:46] Chris' thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice & policy [12:56] Why SEC paying closer attention to Coinbase now? [15:57] Andrew's three reasons holding him back from rushing into regional/community bank stocks + Chris' concerns [23:26] JetBlue Spirit deal and trend towards government agencies taking a more aggressive stance on blocking mergers [27:32] JetBlue Spirit cont'd: How do they get in a situation where it seems so clear to you and me that this was going to be a regulatory problem? How do they get in a situation where they were in this regulatory issue? [34:00] Microsoft - Activision Blizzard merger deal [37:15] Timeline for merger trial [40:56] Closing thoughts Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Mar 31, 202342:18
Alex Morris provides 2023 overview on Cable and what makes Media so attractive

Alex Morris provides 2023 overview on Cable and what makes Media so attractive

Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the third time to chat with Andrew about the Media and Cable sectors in 2023. The Media and Cable sectors move at a mile a minute and it was time to have Alex back on to sift through all the noise. This conversation covers everything from: how mobile carriers think about fixed wireless, Charter vs. Cable One & T-Mobile, does Disney have an IP problem, and much more. For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/ You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Daloopa [2:22] Media and Cable space - high level thoughts on 2022/beginning of 2023 [4:30] Rewinding to better understand current media/cable infrastructure and how Alex thinks about fixed wireless [8:57] How mobile carriers talking about fixed wireless [12:08] Why Alex has Charter and Comcast in his portfolio? [14:43] How does Alex think about Comcast being potentially being valued with conglomerate discount? [19:05] Charter vs. Cable One and Charter vs. T-Mobile [23:11] A bit more on T-Mobile [27:54] Why Alex thinks you can achieve risk-adjusted alpha investing in Charter? [31:53] Understanding Charter's CAPEX story [33:45] Cable assets, Fiber assets + M&A [37:09] Final thoughts on Cable/Fiber conversation [40:06] What Alex is seeing in the Media business that is so attractive [43:53] Does Disney have an IP problem? [48:28] Taking a look at the state of Netflix - do they need a merger partner or to buy something? [51:37] Making the case that Netflix is a risk-adjusted alpha generator [54:32] Final thoughts This podcast is brought to you by Daloopa. Daloopa was founded by a former hedge fund analyst. He didn’t have a tool that he trusted to be 99.9% accurate that allowed him to pull updates directly into his existing models, and had the granularity in KPIs, Guidance, and non-GAAP adjustments that he needed. So, he built Daloopa. Daloopa is the fastest growing source for public company data, with data available for over 3,000 companies. Hundreds of AI algorithms collect and organize customized company historicals with an accuracy level and depth of data that is higher than anything achievable by other modeling tools. Each datapoint is auditable to the source. Daloopa’s Excel plugin is the first to allow you to update your models in your existing format. It’s simple and non-invasive—Daloopa will never #REF out your models. Daloopa clients are able to cover more opportunities and generate more ideas. No more data errors, no more Excel monkeying, just the fundamentals. See why equity investors are switching to Daloopa by checking them out at Daloopa.com/YAVP.
Mar 28, 202356:37
John Maxfield on Investing in Banks in a Post-SIVB World

John Maxfield on Investing in Banks in a Post-SIVB World

John Maxfield, Editor of the Maxfield on Banks Newsletter on Substack, has spent nearly two decades studying America's best and worst banks, the history of banking, and interviewing bank leaders. John joins the Yet Another Value Podcast today to answer your burning questions regarding investing banks, his mindset during this "crisis" and how to think about investing in banks moving forward. For more information and to subscribe to John's new substack, please visit: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/ Show notes: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense [1:43] John Maxfield's background and how he got into investing in banks [4:52] Overall thoughts investing in banks right now in a post-SIVB, UBS buying Credit Suisse world [8:43] Blood in the streets in banks vs. other markets[12:45] Why are customers with $10-100M running uninsured deposits in First Republic? [13:55] Regional banks [21:13] How should folks be weighing the risks with regard to investing in banks? [26:54] Catalysts that caused the 1873 crisis; what can we learn from that crisis [29:06] The "everyone needs to chill" model when thinking about run on the banks [33:20] Bank metrics - how KPIs investors care about have changed/evolved [35:25] Franchise risk for banks [38:48] Does what is happening now have an impact on the community banks? [47:11] Bank stocks that look interesting to John Maxfield in a Post-SIVB world [57:47] How do you make $$ as a bank investor buying a bank for 4x book value? [59:47] Generalist interest in banks: what should folks put more weight on when evaluating various investing opportunities (HINT: how did they perform during the 2008 financial crisis) [1:04:38] How important is speaking with management from bank stocks? [1:06:41] Closing thoughts Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Mar 21, 202301:08:02
An exciting time in the Cable Business with Cable One Julia Laulis (NYSE: $CABO)

An exciting time in the Cable Business with Cable One Julia Laulis (NYSE: $CABO)

Julia Laulis, Chair of the Board, President & CEO of Cable One, Inc. (NYSE: CABO), joins Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss how the cable industry is positioned right now in 2023, and Cable One's focus moving forward. Cable One will also be at The Markel Corporation's 2023 shareholders meeting in Richmond, VA on May 17, 2023, where Andrew will also be in attendance. Chapters: 0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE 1:44 - Let's talk about the Cable business; why its an exciting and scary time in the space 4:04 - Does fixed wireless pose a risk to Cable One's focus on broadband for small cities, large towns strategy? 6:47 - The fear with fixed wireless 10:13 - Cable One's experience with fixed wireless 12:13 - Data usage 15:16 - What is it that ultimately turns a fixed wireless customer into a parking place for a future cable customer? 17:17 - Reliability of the network 19:07 - MD&O strategy 21:56 - Fiber overbuilding in general 27:49 - Customer ARPU 31:37 - Cable One's pricing 34:44 - Data throughputs 38:14 - Switching to IPTV and how does this improve the economics of the business 42:13 - Julia's thoughts on fiber vs. Docsis 4.0 for Cable One 46:57 - Is Julia starting to the M&A environment picking up? 48:51 - Share buybacks and capital allocation strategy 51:27 - Customer churn and macro perspective on new connects 1:00:16 - Cont'd. on customer low churn Today's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/
Mar 20, 202301:02:38
Chadd Garcia finds price dislocation in global digital infrastructure firm, DigitalBridge $DBRG

Chadd Garcia finds price dislocation in global digital infrastructure firm, DigitalBridge $DBRG

Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the first time to discuss DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG), and why he finds there could be price dislocation in the global digital infrastructure firm. Chapters: 0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE 2:23 - Overview of DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG) 8:10 - Chadd's thoughts betting on CEO, Marc Ganzi, + background 12:38 - First part of the valuation argument, Chadd's describes the sum of the parts 18:17 - DigitalBridge investment summary so far + second part of the valuation argument (asset pitch), and what the sell-side is missing when they look at the asset value side of the business 26:30 - Thinking through the income statement and cash flow 29:38 - Updated guidance for 2023 and 2025: how does Chadd think about valuation with respect to this information 32:14 - Operating leverage 33:44 - Two acquisitions on the asset management business and their affect on D/E multiple 37:47 - Opportunity cost: Why choose DigitalBridge over alternatives? 40:02 - Addressing pushback on DigitalBridge 45:45 - Outlook on fundraising & acquisition environments 48:47 - Value catalysts for 2023 49:49 - Thinking the the DBRG's scaling potential 50:59 - Does Chadd Garcia think DBRG eventually branches outside digital infrastructure? 52:36 - DBRG's capital allocation strategy 55:45 - Marc Ganzi's payout incentive and how that affects investor sentiment/thesis on DBRG 1:01:04 - Closing thoughts on DBRG  For more information about Chadd Garcia and Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, please visit: https://www.schwartzinvest.com/investing-with-us/ave-maria-mutual-funds/ Today's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/
Mar 14, 202301:02:34
Chris McIntyre thinks Sotera is an incredible business at a good valuation $SHC

Chris McIntyre thinks Sotera is an incredible business at a good valuation $SHC

Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss Sotera Healthcare (SHC), why he thinks it's such a good business, and why he thinks the stock is still undervalued even after a big run in the wake of putting their legal liabilities (largely) behind them.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:15 Sotera Overview  5:30 What makes Sotera such a good business?  14:30 Why it's so unlikely a new competitor can enter the space  19:55 Discussing Sotera's "growth algorithm"   23:30 Sotera's multiple / valuation  32:00 Historical legal liabilities overview  38:45 The "science" behind the legal liabilities  43:15 SHC's settlement and putting the legal liabilities behind them  49:00 Why Georgia is not the same risk as Illinois was  53:35 Sotera's controlling shareholders and their plans for the company  56:00 M&A and roll up possibilities  1:00:45 Closing thoughts
Mar 07, 202301:03:42
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets February 2023

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets February 2023

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for his monthly state of the markets, with updates on TGNA, ATVI, AMC / APE, and MANU.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 TGNA  27:00 ATVI / MSFT  42:30 AMC / APE  50:00 MANU
Mar 01, 202301:01:08
Yaron Naymark on IWG's value case

Yaron Naymark on IWG's value case

Yaron Naymark returns to the podcast to discuss the value case for IWG (London Listed). IWG is best known for their Regus brand, which competes with WeWork in the flex office space. Yaron thinks the market is discounting the operating leverage IWG will realize as they put COVID behind them and begin to accelerate their managed locations offering.    Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:10 IWG overview  12:05 How does the current high vacancy office space impact flex  17:00 Why COVID and tech layoffs could be a tailwind for flex office demand  20:05 Why office owners can't do flex themselves  28:30 Discussing WeWork's brand versus IWG  39:15 IWG's operating leverage and current valuation 52:35 Why is it taking IWG so long to accelerate their franchise business / refranchise corporate locations  55:50 Is pitching value creation / operating leverage just a Waiting for Godot story?  1:05:00 Looking at a potential Instant sale  1:12:30 The complexities of IWG's financial reporting
Feb 27, 202301:19:43
Josh Young from Bison Investments discusses on Vital Energy and his energy outlook $VTLE

Josh Young from Bison Investments discusses on Vital Energy and his energy outlook $VTLE

Josh Young, CIO of Bison, returns to the podcast to discuss what's going on in the energy markets and his recent investment thesis for Vital Energy (VTLE).   Bison's VTLE thesis: https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/vital-energy-is-deeply-discounted  Chapters  0:00 Intro  3:15 What's happened in energy stocks since Josh's last appearance  5:45 Discussing the outlook for nat gas  15:10 Josh's current outlook for oil  24:30 Is the oil market properly reflecting China's reopening  29:30 Can Russia keep up current production levels?  34:35 VTLE overview  51:00 Breaking down VTLE's assets a little further  57:35 What are the little things that energy companies do to improve operations  1:01:20 Has VTLE earned the right to pursue M&A?  1:07:00 VTLE's base case NAV valuation  1:11:30 Will private equity ever step back into the energy space?
Feb 13, 202301:18:27
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets January 2023

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets January 2023

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in January 2023 and discuss what's on his mind, including updates on AVTI, the meme stocks roaring back, and why energy stocks seem poised to continue to perform well.  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:15 What's on Chris's mind  5:20 Quick hits on ATVI, SPB, and SJR  15:00 More on ATVI  24:30 Meme stocks are back!  30:00 Continued discussion on AMC / APE  37:00 Shareholder discounts and WE's discounted desks  39:30 Energy stock performance versus energy prices over the past year  44:20 Why the world seems structurally short every commodity
Jan 30, 202351:40
Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Kaspi $KSPI

Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Kaspi $KSPI

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Kaspi (KSPI). Kaspi is the dominant fintech in Kazakhstan, and Artem breaks down how it's trading for a value price despite rapid growth and how its dominance will allow it to grow into new sectors of the Kazakhstan economy.   Kaspi IPO case study from HBS: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=56825  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 KSPI Overview  8:15 Discussing how ingrained in Kazakhstan Kaspi is  11:20 Sizing and breaking down the payments business  24:45 How Kaspi's data helps them with consumer loans  31:30 Kaspi as a "tax" on the Kazakhstan economy  36:30 Discussing management and Kaspi capital allocation  43:40 Run on the bank risk 48:20 Kazakhstan country / GDP risk  53:00 Why hasn't KSPI succeeded outside of Kazakhstan  1:00:30 How to think about valuing KSPI  1:08:00 Framing KSPI's local currency risk
Jan 23, 202301:14:10
Jeremy Raper on his Serica engagement campaign (SQZ)

Jeremy Raper on his Serica engagement campaign (SQZ)

Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his latest "engagement campaign" at London listed Serica Energy (SQZ). In particular, he focuses on why Serica is trying to rush through their most recent deal and why shareholders should consider voting against the share issuance at the meeting next week.   Jeremy's letter to Serica: https://rapercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/open-letter-Serica-Board-1.pdf  All of Jeremy's engagement campaigns: https://rapercapital.com/engagement-campaigns/   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 What's happening at SQZ  8:45 SQZ's past deal rejections and timing on this deal  15:45 Why an "accretive" deal does not necessarily create value  17:30 How this deal insulates management and discourages shareholder feedback  22:05 Discussing SQZ's shareholder base 27:30 How this deal gives away a controlling stake in Serica for free  30:00 What should shareholders who don't like this deal should do  32:20 How Serica management will respond if the current vote fails  36:05 Providing an update on the coal trade  47:35 Discussing Unit Corp (UNTC)
Jan 19, 202353:52
Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.   Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view  Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?  5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014  10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon  18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates  21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike  25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?  30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?  36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill  39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics  42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy  46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?  54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?  59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?
Jan 09, 202301:03:57
Tidewater's management on the offshore inflection $TDW

Tidewater's management on the offshore inflection $TDW

The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.   TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx  December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 What's different in the current cycle?  8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore  13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side?  26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise  32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion  43:00 What do day rates look like right now?  47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates?  51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different?  57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand?  59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward
Jan 06, 202301:05:20
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2022

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2022

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and  WLFC's proposed takeout.    Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 What's on Chris's mind  4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022  11:20 Updating ATVI  21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities  29:45 WLFC takeout  37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout
Dec 22, 202246:57
Lionel Hutz on Liquidia's patent battle $LQDA

Lionel Hutz on Liquidia's patent battle $LQDA

Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR). Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 LQDA overview  8:05 Diving into the patent background  16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent  19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793  21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793  28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid  37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793  43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent  53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR  59:00 LQDA's upside if they win  1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway
Dec 19, 202201:20:17
Mordechai Yavneh on Silicon Motion $SIMO

Mordechai Yavneh on Silicon Motion $SIMO

Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."   Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research   Chapters   0:00 Intro  2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage  6:00 More SIMO overview  11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price?  15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals  21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO  25:50 Why SIMO is taking share 31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share  34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's  40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals  45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value  52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO  57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018  1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through?  1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break
Dec 15, 202201:06:18
Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors on CoreCard $CCRD

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors on CoreCard $CCRD

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach.   Chapters:  0:00 Intro  3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks  22:45 How Avi found CCRD  24:35 CCRD's background  32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration  36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines  40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying to in house)  50:00 Could GS buy CCRD?  52:45 CCRD's valuation  59:00 What makes CCRD's product "premium"?  1:05:00 CCRD's approach to share repurchases  1:06:15 A little more on CCRD's management and history  1:10:30 Avi's closing thoughts
Dec 12, 202201:13:13
AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management on Lamb Weston $LW

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management on Lamb Weston $LW

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:25 LW Overview  9:35 LW Valuation  13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?  19:25 Discussing the current potato crop  26:55 Global margin upside  28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW?  31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now?  34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics  37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks  41:30 Management incentives and share price targets  45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games  48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple  51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?
Dec 08, 202258:43
Half Moon Capital on Oxford Industries $OXM

Half Moon Capital on Oxford Industries $OXM

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.   Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:20 OXM overview  5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength  8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path?  16:05 OXM's valuation  22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID?  28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition  38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM  43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel  47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment  53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk
Dec 05, 202201:06:27
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets November 2022

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets November 2022

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal?  13:50 FTX's implosion  35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto  41:15 Walking through some merger situations
Dec 01, 202254:35
Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on Casio Computer

Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on Casio Computer

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up. Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8 Chapters 0:00 Intro 3:00 Casio Overview 6:30 Are watches a dying business? 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point? 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock? 20:00 Casio's valuation 25:00 Does Casio have enough upside? 28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value? 31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?
Nov 21, 202235:03
The Koala ventures through the commodity space and Ivanhoe Electric (IE)

The Koala ventures through the commodity space and Ivanhoe Electric (IE)

The "Koala", a buyside mining and commodity specialist, comes on to discuss the commodity and mining space in general and Ivanhoe Electric (IE) in particular.   The Koala's twitter account: https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:55 General mining / commodity sector overview  12:40 The "nothing can get built anymore" moat  18:40 Capital discipline imposed by low multiples  22:00 How Peabody talked their own stock down with growth plans  31:00 What is the market missing on coal?  44:00 Why is Whitehaven still the Koala's coal horse?  49:30 Discussing Ivanhoe Mines history  56:55 Ivanhoe Electrics background  1:00:45 Ivanhoe's Typhoon Technology  1:04:30 Discussing Ivanhoe's mines  1:12:00 How did Ivanhoe find these great mines in the U.S.?  1:15:00 Ivanhoe's cash runway
Nov 16, 202201:23:14
Samir Patel from Askeladden Capital on MIX Telematics $MIXT

Samir Patel from Askeladden Capital on MIX Telematics $MIXT

Samir Patel, Portfolio Manager at Askeladden Capital, joins the podcast to discuss Mix Telematics (MIXT) and why he sent a letter to the company pushing for change.   Askeladden's letter to MIXT: https://www.accesswire.com/723191/Askeladden-Capital-Announces-Activist-Position-in-MiX-Telematics-NYSEMIXT  Chapters 0:00 Intro  2:50 MIXT Overview  5:45 MIXT's hardware to subscription switch  9:30 The economics of a MIXT subscription  12:30 What's the moat that prevents competitors entering the market?  18:30 MIXT retention and churn  21:00 MIXT high level valuation  24:20 Precedent comps for MIXT  27:30 Why did Askeladden send a letter to MIXT?  35:45 Digging into MIXT's lack of growth and margin expansion  39:15 MIXT's history of missing long term targets  43:45 Would a PE takeout make sense for MIXT?  46:00 MIXT's sales force  48:30 Tracking MIXT's progress in the near term  56:45 MIXT's recent chairman resignation and insider sales
Nov 14, 202201:02:43
Bill Chen on HHC's value and Ackman's pending tender

Bill Chen on HHC's value and Ackman's pending tender

Bill Chen, a real estate investor, returns to the podcast to discuss HHC's value and why Bill Ackman's current tender for the company might undervalue HHC.   HHC model: https://t.co/q6lQ69TeXZ  Chapters  0:00 Intro 2:50 HHC overview  7:15 How HHC can create value over time  9:15 Valuing HHC's operating assets  11:35 Opportunity cost versus other publicly traded real estate  17:35 Valuing HHC's unstabilized assets  19:30 Valuing HHC's Hawaiian assets (Ward Village)  29:55 Valuing HHC's "other" assets  31:40 Valuing HHC's MPC  45:20 Valuing HHC's Seaport asset  50:55 Why is HHC always trading under NAV?  54:00 Will non-Ackman shareholders ever realize value from HHC?  56:25 HHC's OXY deal  1:05:35 HHC's most recent MPC deal versus share buybacks  1:13:00 Ackman's long term HHC plan
Nov 07, 202201:20:27
Chris Lee discusses his winning stock pitch on $DLA

Chris Lee discusses his winning stock pitch on $DLA

Chris Lee, a MBA student who won the Dorsey Stock Pitch Competition, comes on the podcast to discuss his winning pitch for Delta Apparel (DLA). Chris's winning pitch: https://dorseystockpitchcompetition.substack.com/p/long-delta-apparel-dla?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 Chris's background  4:45 DLA overview  10:20 DLA's valuation  13:40 Returns on capital and competition  17:35 DLA's Fanatics partnership  23:10 The Salt Life Brand  27:30 Is this the right management team for Salt Life?  32:30 End game for Salt Life  34:50 Lack of disclosure worries  41:20 Why is this company public?  43:40 Closing thoughts
Nov 04, 202249:11
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets October 2022 (with a large TWTR focus!)

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets October 2022 (with a large TWTR focus!)

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in October 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, with a large focus on TWTR.My prior podcast on SPB: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1549013912133111808?s=20&t=6iWCDZC_8sPzlIuELTNwdQChapters0:00 Intro2:30 What's on Chris's mind this month (TWTR)4:50 Twitter's security review (or lack thereof)7:30 Jurisdiction for a potential TWTR security review13:30 What would a security review look like?21:40 The politics behind a TWTR security review29:25 Potential repercussions from a TWTR security block35:55 Last chance for financing and insolvency outs!41:45 How big will the cost cuts at TWTR be?45:50 Discussing Spectrum Brands
Oct 26, 202254:43
Luis Sanchez lays out the $IBKR thesis

Luis Sanchez lays out the $IBKR thesis

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth.See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdfChapters0:00 Intro2:45 IBKR overview6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing?12:30 IBKR's valuation15:15 Is IBKR more net interest or trading driven?19:00 IBKR's focus on active traders23:30 Does IBKR have one product risk from the bigger asset managers?28:30 Blow up risk38:00 International account risk and opportunity42:45 Business to business growth52:45 Trading account stickiness53:35 IBKR and crypto55:55 IBKR's founder and management team1:00:15 Share buybacks and insider selling
Oct 17, 202201:08:37
Lionel Hutz explains why Elon will own Twitter $TWTR

Lionel Hutz explains why Elon will own Twitter $TWTR

Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248.Lionel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/LionelHutz_EsqMay pod with Evan: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSAAugust pod with Ann and Compound: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1556987816894255106?s=20&t=LEFlc2kvhXZ_M59UhEj6NQChapters0:00 Intro2:30 Where we are today6:55 Dismissing CFIUS and Bot Outs9:20 Financing and Insolvency risks overview14:10 How could the banks pull out of financing?21:10 How would Elon's efforts over the next three weeks impact financing outs?26:45 Are Elon's hands too dirty at this point to use a financing out?29:10 How would an insolvency out play out?30:55 Does section 5.9 suggest Elon *must* make Twitter solvent at close?33:20 Judicial Estoppel / has Elon already repped TWTR is solvent?39:30 Piercing the veil / getting Elon to pony up all the money45:10 What does the trial process look like if Elon doesn't close now?48:45 What arguments and discovery get made at trial if Elon tries a financing out?52:15 What arguments and discovery get made if Elon tries an insolvency out?56:40 Closing timeline and the Tesla blackout window theory58:15 Would Elon's lawyers have supported the motion to stay if they weren't planning on closing?1:01:50 Why does Elon seem so scared of getting deposed?
Oct 14, 202201:08:16
Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on $SITM

Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on $SITM

Doug O’Laughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on SiTime (SITM). Doug's SITM write up: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/its-high-time-to-look-at-sitimeDoug's first pod appearance: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/doug-from-fabricated-knowledge-onChapters0:00 Intro2:45 SITM overview7:50 What is the market missing at SITM?12:45 Near term numbers and does management have a handle on the business?18:05 MEMS versus Quartz market size and growth24:20 SITM's MEMS market share27:00 Risk of insourcing MEMS31:45 How did SITM "win" MEMS?35:20 Apple and customer concentration41:00 More on MEMS versus Quartz43:40 Apple's "all-in" on MEMS52:45 Why isn't MEMS taking share faster from Quartz?1:00:30 SITM valuation1:08:30 Capital allocation and insider buy
Oct 10, 202201:14:14
Zack Buckley on Xponential Fitness $XPOF

Zack Buckley on Xponential Fitness $XPOF

Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth.Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/AmarginofsafetyChapters0:00 Intro2:00 Zack's background5:15 XPOF overview8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness?12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples17:50 XPOF management history20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value22:55 Does XPOF have too many brands?26:00 Can XPass drive customer acquisition?29:15 What is Zack seeing in XPOF that the market is missing?31:55 Why XPOF over other publicly traded franchises?35:00 Is XPOF riding a post-COVID tailwind?38:30 Franchisee unit economics41:50 Recession risk49:00 Has the competitive environment changed since the last recession?54:45 Insider buying57:00 Capital allocation and acquisitions going forward
Oct 06, 202201:00:24
Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners on Evolus (EOLS) (podcast #128)

Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners on Evolus (EOLS) (podcast #128)

Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners discusses his thesis on Evolus (EOLS). Evolus is a one product company. Their product, Jeuveau, is a Botox competitor exclusively focused on the cosmetics market, and Dave thinks the market is underpricing Jeuveau's strong growth potential.Caligan's website: https://www.caliganpartners.com/Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 Caligan background8:15 EOLS Overview13:00 What does Dave see in EOLS that the market is missing?19:30 Why can EOLS take share versus Botox26:00 Why is EOLS focusing only on Cosmetics29:30 Is M&A in EOLS's future?33:15 EOLS acquisition targets and funding one37:30 Getting operating leverage and hitting cash flow breakeven40:15 What happens if we go into a recession?43:25 What does pricing look like?47:45 Does Daxxify's approval impact the market?52:45 Will new entrants impact pricing for tox?57:15 Closing thoughts
Sep 30, 202259:18
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets September 2022

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets September 2022

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 What's on Chris's Mind3:10 What's happening in Antitrust8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?30:00 Quick TGNA discussion31:45 Swedish Match35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?41:20 How FX impacts SWMA
Sep 28, 202244:09
The CoVest Select team on launching CoVest and their $OEC thesis

The CoVest Select team on launching CoVest and their $OEC thesis

Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelectChapters0:00 Intro2:20 CoVest overview5:05 OEC overview9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?29:35 Recycling carbon black?32:10 Will EPA capex really end?36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC47:30 Why OEC over competitors51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks55:40 CoVest overview59:55 Why work with CoVest1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment
Sep 21, 202201:09:20
Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital on $PX

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital on $PX

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 PX Overview3:30 Management fee streams5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds11:50 What is the market missing at PX?15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?18:30 Comparing PX to KKR23:20 PX's acquisition outlook25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?28:15 More on PX's acquisitions30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time48:15 PX's management team track record52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland
Sep 16, 202201:01:13
James Elbaor is investing in Bill Ackman at a Discount $PSH

James Elbaor is investing in Bill Ackman at a Discount $PSH

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaorChapters0:00 Intro2:25 PSH Overview11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades42:30 The interest rate swaption46:30 PSH's current portfolio52:30 How PSH will evolve over time56:30 PSH's dividend1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting
Sep 12, 202201:05:15
Jon Boyar on the Dolan Discounts at $MSGS and $MSGE

Jon Boyar on the Dolan Discounts at $MSGS and $MSGE

Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593Chapters0:00 Intro3:45 MSG History8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?13:15 MSGS SOTP15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?29:30 MSGE spin overview31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal40:15 Sports betting47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell
Aug 26, 202254:52
Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Diversified Energy $DEC

Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Diversified Energy $DEC

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6wBloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-tChapters0:00 Intro2:15 DEC overview9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)43:55 Even more on AROs54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM
Aug 22, 202201:27:44
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets August 2022

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets August 2022

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.0:00 Intro2:10 Overview3:45 What's happening with TWTR26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle45:00 Rio / TRQ
Aug 17, 202256:16
Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248 on $TWTR vs. Musk

Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248 on $TWTR vs. Musk

Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSAProfessor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLiptonCompound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248Chapters0:00 Intro2:40 Overall case thoughts to date6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?26:00 The looming discovery fight28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?53:15 Elon's consent rights55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?58:30 A little more on mDAUs1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap1:08:45 Financing tail risk1:12:15 Odds of a settlement
Aug 09, 202201:17:09
David from Kingdom Capital on UNTC

David from Kingdom Capital on UNTC

David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-loseChapters0:00 Intro2:30 UNTC overview5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment33:30 Valuing drilling38:15 Midstream's value46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns49:20 UNTC's warrants52:40 UNTC's SOTP1:01:00 Generalists in energy
Aug 02, 202201:07:43
Chris DeMuth's state of the markets July 2022

Chris DeMuth's state of the markets July 2022

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.0:00 Intro2:45 Markets Overview4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs10:40 CLR update and energy companies21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s26:10 TWTR update28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?52:45 TWTR wrap up
Jul 28, 202258:22
PJ Kurzweil on Spectrum Brands SPB

PJ Kurzweil on Spectrum Brands SPB

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Spectrum Brands (SPB). Spectrum is currently in the process of selling their HHI business, and whether that deal goes through or not PJ thinks the stock is too cheap given the quality of their brands / businesses.My notes on SPB: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1547219565016453121?s=20&t=n_liDehcIwWBLmo0x51NLQPJ's SPB write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-hard-catalysts-toChapter0:00 Intro2:10 SPB overview4:55 Why is SPB interesting right now?7:30 What's going on with the HHI sale?13:00 HSI's HSR process17:30 What happens if the HSI deal falls through?24:00 HPC's value31:20 Inflation's impact on SPB33:30 Did pets and garden benefit too much from COVID pull forward?37:00 Are millennials a tail wind going forward?40:20 SPB's pet brands45:50 What drives SPB's near term earnings growth?48:00 Is SPB underspending on ad spend?50:00 SPB versus CENT55:00 Capital allocation at SPB
Jul 18, 202201:05:45
Jeremy Raper on the event driven market July 2022

Jeremy Raper on the event driven market July 2022

Jeremy Raper of rapercapital.com makes his record 7th podcast appearance to discuss a host of event driven situations.Jeremy's letter to EVO: https://rapercapital.com/2022/07/03/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-evolve-education-group/Chapters0:00 Intro2:45 What's the current environment like?9:20 SHLX19:00 TRQ34:00 SAVE43:00 VTNR58:30 CLMT1:19:30 Wrapping up with HRBR and FAR
Jul 11, 202201:25:47
Conor Maguire's "Deep Breath, Deep Value" thesis on SOL Group

Conor Maguire's "Deep Breath, Deep Value" thesis on SOL Group

Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-valueChapters0:00 Intro2:50 SOL overview4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?23:10 Diving into the technical gas business25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option38:15 SOL's home care business43:20 SOL's emerging businesses49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?
Jul 01, 202257:36
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets June 2022 (podcast #114)

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets June 2022 (podcast #114)

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 What's on Chris's mind3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS8:15 PLAN's recut16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates29:15 State of the energy market32:00 CLR's take private bid39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets
Jun 23, 202257:51
Brian Laks from Old West on Tin's Alpha Potential

Brian Laks from Old West on Tin's Alpha Potential

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-wChapters0:00 Intro2:20 Tin market overview4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?13:25 Tin supply dynamics20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?35:15 Alphamin overview41:10 Alphamin's expansion project44:50 The strategic review process52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?1:16:15 Closing thoughts
Jun 16, 202201:19:43
Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on the Semis industry and his RMBS thesis

Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on the Semis industry and his RMBS thesis

Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.comDoug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=wChapters0:00 Intro3:00 Why semis are so compelling 4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?44:40 Diving into RMBS56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?1:14:30 closing thoughts
Jun 10, 202201:15:28
PJ Kurzweil sees smooth sailing ahead for BC

PJ Kurzweil sees smooth sailing ahead for BC

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEwPJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webChapters0:00 Intro3:25 BC overview5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?13:25 Sizing the boat market16:20 BC's recession risk20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership42:30 BC's improving free cash flow45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts
May 31, 202259:52
Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on T. Hasegawa

Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on T. Hasegawa

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=wChapters0:00 Intro2:25 T. Hasegawa overview6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?
May 27, 202236:56
Evan Tindell thinks Elon Musk will close the Twitter acquisition

Evan Tindell thinks Elon Musk will close the Twitter acquisition

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=wThis podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 Twitter overview6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels 30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?1:13:00 Event path odds
May 25, 202201:18:04
Alex Morris (TSOH) on $NFLX, $DIS, and the media space (podcast #108)

Alex Morris (TSOH) on $NFLX, $DIS, and the media space (podcast #108)

Ales Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix.Alex's first podcast appearance on Spotify: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1388122956837097482?s=20Alex's / TSOH substack: https://thescienceofhitting.comChapters0:00 Intro2:55 What's going on in media?6:15 What is the market missing with its media bearishness?8:45 Is media too competitive to invest in?14:35 Why is Netflix having a problem with breakout hits?18:30 Can you trust these companies when they say "trust us"?20:30 Is it true that Alex is a Marvel hater?22:30 NFLX's move into ad supported30:05 NFLX's (and the industry's) rising churn35:00 Why is DIS bundling when everyone else is consolidating into one product?38:05 Why hasn't Seinfeld broken out on NFLX?42:30 ESPN's streaming future49:00 Can you really make a profit streaming sports?54:15 Is Marvel fatigue real?58:50 Disney parks1:01:50 Opportunity cost of investing in DIS vs NFLX vs CMCSA (or something else)1:06:35 Berkshire buying Paramount
May 20, 202201:15:10
Luis Sanchez drives home the Endor thesis (Podcast #107)

Luis Sanchez drives home the Endor thesis (Podcast #107)

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, discusses his bull case for Endor AG, including why competitors can't recreate their product and how they benefit from the current boom in motor sports like F1 and NASCAR.My notes on Endor: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1526577674801520642?s=20&t=wqYSVMYKfG3kx8M9qhkB9wLuis's MOI pitch: https://twitter.com/LuisVSanchez777/status/1524707206574321666Chapters0:00 Intro2:20 Endor Overview14:40 Where is Luis most divergent from the market on Endor?24:15 How frequently do people upgrade?27:30 Why isn't Endor the typical COVID beneficiary about to fall off a cliff?36:00 How the current motor sport boom helps Endor42:00 Endor's valuation52:00 Endor's long term margin potential56:00 Endor's move into lower end products1:02:40 Luis's closing thoughts
May 19, 202201:08:21
Chris DeMuth's state of the markets May 2022

Chris DeMuth's state of the markets May 2022

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for a new monthly segment talking about the current state of the marketsMy note on event driven situations; https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-rich-set-of?s=wMy note on energy companies: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/when-are-the-activists-and-pe-funds?s=wChapters0:00 Intro1:55 Chris's state of the markets11:05 KSS16:40 The regulatory environment and its impact on deals22:15 ATVI / MSFT28:50 TWTR and Elon Musk39:00 Commodity / energy stocks disconnect from strip pricing
May 12, 202250:13
Bill Chen on Clipper Realty and the NYC apartment boom

Bill Chen on Clipper Realty and the NYC apartment boom

Bill Chen makes his second podcast appearance to discuss Clipper Realty (CLPR). Clipper owns a bunch of NYC apartment buildings, and Bill thinks the current boom in apartment rentals will drive strong returns for the company going forward.Bill's first podcast appearance: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/bill-chen-breaks-down-frphs-sotp?utm_source=url0:00 Intro2:05 CLPR overview4:35 Where is Bill most differentiated on CLPR?8:20 How does the post-COVID NYC apartment boom help CLPR?14:15 CLPR's leverage and balance sheet16:45 Why CLPR over SLG or another similar REIT?20:30 Are the long term trends against NYC?28:00 Rent control in NYC34:50 Why do people have cable companies and their landlords?39:30 CLPR and inflation41:10 "Regulatory inflation" and NYC's moat43:30 CLPR's controlling family47:15 Discussing cap rate environment for NYC apartment49:40 CLPR's development projects and potential value creation53:40 The safety of CLPR1:00:00 Bill makes me feel bad about my shoebox apartment
May 09, 202201:03:36
Bonus episode: Randy Baron updates $AMRS and $RNLX

Bonus episode: Randy Baron updates $AMRS and $RNLX

In this special bonus episode, Randy Baron provides updates on his prior podcast appearances on RNLX and AMRS.Randy's appearance on GDS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1517512427071545346?s=20&t=UyPsEybQEnbnE9riOPd5yQRandy's appearance on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20Randy's appearance on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro0:45 RNLX update4:05 AMRS update9:45 AMRS's November convert raise: good or bad?15:15 Valuing AMRS's consumer brands20:20 Should AMRS just be focusing on consumer brands?25:15 AMRS capital needs going forward28:40 AMRS's management comp and shareholder alignment
Apr 25, 202233:38
Randy Baron's bull case on $GDS

Randy Baron's bull case on $GDS

One of the people's favorite guests, Randy Baron, returns to the podcast to talk about his thesis for GDS. GDS is a Chinese data center company, and Randy goes in depth into the company, including why their tier 1 footprint gives them a moat, how GDS is trading at a discount to private market values, and why ADR and VIE fears may be overblown.My notes on GDS: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1516805266565644289?s=20&t=_7FcaMp4YYgZ1S4htJXz6gRandy's first podcast on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20Randy's second podcast on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20Tubes (data center book mentioned in the pod): https://amzn.to/3rKUxRqChapters0:00 Intro2:20 Data Center Overview9:10 Chinese Data Center overview11:20 Randy's history with GDS17:45 GDS valuation versus private market comps24:00 What does Randy see in GDS that the market is missing?28:45 GDS's international expansion plans34:00 Why does GDS's tier 1 footprint give them a moat?39:50 GDS's M&A and growth ambitions47:30 GDS's recent raise from Sequoia China and peer VNET's acquisition offer52:15 The China ADR and VIE issues58:55 Wrapping up the GDS thesis
Apr 22, 202201:02:49
Andrew Wagner on Copart (CPRT)

Andrew Wagner on Copart (CPRT)

Andrew Wagner, CIO of Wagner Road Capital Management, discusses his thesis on Copart (CPRT).My Copart (CPRT) notes; https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1514627334464323589?s=20&t=yjNrQXKvqPrQdJZ_Z00TdwAndrew's post on Copart: https://www.wagnerroadcm.com/blog/2022/4/8/what-i-like-about-copart-and-how-i-found-itAndrew's Book: The Economics of Online Games: https://amzn.to/3KNkAPnChapters0:00 Intro2:05 How Andrew found CPRT5:30 What is the market missing in CPRT?9:20 What does CPRT do?11:00 What is CPRT's moat?13:25 Does CPRT's network advantages give them an edge in expansion?15:00 Bear case #1: Valuation16:30 Bear case #2: COVID earnings boost18:50 Bear case #3: Why isn't CPRT buying back shares?23:30 Why is CPRT so much better than IAA?25:30 CPRT's management27:45 CPRT's land ownership33:15 CPRT's international operations35:20 Does CPRT's moat travel internationally?38:55 Ancillary services opportunity43:15 CPRT's long term tailwinds from "totaled" cars47:00 Do EVs change CPRT's economics?49:30 Car ownership trends and CPRT
Apr 18, 202253:03
Bob Robotti on WLK and the revenge of the old economy

Bob Robotti on WLK and the revenge of the old economy

Bob Robotti, founder of Robotti Advisors, discusses his thesis on Westlake Corporation (WLK) and why he thinks "old economy" stocks are poised for a comeback.My notes on WLK: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1513885052974899200?s=20&t=QiY-1L2H5U3GZ-S5YjGFwwChapters0:00 Intro2:50 WLK Overview6:10 Diving into WLK's segments and products10:45 WLK's favorable supply demand dynamics14:40 WLK's valuation18:55 WLK's control shareholders and family ownership22:15 How can WLK acquire so accretively?28:00 WLK's capital allocation31:45 Do WLK's segments make sense together?39:00 Why buy WLK versus peers?41:40 BLDR and the building products distributors44:45 Why "don't buy cyclicals at the top" might be wrong today51:00 What happens if tech stocks stumble / Revenge of the old economy
Apr 14, 202253:32
Conor Maguire sees value in Wickes

Conor Maguire sees value in Wickes

Conor Maguire, founder of Value Sits, discusses his thesis on Wickes (WIX:LSE). Wickes is a cheap retailer that Conor thinks is both recession resistant and suffering from typical post-spin dynamics.My notes on WIX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1511702344022609922?s=20&t=2lChWyeIhR6HZWw938bR8QConor's write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/wickes-group-plc-wixln?s=wChapters0:00 Intro1:55 Wickes Overview5:25 WIX value proposition and customer base10:25 Amazon risk12:00 WIX valuation15:15 WIX and the death of retail narrative18:10 Opportunity cost of WIX versus other retailers20:45 Spin-off dynamics21:55 Are the spin-off dynamics real?24:55 Does being independent accelerate WIX growth?28:05 The economics of store refits31:25 Management incentives34:05 WIX downside protection35:05 Do you read anything into WIX installer poor reviews?39:35 WIX Trade Pro side42:15 WIX digital sales44:15 Upcoming de-merger costs48:10 Other situations on Conor's radar49:10 Discussing DOLE51:20 Kenmare Resources
Apr 08, 202257:42
Swen Lorenz from Undervalued-Shares on $IWG

Swen Lorenz from Undervalued-Shares on $IWG

Swen Lorenz, founder of https://www.undervalued-shares.com, discusses his thesis on IWG. IWG owns a variety of co-working brands that compete with WeWork, and Swen believes IWG's scale, cheap valuation, and variety of catalysts makes them a terrific value investment.Note: We had some connectivity issues on Swen's side during the podcast; I tried to edit the best I could but ultimately it was either release as is or not at all! Hopefully it's not too much of a bother!My IWG Notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1509521982953558024?s=20&t=qUBbtL3_y1G8geiQ4tIFdAChapters0:00 Intro1:15 IWG Overview3:00 IWG versus WeWork6:00 IWG's scale11:00 How valuable is a network for co-work spaces?16:20 Why does IWG's multi-brand model make more sense than WeWork's one brand?18:55 IWG's burgeoning franchise model25:20 The recovery from COVID29:00 IWG's pandemic performance33:00 IWG's growth plans36:00 IWG's tech acquisition and spin off plans41:30 Why has IWG been hit so much harder than office-space peers?
Apr 04, 202247:53
Tim Weber updates $AMPY and talks the double dogs

Tim Weber updates $AMPY and talks the double dogs

Tim Weber, a private investor, returns to the podcast to provide an update on the $AMPY thesis and then discuss his double dog index, why it's been crushing the market so far this year, and his outlook for the dogs from here.Twebs double dog post: https://twebs.substack.com/p/introducing-the-double-dog-index?r=f389n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&s=rNote that there was a slight delay on Tim's end with the audio; I don't think it's a huge issue but wanted to assure you you are not going crazy if you hear a slight delay!Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 AMPY Update12:15 AMPY going forward19:15 The potential Eagle Ford sale and what it means of AMPY's PV-1024:05 AMPY's "generalist risk"26:45 Beta's California risk30:30 AMPY closing thoughts33:50 Discussing the double dogs index36:30 The United Steel (X) example42:10 What double dogs does Tim think are most attractive right now?47:20 Does the rush into the commodity space worry Tim?51:00 Should we be looking at broken growth instead of deep value right now?
Mar 21, 202257:57
Chris Colvin thinks Veritas is stealing $HMHC

Chris Colvin thinks Veritas is stealing $HMHC

Chris Colvin returns to the podcast to discuss why he invested in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC) and why he thinks the deal to sell HMHC to Veritas is much too cheap.Breach Inlet's letter to HMHC: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220223005845/en/Breach-Inlet-Capital-Sends-Public-Letter-to-Board-of-Houghton-Mifflin-HarcourtMy notes on HMHC: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1503704685861273604?s=20&t=BJwJj9NIUfEf4nip2Hlf4wChapters0:00 Intro1:15 HMHC Overview6:45 Situation Recap9:00 Why does Chris believe this deal is too cheap?13:05 HMHC's strange forecast and massive revision19:35 HMHC's advisors conflict of interest22:55 Why did management and the board chose to sell the company now?28:00 HMHC's roll up potential31:25 Veritas's other edtech plays33:35 How does this play out from here?34:05 What if the tender fails and Veritas walks away?49:00 Did HMHC's projections undersell the stimulus money impact?51:00 Closing thoughts
Mar 17, 202254:12
Louis Camhi on the opportunities in the SPAC market

Louis Camhi on the opportunities in the SPAC market

Louis Camhi provides an update on his thesis for ORGN and then walks through where he's finding opportunities in the SPAC market today.Louis's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1428710432848613377?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:45 Origin Update5:55 Origin today versus their SPAC projections8:45 When will we start seeing unit economics for ORGN plants?12:55 Talking about the SPAC market today17:30 Opportunities in current SPAC IPOs21:30 What pre-deal SPACs does Louis like currently?23:20 What to make of companies that are flying after the deSPAC27:30 Are pre-deal SPAC warrants attractive right now?36:45 CND / Circle45:40 What to make of deals like FMAC that reward shareholders for not redeeming?49:00 SPACs with rights like BENE and ESSC
Mar 07, 202253:42
Jeremy Raper is going FAR

Jeremy Raper is going FAR

Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his recent semi-activism at FAR Ltd. FAR recently received a bid that Jeremy thinks dramatically undervalues the company, so Jeremy is pressuring the company to cut costs and aggressively return capital to shareholders.My tweet thread on FAR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1496863885122539520?s=20&t=UK4pHbZdyRecEFP_I46_UQChapters0:00 Intro1:50 FAR overview7:20 Recapping the valuation case13:10 Acquirer optionality at FAR16:45 FAR's historical mismanagement23:10 What put FAR in play31:00 Jeremy's proposal for FAR36:45 What if management goes scorched earth here?48:40 Closing FAR thoughts50:15 LastMinute (LMN) discussion
Feb 28, 202258:32
Bill Chen breaks down $FRPH's SOTP

Bill Chen breaks down $FRPH's SOTP

Bill Chen, an institutional real estate investor, goes through his thesis for FRPH. FRPH is a conservatively managed real estate company with a great management team and a history of growing NAV and monetizing assets at opportunistic times.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....My notes on FRPH: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...A rough SOTP for FRPH: https://twitter.com/RhizomePartners/s...Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 FRPH overview3:30 Discussing FRPH's management team / majority shareholder8:00 Understanding the royalty business14:15 Valuing the royalty business21:20 FRPH's balance sheet and net cash22:15 FRPH's real estate value32:00 Pulling the SOTP together33:45 Opportunity cost and alpha at FRPH39:25 FRPH's history of selling assets40:30 How is FRPH still acquiring warehouse plays?43:00 Why FRPH versus other REITs under NAV?47:10 FRPH versus SRG52:00 Why isn't FRPH buying shares right now?57:00 What keeps Bill up at night for FRPH?1:02:30 Closing thoughts
Feb 22, 202201:04:13
Jon Boyar thinks SMG's stock is set to grow

Jon Boyar thinks SMG's stock is set to grow

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss his high conviction thesis for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG). SMG was a massive COVID beneficiary, and shares have sold off in kind with other COVID beneficiaries. Jon thinks the market is too pessimistic here, SMG's brands have Coke like market share, and the company has a rapidly growing "picks and shovels" cannabis business that he believes investors are basically getting for free at current pricesYou can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/My notes on SMG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1489600380854013952?s=20&t=c24bhjV0UhOWlZWjgULoCwBoyar's interview w/ SMG's CEO: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/podcasts/james-hagedorn-scotts-miracle-gro-chief-executive-officer-and-chairman-of-the-board-on-the-tremendous-opportunity-in-the-cannabis-space-potentially-spinning-off-the-fast-growing-hawthorne-division/Boyar's SMG overview: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/smg2021 Boyar's Forgotten Forty: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/andrewwalkerChapters0:00 Intro1:35 SMG Overview5:50 Why are SMG's brands so dominant?9:50 Customer concentration risk for SMG11:55 What happens to earnings as they lapse the "COVID boom"?17:50 Discussing Hawthorne21:30 What is Hawthorne's moat?24:45 Federal legalization and Hawthorne's sales distribution27:40 Why is Hawthorne's growth slowing right now?29:45 Hawthorne's cannabis investment strategy34:00 How SMG got into Hawthorne and look at it long term36:20 Breaking down SMG's SOTP40:00 The rationale for a potential Hawthorne spin45:40 Closing SMG thoughts48:25 Other interesting forgotten 40 names
Feb 07, 202253:60
Rich Howe thinks NXDT could be the next NXRT

Rich Howe thinks NXDT could be the next NXRT

Rich Howe, founder of stock spinoff investing, walks through the bull case for NXDT. NXDT is a closed end fund trading at a huge discount to NAV; the fund is planning to transition to a REIT and Rich thinks that makes the stock very catalyst rich. A related company, NXRT, pursued a similar move ~6 years ago and their stock has gone up ~6x since.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/My thread on NXDT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1488504533709991943?s=20&t=1i5ngJavxgKCHeNtsTWz1ARich's twitter: https://twitter.com/stockspinoffssStock Spinoff Investing: https://stockspinoffinvesting.com/premium/Chapters0:00 Intro1:40 NXDT overview6:55 Insider buying9:45 NXRT parallels12:00 NXDT's discount to NAV13:10 NXDT's level 3 assets and their valuation16:45 Vinebrook homes, one of NXDT's holdings24:30 Why has NXDT's NAV discount widened?27:10 NXDT investing into controlled entities31:30 What is NXDT's post-REIT strategy?34:30 Why is it taking so long to switch to a REIT?37:50 Will NXDT buyback shares?40:00 NXDT's fees43:30 Post-REIT dividend policy47:55 Closing NXDT thoughts50:00 Rich's favorite recent spin: JXN55:00 BHC: the spin Rich is looking forward to the most
Feb 03, 202201:00:49
Josh Young journeys through the energy sector

Josh Young journeys through the energy sector

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Investments, discusses his thoughts on the oil market and why he thinks energy prices are going much higher. Then he dives into his thesis for Journey Energy (JOY CN in Canada), a micro cap Canadian company that he thinks is dramatically undervalued.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/Josh's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Chapters0:00 Intro1:45 How Josh is thinking about the oil market today6:30 When do you know oil is high enough?10:25 Why aren't we seeing a big capex / opex ramp up from oil companies?15:45 OPEC's lack of incremental capacity19:35 Is calling for higher oil Big Short 2.0?24:50 Why the oil market today is not the oil market from 201428:50 Small technical difficulty!31:10 Why $100+ oil won't sap demand34:30 What do energy specialists look for that generalists miss?37:15 Do generalists lean towards worse assets than specialists?40:00 Journey Energy overview45:20 Breaking down Journey's SOTP48:15 Journey's growth and decline profile50:00 How are Journey's base assets positioned?53:30 What oil and gas price is baked into Journey currently?54:10 Journey's power plant initiative57:20 What type of power is Journey's power plant?58:50 Journey's Asset Retirement Obligations1:06:35 Closing thoughts on Journey
Jan 27, 202201:14:44
Keith Smith thinks TIGO is a cheap special situation

Keith Smith thinks TIGO is a cheap special situation

Keith Smith, Portfolio Manager at Bonhoeffer Capital, discusses his thesis for Millicom ($TIGO). TIGO is trading at a super low multiple and a recent deal that the CEO described as a "no brainer" will result in a rights offering for TIGO, which could set the stock up as a special situation as well. Keith breaks down why he likes TIGO versus other telecom stocks, why he thinks the stock is so cheap, and the hidden value potential at TIGO money.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....My notes on TIGO: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Keith's twitter: https://twitter.com/Bonhoeffer_KDSChapters0:00 Intro1:20 TIGO overview4:30 How TIGO's ownership culture sets them apart8:30 TIGO background11:50 More on TIGO's culture and their CHTR like model15:55 Why TIGO over other telecoms like LILAK or LUMN?23:30 TIGO money, TIGO's big fintech call option31:00 Discussing TIGO's largest market, Guatemala36:00 Breaking down TIGO's rights offering43:00 Is TIGO's equity focused culture a red flag?46:05 A mini-rant on Liberty's management compensation48:40 Could TIGO be a perennial value trap?54:20 LILAK's 2019 bid for TIGO: value marker or red flag?58:30 Keith's closing TIGO thoughts1:02:30 Bonus discussion on broadcasters like NXST
Jan 24, 202201:09:57
Vadim Perelman's Basic-Fit thesis $BFIT

Vadim Perelman's Basic-Fit thesis $BFIT

Vadim Perelman goes through his thesis on Basic-Fit (BFIT) and why he thinks it could be a ~10x in ~10 years. Key topics include a detailed walk through the unit economics and why competitors won’t be able to open new gyms once the company “fortresses” their markets.My notes on BFIT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Vadim's BFIT write up: https://punchcardstocks.substack.com/...Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 BFIT intro6:55 The key BFIT question: is 30%+ ROIC sustainable for gyms15:00 Why winning the "land grab" precludes competitors in local markets20:55 How BFIT's scale gives them a cost advantage25:00 Quick mentions of BFIT's marketing and rent advantages30:00 Comping BFIT's costs to UK low cost peers32:50 Why aren't we seeing a faster land share grab by competitors?40:15 Why isn't BFIT pursuing a franchise model?46:55 Could BFIT's ROIC go higher over time as penetration goes up?51:35 What bear cases does Vadim worry about?56:35 Store aging risk / underinvesting in MCX59:45 How BFIT uses their scale to bring down employee costs and create a moat1:05:15 Closing thoughts
Jan 13, 202201:05:46
Chris DeMuth's best idea for 2022 is $RENN

Chris DeMuth's best idea for 2022 is $RENN

Chris DeMuth discusses his best idea for 2022, RENN. RENN was on a previous podcast pitched by Ian Bezek as a legal play; since then, RENN settled with minority shareholders for a record payout. However, in December, RENN's shares sold off massively as a judge rejected their proposed settlement with minority shareholders and ruled the payout should instead go to former shareholders; Chris explains why he thinks that ruling is wrong and likely to be overturned.Podcast with Ian Bezek on RENN from April 2021: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chris's article on RENN: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478529-renren-is-so-bad-its-good Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 RENN background4:20 What's happened since the last RENN podcast8:20 The settlement announcement in October12:35 What happens in December / why the stock craters19:45 Why are current shareholders appealing the judge's ruling?24:00 What does a derivative suit mean and why is that important?30:00 Were there any precedents for former shareholders getting the settlement payout?35:30 Discussing the unique minority shareholder only payout38:50 Could the settlement be recut to pay directly to the company?44:50 What does the timeline going forward look like?46:30 What happens to the "excess legal fees"?54:30 Why a quick decision on the appeal could be good57:35 What odds does Chris give for the appeal winning?1:00:10 Bear push back: The Sprint / TMUS precedent1:05:40 Closing thoughtsSHOW LESS
Jan 09, 202201:09:39
Jacob Rubin sees value in $GLNG

Jacob Rubin sees value in $GLNG

In Part 2 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin discusses his thesis for GLNG, including why the company trades at a huge discount to its SOTP and why an upcoming spin can delever the core business and serve as a catalyst for the company.Part 1 of the podcast on FTAI: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/podcast-87-jacob-rubin-is-flyingMy notes on GLNG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1471134280906682371?s=20Jacob's research on GLNG: http://philosophycap.com/research.htmlChapters0:00 Intro1:35 GLNG overview5:55 GLNG's different pieces10:30 Discussing GLNG debt and convert maturity13:10 Focusing on the main value driver, FLNG22:00 GLNG's growth asset, Gimi24:45 GLNG SOTP math27:05 Why is the market sleeping on the current environment for GLNG?29:45 Capital allocation and GLNG's lack of share buyback34:55 Historical issues with shipping in general37:30 Closing thoughts
Dec 21, 202139:22
Jacob Rubin is flying with $FTAI

Jacob Rubin is flying with $FTAI

In Part 1 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin returns to the podcast. We start by wrapping up his prior podcast appearance on ESGC, and then we move into discussing FTAI and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued and an upcoming spinoff could unlock significant value.My FTAI notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1470841498048634885?s=20Jacob's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1366760857590521861?s=20Jacob's research on FTAI: http://philosophycap.com/research.htmlChapters0:00 Intro2:20 ESGC follow up10:15 FTAI overview16:00 How a spinoff and eliminating K-1's could catalyze FTAI22:05 FTAI's aerospace segment32:05 The upside from FTAI's parts manufacturing36:55 Is engine leasing really a good business?45:30 Discussing FTAI's external management structure50:30 FTAI's infrastructure segment52:05 FTAI's management team54:20 More on FTAI's different infrastructure assets
Dec 17, 202157:05
Kuppy is active on $LEE

Kuppy is active on $LEE

Kuppy comes on the show to discuss his recent activism at LEE and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued.My notes on LEE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Kuppy's LEE thesis: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...KEDM: https://www.kedm.com/what-is-kedm/Chapters0:00 Intro2:00 LEE Overview7:55 Why does Kuppy think Alden's LEE offer is so undervalued?12:35 Why does small town, local news offer a moat?17:30 Is LEE's digital growth real or is it just small base effect?20:20 Can the LEE team execute the growth / digital opportunity?30:15 Why did Berkshire sell their newspaper to LEE if the growth is so attractive?35:40 Is TownNews a hidden gem?40:00 What other levers can LEE pull to juice growth?42:15 Online gambling upside for newspapers44:30 Valuing LEE"s digital side51:20 Why are papers like Tribune selling if the outlook for digital is so good?53:35 Closing thoughts
Dec 16, 202157:02
Chris McIntyre thinks $MSGE is a cheap stock

Chris McIntyre thinks $MSGE is a cheap stock

Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss his belief that MSGE is a  cheap stock. Key topics include how to look at the Sphere, why the Dolans might not be as bad as you think, and why he thinks the company will gush free cash flow once the Sphere is completed.My notes on MSGE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1469002333908606979?s=20Chris's website / presentation on MSGE: https://msgeisacheapstock.com/presi.htmlMy podcast with Jon Boyar on the awful MSGE / MSGN deal: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1379040448149356546?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 MSGE overview4:45 The elephant in the room: should MSGE get a "Dolan Discount?"9:30 Discussing The Sphere14:25 The cost escalation history of the Sphere27:10 What's the outlook for RSNs in general and MSGN in particular?30:30 Why was combining MSGN with MSGE the right move?33:30 Valuing MSGN given the turmoil in RSNs36:55 How does MSGN transition to a D2C world?41:50 More on MSGN's value50:05 What does the income statement look like as MSGN transitions?59:55 Valuing Tao and The Rockettes1:03:20 Valuing the Garden1:08:35 Closing thoughts and a quick SOTP
Dec 14, 202101:13:04
Sleepwell and Enlightened are allied in the $ALLY bull case

Sleepwell and Enlightened are allied in the $ALLY bull case

Sleepwell Capital and Enlightened Capital discuss their thesis for Ally $ALLY. Ally trades for just over book value despite posting ROEs well in excess of their cost of capital; Sleep and Enlightened both believe their valuable deposit franchise, reasonable valuation, and share repurchase program will combine to produce attractive returns for shareholders over the next few years.My notes on ALLY: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1467960317242134537?s=20Enlightened's twitter: https://twitter.com/CultivatewealthSleep's twitter: https://twitter.com/SleepwellCapEnlightened's Ally write up: https://enlightenedcapital.substack.com/p/ally-financial-ally-investment-analysisTSOH Ally write up: https://thescienceofhitting.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:10 ALLY overview and history5:00 Laying out the ALLY bull thesis8:25 The ALLY valuation case9:35 How good is ALLY's deposit base?14:55 Does ALLY have a moat on their lending standards?20:10 Discussing ALLY's strategic relationship24:10 What is the market pricing into ALLY's stock?28:20 ALLY's capital allocation (acquisitions and share repurchases)33:15 Comping ALLY to a neo-bank35:50 Ally's insider incentive and share ownership (or lack thereof)38:45 Discussing Ally's exec comp and potential misalignment41:20 Of all the stocks in the world, why is ALLY worth buying?48:45 The decline of car ownership and rise of EVs as a tail risk52:20 More on what ALLY would do if auto loan demand decreased dramatically56:20 What's the end game for ALLY?58:45 Would ALLY be a strategic target for M&A?1:03:20 Closing thoughts
Dec 13, 202101:04:47
Andrew Freedman walks through the TMT space

Andrew Freedman walks through the TMT space

Andrew Freedman, managing director at Hedgeye, walks through the TMT landscape post earnings. Key topics include how he looks at legacy media company, why he's bearish PINS and SNAP but long TWTR, and his wories that the economics of streaming simply don't work.Andrew's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/HedgeyeCommChapters0:00 Intro1:15 Andrew's Process5:15 Discussing long TWTR vs short SNAP / PINS9:35 Does the strategic interest around PINS worry you?15:20 What's going on with TWTR right now?32:30 Discussing legacy media (starting with VIAC)37:10 Comping VIAC's valuation versus NXST41:10 Why does Andrew have a buy rating on NFLX?45:35 What should Disney do with ESPN?47:30 Does the MGM / Amazon deal suggest all of legacy media is undervalued?51:00 How Andrew looks at the Discovery / Warner merger1:00:40 Valuing VIAC's Pluto asset1:04:15 Closing thoughts and Andrew's favorite pick
Dec 06, 202101:07:00
Ari Lazar sees value in $KW

Ari Lazar sees value in $KW

Ari Lazar, senior analyst at RGA investment advisors, discusses his bull case for KW. Ari believes KW trades at a material discount to NAV, and that discount should shrink as the company's growth starts to ramp up in the near future.My tweet thread on KW: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1465714725254307840?s=20RGA's Q3 letter w/ KW discussion: https://www.rgaia.com/commentary/q4-2021-investment-commentary-looking-inward-and-looking-westward/Chapters0:00 Intro1:25 KW Overview2:45 How KW fits into RGA's investment framework6:35 KW history8:30 Discussing the KWE / KW deal from ~201711:30 What's KW been doing since the KWE deal?18:35 Diving into KW's SOTP and their multifamily properties20:45 Slight technical difficulty21:25 Continued discussion of KW's SOTP / multifamily assets23:05 KW"s office assets29:45 How do you get comfortable when cap rates are this low?32:30 KW's development asset value40:20 Valuing KW's asset management business50:10 Don't all real estate companies trade at a discount to NAV?55:25 Is there financial engineering potential / could KW split into a REIT?1:02:00 Does KW belong on the Mount Rushmore of value traps?
Dec 02, 202101:09:10
Richard Sosa sees value in DFIN's niche

Richard Sosa sees value in DFIN's niche

Richard Sosa, host of the Riches in Niches podcast, discusses his thesis on Donnelly Financial (DFIN). Despite a strong recent run, DFIN trades at a value multiple, and Richard breaks down all the reasons why he thinks the stock is too cheap and why DFIN is a huge beneficiary of the current SPAC / IPO boom.My twitter background thread on DFIN: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1460661067395305479?s=20Riches in Niches podcast twitter: @RichesNichesPodChapters0:00 Intro1:40 Some background on Richard4:10 Why Richard likes niches5:10 DFIN overview10:45 DFIN's classic spin dynamics14:35 DFIN's public to private headwinds before the SPAC boom18:30 Regulatory headwinds in the print business21:55 More DFIN background29:30 What the capital markets business does and how it benefits from the M&A / SPAC boom37:00 Comping DFIN to Workiva39:40 How sticky is DFIN?43:20 Breaking down DFIN's valuation46:30 Is DFIN's shifting segment disclosure concerning?50:15 Why is the market trading DFIN at such a low multiple?53:25 Is management and the board fully aligned here?57:00 DFIN's history of capital returns1:02:25 More on DFIN's multiple1:04:55 Closing thoughts
Nov 18, 202101:06:41
Evan Tindell sees value in $TME

Evan Tindell sees value in $TME

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the value he sees in Tencent Music (TME). Key topics include why he's not worried about TME's controlling shareholder or VIE structure, and why he thinks the stock is significantly undervalued.My Twitter thread on TME: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1458813448217935874?s=20Bireme Capital's website: https://www.biremecapital.com/disclaimer.htmlChapters0:00 Intro1:05 TME Overview1:40 History of shorting Chinese reverse merger4:30 More background on TME7:55 How similar is TME to Spotify?20:00 Why is TME the best way to play the current panic in China stocks?24:30 Can we trust Tencent as TME's controlling shareholder?28:15 The VIE structure risk35:30 How did TME come to be so dominant in Chinese music streaming?38:10 TME's cash rich balance sheet43:00 TME's valuation49:00 Discussing Spotify's valuation in relation to TME55:50 What risk to TME worries Evan the most?57:40 Is Evan attracted to messy ownership / control situations?1:03:30 Brief discussion of Cogeco's current situation
Nov 15, 202101:07:51
Eric Markowitz worms his way through the Tesla bull thesis... plus a little Spotify $SPOT $TSLA

Eric Markowitz worms his way through the Tesla bull thesis... plus a little Spotify $SPOT $TSLA

Eric Markowitz, Director of research at Worm Capital, discusses the bull thesis for Tesla. Key topics include all of Tesla's growth options, the biggest misperceptions of Tesla, and why comparing Tesla's valuation to legacy auto manufacturers doesn't make sense.We wrap up with 15 minutes of discussion on Spotify and what's misunderstood with that company as well.Reading links:Worm's Q3 letter: https://www.wormcapital.com/the-wormhole-source/q3-2021My background tweet on Tesla: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1458061963439878145?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:15 Tesla overview4:15 Tesla's big misperceptions5:35 How is Tesla different than other car companies?8:45 Tesla's neural nets and R&D efficiency13:30 Tesla's recruiting edge16:55 Worm's investing philosophy19:05 The power of winner take most markets23:30 Framing Tesla's valuation26:05 How strong is Tesla's manufacturing edge?28:30 Does competition actually expand the EV industry?31:30 What's the most exciting growth optionality at Tesla?35:20 Tesla's battery opportunity36:50 Tesla's red flags and the Solar City Potemkin village43:05 Tesla's brand strength45:35 The myth of the Tesla killer49:45 Flipping to Spotify49:55 What's the biggest misperception with SPOT?52:05 Spotify as Netflix 2.054:20 Spotify's advertising opportunity56:15 What worries Eric most about Spotify?59:40 Spotify's relationship with labels
Nov 10, 202101:02:02
Aaron Edelheit is high on Cannabis stocks

Aaron Edelheit is high on Cannabis stocks

Aaron Edelheit returns to the podcast to discuss all of the opportunities he's seeing in the cannabis world and why he's chosen now to launch a Cannabis focused fund.Aaron's Cannabis manifesto: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-cannabis-manifestoSeth Rogen profile I mention during the pod: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/magazine/seth-rogen.htmlChapters:0:00 Intro2:45 Why is Aaron launching a cannabis fund now?12:00 Professional athletes and cannabis16:55 How Cannabis today reminds Aaron of single family homes after the GFC26:50 Aaron's views on federal legalization37:35 Is Aaron more interested in the direct cannabis plays or the "picks and shovel" providers?45:50 Using Verano to highlight the growth and valuations Aaron is seeing54:00 Will the industry stay vertically integrated, or will we start seeing more focused players?58:55 The tax issues with cannabis plays and why EBITDA is so important here
Nov 04, 202101:05:03
Jeremy Raper discusses POSaBIT $POSAF

Jeremy Raper discusses POSaBIT $POSAF

Jeremy Raper makes his record fifth podcast appearance to discuss his latest high conviction idea: POSaBIT (POSAF). POSaBIT is a microcap company trading on a very small foreign exchange, so risk is certainly elevated here and listeners should remember to do their own work / this is not investing advice. However, Jeremy believes that the company's strong growth and big moat far outweigh the various red flags and risk around it, and that the stock is significantly undervalued based on where much slower growing peers are trading.Jeremy's seeking alpha article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462310-posabit-systems-3x-upside-potentialChapters0:00 Intro2:00 POSaBIT overview14:30 Diving into POSaBIT's moat22:10 Why POSaBIT's take rate is sustainable28:45 If Cannabis got legalized tomorrow, what would happen to POSaBIT?33:30 Is private equity rolling up the industry a risk?37:10 Discussing valuation46:55 Breaking down the RTO / reverse merger red flag53:10 Jeremy's closing thoughts
Nov 03, 202156:46
Martin Werner of DD3 Capital on the Codere / DDMX SPAC deal

Martin Werner of DD3 Capital on the Codere / DDMX SPAC deal

Martin Werner, co-founding partner of DD3 Capital, discusses DDMX's deal to deSPAC with Codere Online. Key topics include what DDMX was looking for in a deal, how DDMX worked with their partners in structuring their deal, and why DDMX thinks Codere Online's omnichannel presence gives them a leg up in attacking and winning Latam markets. Towards the end, Martin discusses how he's looking at Betterware (BWMX, which was DD3's first SPAC) and what DD3 will be looking at in their SPAC going forward.Chapters0:00 Intro1:45 What DDMX was looking for in a deal3:10 DDMX's proxy and the companies they passed on8:30 DDMX's forward purchase agreement with Baron Funds12:35 What happened between contacting Codere in January and signing the BCA in June?15:15 What attracted DDMX to Codere online?18:40 Codere's Spanish market share and outlook21:55 Discussing Codere's projections and the assumptions behind them25:05 Codere's longer term projection and financials26:00 How lower redemptions will allow Codere to accelerate growth28:00 Codere's phase 3 plans to move into the U.S. market31:35 Similarities between Codere Online and Golden Nugget Online32:30 Why DDMX isn't subject to the winner's curse35:30 Wrapping up the Codere discussion36:35 Betterware (BWMX) discussion39:55 Breaking down the distributor churn at BWMX44:10 Comparing BWMX's post-COVID slowdown to cable46:30 BWMX near term headwinds48:05 What DD3 looks when deSPACing companies
Nov 02, 202151:43
Nitin Sacheti breaks down $VATE's SOTP

Nitin Sacheti breaks down $VATE's SOTP

Nitin Sacheti. CIO of Papyrus Capital and PM at ARS Investment Partners, breaks down his thesis for Innovate (VATE). VATE used to be known as HCHC. HCHC was a mishmash of interesting but disparate assets with a huge cost base. Following an activist battle in late 2019 / early 2020, a new management team was brought in and they have sold off noncore assets while dramatically reduing corporate overhead. Nitin believes the remaining assets are all uniquely valuable, and each could be worth more than VATE's current market cap on their own. With several looming catalysts and inflection points, Nitin thinks the next year or two could cause the market to rerate VATE closer to its intrinsic value.My thread on $VATE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1452377035897200653?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 VATE Overview3:05 Segment #1: DBM Overview5:15 Segment #2: Life Sciences Overview7:15 Segment #3: Broadcasting Overview12:10 Discussing VATE's new management team21:45 Breaking down the Broadcast business30:00 Pushing back on the broadcast business plan35:50 How to value broadcast's spectrum37:55 Is broadcast spectrum still valuable in a 5G world?42:20 Discussing DBM's moat and value47:40 What does R2 (life science's main asset) do?53:20 Walking through VATE's SOTP value1:00:50 How to look at VATE's recent related party deals1:05:25 Discussing VATE's chairman and largest shareholder1:08:15 What's the endgame for VATE?Additional disclaimer: Today’s discussion may contain forward looking statements all statements made that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainty; actual results may differ materially. Please refer to ARS's website for important legal and disclosure information: www.arsinvestmentpartners.com
Oct 26, 202101:13:01
Felix Narhi discusses Stitch Fix $SFIX

Felix Narhi discusses Stitch Fix $SFIX

Felix Narhi, CIO and Portfolio Manager at PenderFund, discusses his investment in Stitch Fix (SFIX). Key topics include what Stitch Fix's Act 2 looks like, why negative anecdata from first time users doesn't worry Felix, and what separates Stitch Fix from other online retailers.Felix's Q2 letter: https://www.penderfund.com/commentaries/the-managers-commentary-q2-2021-2/My SFIX tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1450509121661308928?s=20Felix's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PenderFelixChapters0:00 Intro1:10 Stitch Fix Overview2:40 Addressing the negative anecdata6:30 What does SFIX's transition to Act 2 look like?9:10 Why is SFIX's data and data scientist focus an advantage?16:50 What would an Act 3 look like?19:35 Is it concerning Katrina Lake (the founder) stepped down as CEO?23:45 Discussing the stylist hours worked controversy31:30 Stitch Fix's inventory changes35:30 Will brands pull from Stitch Fix at some point in the future?41:15 Will Stitch Fix ever charge for the data they give brands?44:30 Why isn't Stitch Fix growing faster?49:50 Quantifying Stitch Fix's valuation54:20 Stitch Fix's private market and strategic value57:30 Does Stitch Fix need physical locations?
Oct 20, 202101:05:32
Randy Baron discusses Renalytix $RNLX

Randy Baron discusses Renalytix $RNLX

Randy Baron, one of the most popular YAVP guests, returns to discuss his investment thesis on Renalytix (RNLX). Randy sees similarities between RNLX and EXAS, which was a controversial stock that has rocketed over the last few years as the company's diagnostic product gained momentum. While not without risk, Randy thinks RNLX could be even bigger if successful as they are attacking the much larger Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market, and he discusses all of the signs he sees that the company is about to inflect.Randy's first appearance on Amyris (AMRS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKxUHfCoQQ&t=1sChapters0:00 Intro1:20 RNLX overview8:55 Where does RNLX fall into CKD?14:00 Why now is the time for RNLX in CKD20:40 How RNLX can operate even without MICT24:30 More on RNLX and Medicare25:30 When will RNLX get FDA approval?33:40 What if RNLX doesn't get FDA approval?37:30 RNLX's CEO and founder, James McCullough43:40 Why is RNLX so under the radar?46:40 Comping RNLX to Theranos50:00 Randy's closing thoughts
Oct 14, 202153:26
Tim Weber is bullish $AMPY despite the oil spill

Tim Weber is bullish $AMPY despite the oil spill

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 Extra Disclosures3:10 AMPY Overview6:25 Diving into the spill9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-1039:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?56:00 Tim's closing thoughts
Oct 08, 202101:01:48
Leo Kang from Plum Capital on $ATTO

Leo Kang from Plum Capital on $ATTO

Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at... My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 ATTO overview3:15 ATTO's ownership history7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive13:50 Discussing valuation15:30 ATTO's operating momentum18:30 What does ATTO do?22:30 How does ATTO compete with?24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract40:20 Comping peer multiples43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk52:55 Closing thoughts
Sep 30, 202156:26
Ben Claremon on $LUMN

Ben Claremon on $LUMN

Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdUBen's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1Chapters0:00 Intro1:35 Lumen Overview5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)1:03:25 Closing thoughts
Sep 27, 202101:09:45
The Bear Cave is Watching $YOU

The Bear Cave is Watching $YOU

Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports. The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 Clear Overview3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating21:10 How Clear calculates their member count23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles29:55 Clear's growth opportunities33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?48:30 Closing thoughts
Sep 24, 202149:30
Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel on their speculative deep value play, $AAMC

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel on their speculative deep value play, $AAMC

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMkThomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMAChapters0:00 Intro1:30 AAMC overview6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?11:40 Bill Erbey's background16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT28:00 Discussing a fix and flip34:55 Other possible deals36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit41:55 AAMC's cash burn43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?45:00 Closing thoughts
Sep 10, 202146:27
Kyler Hasson helps me bag hold $ATUS

Kyler Hasson helps me bag hold $ATUS

Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/alticeMy write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stockChapters0:00 Intro1:23 ATUS overview2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 20184:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts47:45 What could break the cable thesis?56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk58:30 Cable regulatory concerns1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts
Sep 08, 202101:12:09
Brian Laks covers the #uranium and Nexgen bull cases $NXE

Brian Laks covers the #uranium and Nexgen bull cases $NXE

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaksKuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 Uranium overview2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance10:15 Uranium's cycles since 200015:15 Why is the cycle happening now?19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?58:40 Nexgen's base case upsideSHOW LESS
Sep 04, 202101:02:05
Jon Cukiewar lays out the goeasy thesis $GSY $EHMEF

Jon Cukiewar lays out the goeasy thesis $GSY $EHMEF

Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwarSohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer Chapters0:00 Intro1:40 goeasy overview and background15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition59;40 Jon's closing thoughts
Sep 01, 202101:07:02
A $GOED investment thesis that WARRANTs a look with Thomas Braziel

A $GOED investment thesis that WARRANTs a look with Thomas Braziel

Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade3:10 $GOED overview8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded11:00 $GOED merger / financing background14:00 The massive stock offering discussion17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?31:20 GOED's rebate accounting34:20 Capital allocation going forward37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards38:30 GOED management's alignment40:05 GOED's activist potential43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch49:30 How capital light will GOED be?52:10 Quick Tesla discussion53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)
Aug 26, 202155:17
Louis Camhi presents an ORIGINal investment thesis $ORGN

Louis Camhi presents an ORIGINal investment thesis $ORGN

Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis. Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystChapters0:00 Intro1:25 Origin overview4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price27:50 Construction cost risk32:25 Various upside and downside risks35:00 Origin's financing plans39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention
Aug 20, 202101:05:28
Mike Mitchell on his big bet on lumber and GreenFirst $ICLTF

Mike Mitchell on his big bet on lumber and GreenFirst $ICLTF

Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st... Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 GreenFirst overview and background6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions22:50 Betting on great management teams28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?
Aug 18, 202101:17:32
Sean Iddings on the bull case for $EXPI

Sean Iddings on the bull case for $EXPI

Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_seanMy notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20 Chapters0:00 Intro1:25 What is EXPI?8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?45:50 Sean's closing thoughts
Aug 06, 202151:43
Chris Krug from Chatham Harbor Capital on Performant $PFMT

Chris Krug from Chatham Harbor Capital on Performant $PFMT

Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline4:40 PFMT business overview15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?44:20 PFMT's capital allocation47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?49:15 What could kill this investment?53:10 Closing thoughtsSHOW LESS
Jul 28, 202157:39
Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Burford's bull case

Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Burford's bull case

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:35 Burford Overview6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?37:10 How do you value Burford?42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team1:23:45 Closing thoughts
Jul 18, 202101:26:55
Adam Lindsay takes a TRIP through the LTRPA bull thesis

Adam Lindsay takes a TRIP through the LTRPA bull thesis

Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.Adam's email: adam@pacp.comChapters0:00 Intro1:30 TRIP Overview6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP40:30 TRIP valuation43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?
Jul 14, 202157:41
Kyle Cerminara on deSPACing OppFi with $FGNA

Kyle Cerminara on deSPACing OppFi with $FGNA

Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminaraOppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=excludeChapters0:00 Intro1:30 OppFi overview9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?19:00 OppFi's valuation22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?
Jul 08, 202101:11:39
Uncovering CATO's value with Mike Melby

Uncovering CATO's value with Mike Melby

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Cato Overview5:45 Cato's target demographics8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently15:30 Discussing CATO's management22:05 Valuing CATO's land27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO
Jun 30, 202146:14
Brian Mosoff from Ether Capital on the bull case for Ether

Brian Mosoff from Ether Capital on the bull case for Ether

Brian Mosoff, CEO of Ether Capital Corp, does a deep dive into the investment case for Ethereum. Key topics include how Ethereum is different than Bitcoin, how proof of stake and EIP-1559 will improve the Ethereum ecosystem, and why Ethereum today looks like investing in computer operating systems in the early 80s.Disclosure: nothing in here is investing advice. Listeners/viewers should remember crypto is extremely risky and do their own work!Brian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/brianmosoffEther Capital's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ethcapChapters0:00 Intro1:35 Brian's background2:40 How is Ethereum different than Bitcoin?10:55 Ether as the operating system / highway for Web 3.016:20 Who are the "operating system" competitors for Ether23:05 How ether's transaction fee lead creates a big network effect27:50 How do you value Ethereum?30:50 Comparing crypto today to the dotcom bubble37:00 Can you value Ether of their fee run rate?47:00 Discussing staking and proof of stake58:50 What is EIP-1559?1:11:45 What is the risk to staking?1:13:50 Brian's closing thoughtsSHOW LESS
Jun 29, 202101:21:01
Randy Baron from Pinnacle Associates discusses Amyris's lead in synthetic biology

Randy Baron from Pinnacle Associates discusses Amyris's lead in synthetic biology

Randy Baron, Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Associates, gives an overview of the Synthetic Biology space. Randy thinks "the 21st century is going to be a century of biology," and he discusses all the ways synthetic biology can change the world and why he thinks Amyris (AMRS) could be the biggest winner given their head start in the space.Randy's Barron's write up on Synthetic Biology: https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-investors-guide-to-the-promise-of-synthetic-biology-51623275429My thread with AMRS management quotes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407372814466826240 Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Synthetic Biology Overview9:00 Amyris's founding treating malaria12:30 Squalene oil overview19:00 What's the barrier to entry for synthetic biology?23:45 Why is scaling so hard in synthetic biology?25:05 Comping AMRS to ZY (Zymergen)31:45 Discussing the value of AMRS's scaled molecules and pipeline35:00 AMRS's consumer brands37:20 Is having consumer brands and a research arm too good to be true?39:20 How AMRS could improve vaccines44:55 AMRS's zero calorie product, Purecane49:50 Quantifying the value of AMRS's different parts (SOTP)1:01:00 Discussing management and John Doerr's involvement1:06:00 How do you evaluate AMRS's CEO?1:11:45 Final thoughts
Jun 23, 202101:13:42
James Elbaor is investing in Dan Loeb at a Discount $TPOU

James Elbaor is investing in Dan Loeb at a Discount $TPOU

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Third Point Investors (TPOU; trades in London). TPOU is a closed-end investment company that invests into Third Point, Dan Loeb's hedge fund. TPOU consistently trades at a discount to NAV, and James thinks the combination of Third Point's investing prowess and TPOU's innovative buyback/tender mechanism creates a unique opportunity to generate attractive returns.James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaorAsset Value's May 26, 2021 activist letter to TPOU: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2021/05/AVI-Open-Letter-to-TPIL-Vote-Co_2.pdfChapters0:00 Intro1:30 TPOU Overview3:55 Why invest in TPOU instead of Third Point directly?7:00 Third Point's return profile, past and forward looking14:20 TPOU's discount and unique tender mechanism17:30 Laying out a base case IRR to a potential March 31, 2024 tender27:30 Pushback #1: Doesn't this deserve a discount given the fee structure?34:25 Pushbuck #2: The corporate governance issues raised by Asset Value's letter43:30 TPOU tax consequences for U.S. investors45:05 Final thoughts on TPOU50:00 Quick hit on Third Point / Vivendi / PSTH / UMG
Jun 17, 202154:36
Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Blackstone Minerals $BSM

Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Blackstone Minerals $BSM

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Blackstone Minerals (BSM). Key points include how some of the company's undeveloped acreage could be a massive call option, how rising commodity prices impact BSM's value, and how BSM compares to other loose peers.Side note: I had a puppy emergency for the last ten minutes of this podcast; you might see me glancing to the side a bit as my dog (Penny) tries to get my attention. I still think the conversation was great, but sorry for that!Emeth Value's website: https://www.emethvaluecapital.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Blackstone Minerals (BSM) overview4:40 How mineral rights work7:15 Contrasting BSM versus TPL11:50 How does BSM's acreage quality compare to TPL15:10 BSM's LP structure versus traditional C-corps18:55 Why BSM's NPV reserve calculation understates their value23:25 What commodity prices are currently baked into BSM's share price?31:30 Discussing BSM's GP33:10 How their capex / farm out agreements work37:45 Management's track record and pandemic performance43:25 Drilling outlook for BSM's acreage50:00 Diving into BSM's Austin Chalk acreage53:15 Puppy emergency driven conclusion
Jun 10, 202154:24
Discussing the Cannabis opportunity and Glass House Group with Aaron Edelheit

Discussing the Cannabis opportunity and Glass House Group with Aaron Edelheit

Aaron Edelheit, founder of Mindset Capital and author of The Hard Break, comes on to discuss his thesis for investing in cannabis in general and Glass House Group in particular. Key topics include why interstate legalization could come sooner than later, how Glass House's California locations are a huge asset, and why U.S. Cannabis stocks trade don't trade in the U.S.Aaron's Book, The Hard Break: https://amzn.to/34dKyYLAaron's article on Glass House: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-greenhouse-in-americaAaron's article on interstate commerce: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/are-interstate-commerce-restrictionsChapters0:00 Intro2:00 Disclaimer2:25 Why is investing in cannabis interesting now?11:00 Why is cannabis not a complete commodity once legalized?16:10 Why is California so great for growing cannabis?25:05 How retail can be a moat in cannabis29:40 Discussing the three way SPAC merger that will form Glass House38:30 When will cannabis go interstate?43:15 How to think about valuation of Glass House47:00 What's the difference between BRND in Canada and MRCQF on OTC?
May 25, 202149:23
Bitcoin futures arb and trading the crypto market with David Fauchier

Bitcoin futures arb and trading the crypto market with David Fauchier

The crypto market currently feels like the wild wild west. It can take only a week or two to run through a full cycle (a bull and a bear market), and coins that are explicitly a joke can be valued at billions of dollars on the back of a tweet from the right celebrity. David Fauchier, fund manager at Nickel Digital, pops on to discuss how a professional approaches investing in the crypto world. Topics include bitcoin future arb, how to approach the risk of fraud or an exchange blowing up, and why it makes more sense to invest in crypto directly than to invest in mining.My post on BlockFi and Bitcoin Futures Arb: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2021/...David's Twitter: https://twitter.com/dfauchierDavid's other podcast covering the crypto market: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/podcas...Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 Overview of Nickel Digital and David's background4:55 Bitcoin futures arb overview11:05 Risks and negatives to the arb trade.15:58 Bitcoin : Ethereum :: Unproductive : Productive?23:10 Digital Horses and other productive uses for blockchain25:40 Fraud risk in crypto trading32:00 Could the crypto exchanges blow up?50:10 Does cryptos 24/7 nature and extreme volatility minimize blow up risk?53:20 Buying crypto versus buying miners1:04:30 How David evaluates managers in the crypto space
May 20, 202101:09:23
Chris McIntyre thinks Garrett Motion could hit turbo mode Post-Reorg $GTX

Chris McIntyre thinks Garrett Motion could hit turbo mode Post-Reorg $GTX

Chris McIntyre, founder of McIntyre partnerships, discusses his investment thesis for Garrett Motion (GTX). GTX just emerged from bankruptcy after filing in 2020, and Chris thinks the stock is significantly too cheap. He walks through how Garrett's near term projections are significantly understated, how minority shareholders are aligned with the new controlling shareholders, and why the company is likely to "melt" at a much slower rate than the market is pricing in.Chris's GTX website: gtxisacheapstock.comChapters0:00 Intro1:25 Garrett Background8:40 Why Garrett is better than your average auto-supplier11:15 Why wasn't the bankruptcy auction more robust?16:15 Why Garrett filed for bankruptcy25:55 Risk from Garrett's controlling shareholders32:30 Garrett's management team36:00 Garrett's valuation and prefs versus common43:25 Why Chris thinks Garrett can far exceed their bankruptcy projections52:10 Medium to longer term capital allocation at Garrett56:35 Garrett's melting ice cube1:01:30 Closing Thoughts
May 17, 202101:03:23
A roundtable on Angi $ANGI

A roundtable on Angi $ANGI

Dickson Pau, Tom Moore, and Bill Henry, three first years at Columbia Business School, discuss their investment thesis for Angi. The three pitched ANGI in the Pershing Stock Challenge (placing second!), and they go into the due diligence they did putting their investment thesis together, the potential upside they see at ANGI, and all of the different risk factors they thought about.The first Yet Another Value Podcast on ANGI: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTUSpring Graham and Doddsville (ANGI pitch on p. 24): https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%20Doddsville_Issue%2042_v8.pdfTom's Twitter: https://twitter.com/FriarTom15Dickson's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DicksonPauChapters0:00 Intro and backgrounds2:40 Why they chose ANGI for their pitch7:10 Dickson's DD booking ANGI projects15:00 Takeaways from ANGI expert calls22:20 Fixed price: the most exciting piece of ANGI28:30 How the team views ANGI's new CEO36:20 Why hasn't ANGI hit their merger targets?40:40 Is ANGI's near term decline in service requests concerning?45:50 ANGI's struggles with service providers52:20 Competition risk57:00 Laying out the long term case for ANGI1:00:30 Closing thoughts
May 12, 202101:02:02
Javier from Blind Squirrel discusses Netflix $NFLX

Javier from Blind Squirrel discusses Netflix $NFLX

Javier Lovato from the Blind Squirrel comes on the podcast to discuss his post on Netflix, including why Netflix's scale is a massive moat, why the "Netflix doesn't do have quality" debate is wrong, and why Netflix is years ahead of their competition.Blind Squirrel's Netflix Write Up: https://blindsquirrel.substack.com/p/netflix-focus-and-executionChapters0:00 Intro1:25 Why is Netflix a good investment?7:25 Netflix's relationship with creators14:05 Where is Netflix's Game of Thrones21:50 Does Netflix's weak Q1 indicate competition is gaining on them?39:30 Why'd Netflix stop disclosing churn?41:35 Netflix cost of capital and share repurchases48:15 Opportunity cost of Netflix versus Disney, Spotify, or legacy media51:30 Does Netflix need to get into video games?
May 04, 202158:21
Neil Cataldi from Blueprint on Sanara Medtech $SMTI

Neil Cataldi from Blueprint on Sanara Medtech $SMTI

Neil Cataldi from Blueprint Capital discusses his investment thesis for Sanara Medtech (SMTI). Sanara is growing quickly, and Neil thinks continued growth in their product portfolio and hospitals they are approved to sell in will drive continued accelerated growth and long term compounding.Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Sanara overview5:30 How is Sanara increasing their hospital reach?14:25 Discussing management21:10 Related party risks33:20 Breaking down SMTI's growth42:45 Sanara's telehealth ambitions1:01:10 Closing thoughts
May 03, 202101:13:53
Alex Morris from TSOH on Spotify $SPOT

Alex Morris from TSOH on Spotify $SPOT

Alex Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, comes on the podcast to discuss his investment thesis for Spotify (SPOT). Topics include how Spotify can compete with larger competitors like Apple and Amazon, why Spotify is gaining the upper hand in negotiations with record labels, and how Spotify today rhymes with Netflix in the early stages of their streaming pivot.The science of hitting substack: https://thescienceofhitting.substack.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:40 Why is Spotify a good investment?4:40 How the past year built Alex's confidence in SPOT7:55 Spotify as Netflix 2.011:30 Spotify's discover potential versus Netflix home page13:40 Bear case #1: Competing with giants17:35 Bear case #2: Lack of operating leverage and dealing with labels22:10 Touching on the Taylor Swift re-recording24:40 Bear case #3: Valuation32:00 Bear case #4: Opportunity cost versus buying Twitter37:40 Bear case #4 continued: Why not buy a label?41:37 Live and podcast opportunity46:10 Spotify's video opportunity48:20 Content moderation issues52:45 Spotify's concert and live event opportunity55:45 What could Spotify acquire?1:01:40 Alex's closing thoughts
Apr 30, 202101:04:07
Jeremy Raper goes activist on Hunter Douglas $HDG

Jeremy Raper goes activist on Hunter Douglas $HDG

Jeremy Raper, founder of Raper Capital (https://rapercapital.com/), makes his fourth podcast appearance to discuss his foray into activism at Hunter Douglas (HDG.NA). Hunter Douglas's controlling shareholder recently made an offer to take the company private that, to put it bluntly, vastly undervalues the business. Jeremy is pushing back on the deal and the process, and in this interview he explains why he's fighting the current offer and how he thinks the process will play out.Jeremy's letter to the Hunter Douglas Board: https://rapercapital.com/2021/04/21/open-letter-to-the-independent-committee-of-the-board-of-hunter-douglas-n-v/Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 Hunter Douglas Overview3:05 Why is this a good business?7:45 Performance in the pandemic and the blockbuster recovery9:45 Framing the event12:15 Simplifying the event even further16:00 Valuation versus peers22:45 Why is this process worse than a typically conflicted management buyout?30:45 How the timing of the offer was unfair to minorities35:45 A callback to the StoneX / Gain deal39:25 How the process plays out post-acceptance period45:15 Comping this deal to Collector's Universe49:40 Discussing the squeeze out51:30 Praising the poetry of Jeremy's letter53:35 Jeremy and I hop on our horses about companies and regulators ignoring rules and laws55:55 Closing thoughts
Apr 27, 202101:01:37
Ian Bezek on RenRen $RENN

Ian Bezek on RenRen $RENN

Ian Bezek from Ian's Insider Corner discusses the most interesting event thesis I've seen this year: buying RenRen (RENN) into their legal battle over the OPI assets.Ian's original RenRen write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406707-renren-shareholders-claim-huge-sofi-stake-via-little-noticed-legal-fightIan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/irbezekChapters0:00 Intro1:05 RenRen Overview2:25 How Ian discovered RenRen3:50 OPI transaction background6:40 Discussing OPI's valuation8:15 Oasis (the lead plaintiff) and the attempt to reclaim value9:45 Laying out the event path11:45 Who would pay if Oasis / minority shareholders win?16:05 What is the legal precedent here?18:35 Quantifying the upside21:50 If we win, what happens to RENN minority shareholders?23:55 How SoFi getting adding as defendant changes the lawsuit29:05 Does Chamath's history at CLOV impact the timing here?32:00 Could RENN go into bankruptcy to void the lawsuits?34:10 Valuing RENN's other assets36:15 Closing thoughts
Apr 22, 202138:10
Francisco Olivera from Arevilo Capital on Roblox $RBLX

Francisco Olivera from Arevilo Capital on Roblox $RBLX

Francisco Olivera, founder of Arevilo Capital, discusses his newest investment in Roblox (RBLX). He covers his vision for the company, why he thinks it's more of a platform than a single game, and how he thinks the company will evolve over time.Chapters0:00 Intro1:15 Roblox Overview4:25 Comping Roblox to Minecraft and World of Warcraft7:00 Defining the Roblox business model11:35 Roblox valuation versus other game companies18:45 Risk from Roblox's user base26:25 Sustainability of Roblox's user base29:38 Growing Roblox's DAU34:00 Thinking about Roblox's COVID boost37:00 Content moderation risk42:00 Upside from Robux or messaging49:10 Breaking down long term margins52:40 Roblox's management team57:15 Capital allocation going forward59:55 Laying out a reasonable bull case1:05:45 Quick Falcon and Winter Soldier catch up
Apr 20, 202101:07:38
Cove Street Capital on Viemed (VMD)

Cove Street Capital on Viemed (VMD)

Eugene Robin and Andrew Leaf from Cove Street discuss their investment in Viemed. Viemed targets organic growth rates over 30%, yet the company only trades for ~15x free cash flow. Andrew and Eugene lay out their case for why the market is wrong on this one, including why VMD's business model is advantaged versus their competitors and why they aren't scare of a Medicare cut in the near to medium term.Cove Street's first podcast appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU​Chapters0:00​ Intro1:10​ Viemed overview4:30​ Typical use case for VMD's ventilators7:35​ Discussion of COPD market12:35​ How VMD's business model is different than peers24:20​ Why is the market valuing a 30% organic growth business at 15x free cash flow?33:20​ Medicare cut risks and what happened in 201639:10​ VMD's acquisition potential42:00​ VMD's moat with hiring therapists47:00​ Discussing VMD's bad debt expense50:00​ COVID's impact on VMD53:30​ Cove Street's price target59:40​ Parting thoughts
Apr 19, 202101:03:19
Adam Wilk from Greystone Capital on Liberated Syndication $LSYN

Adam Wilk from Greystone Capital on Liberated Syndication $LSYN

Adam Wilk, founder and portfolio manager at Greystone Capital, discusses his investment thesis in Liberated Syndication (LSYN). Key topics include why the company would make an attractive acquisition target, how Libsyn can grow in a competitive environment, and potential upside from a lawsuit that could cancel ~30% of LSYN's shares overnight.Adam's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/AKWilkAdam's LSYN thesis on seeking alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416747-liberated-syndication-update-and-favorable-developments Chapters0:00 Intro1:15 Libsyn Overview11:10 Libsyn Valuation12:55 Libsyn vs. Competitors19:35 Is Libsyn losing market share?23:10 Comping Libsyn to Dropbox29:10 The hunt for a new CEO37:30 Could Spotify dominate podcast hosting like YouTube for video?44:35 Upside from Libsyn's lawsuit to cancel shares
Apr 14, 202155:50
Yaron Naymark from 1 Main Capital on RCI Hospitality $RICK

Yaron Naymark from 1 Main Capital on RCI Hospitality $RICK

Yaron Naymark, founder and Portfolio Manager at 1 Main Capital, discusses his investment in RCI Hospitality (RICK). RICK is a cash flow machine, and Yaron thinks the company is set to compound free cash flow per share at an accelerated rate for years as they continue to roll up the gentlemen's club industry at very low multiples, execute on their Bombshell's growth plans, and repurchase shares when they trade at attractive prices.Yaron's Twitter: https://twitter.com/1MainCapital1maincapital's website: https://www.1maincapital.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 RICK overview10:05 Getting comfortable with the management team18:30 Discussing the roll up opportunity28:15 Valuation arbitrage on acquired clubs32:25 Bombshell's growth prospects38:50 Breaking down the ROIC for new Bombshell's44:15 RICK valuation and SOTP49:25 Does ESG and regulation help or hurt RICK?51:55 Normalized FCF for RICK57:10 Closing thoughts and adjusting for James Harden leaving Houston
Apr 09, 202101:00:14
Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group on the awful $MSGN / $MSGE deal

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group on the awful $MSGN / $MSGE deal

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss the proposed merger between MSGE and MSGN. To put it bluntly, the deal is a disaster with absolutely no strategic rational, and Jon walks through all of the reasons the deal doesn't make sense.Jon's first podcast appearance: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTUBoyar's letter to the MSGN board: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/blog/the-boyars-value-groups-letter-to-james-dolan/If you're interested in hearing more about Jon's take on the different pieces of the MSG empire, email finfo@boyarvaluegroup.com and put Dolan in subject line.Chapters0:00 intro1:15 MSGE / MSGN overview and background8:30 Trying to layout the thesis behind the merger11:25 Diving into the sports betting upside15:15 Pushing back further on the deal bear case20:30 Discussing majority of minority provisions23:55 MSGE's Sphere28:35 Dolan's capital allocation track record32:30 Who else might bid for MSGN
Apr 05, 202141:41
Edwin Dorsey from Bear Cave on Otonomo $SAII

Edwin Dorsey from Bear Cave on Otonomo $SAII

Edwin Dorsey from the Bear Cave (https://thebearcave.substack.com/​) returns to discuss a high conviction long idea, Otonomo. Otonomo is a "leading platform and marketplace for vehicle data" and is going public through a SPAC merger with SAII (will trade under ONTO post-deal). Edwin thinks the opportunity for the company is enormous, and if they successfully execute they could be a multi-bagger.Chapters0:00​ Intro4:00​ Otonomo overview6:15​ How can Otonomo make money selling car data?11:30​ How does OEM partnerships work?14:00​ Why will automotive data be a winner take all market?25:25​ How Otonomo could undercut Root and Metromile29:00​ Discussing the Otonomo management team33:50​ The SAII PIPE group: good or bad?35:50​ Edwin's take on the SAII SPAC group38:00​ How big is Otonomo's TAM?40:25​ How the current SPAC market could create opportunity43:00​ Warrants are risky; discussing SAII risk/reward49:30​ What pushback has Edwin gotten on the idea?
Mar 31, 202152:37
Jeff Moore discusses Thryv $THRY

Jeff Moore discusses Thryv $THRY

Micro-cap investor Jeff Moore (who also writes http://ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/​) discusses his bull case for Thryv (THRY). Thryv is an interesting company: their core value comes from their legacy Yellow Pages business, and they're using the cash flows and relationships from that melting ice cube to start up a SMB SaaS service. Jeff argues there's huge upside as the company taps their customer base, acquires smaller competitors, and the market starts to recognize the value of their SaaS business.Chapters0:00​ Intro1:20​ Thryv Overview6:15​ Thryv Software discussion12:25​ Why is a SaaS business attached to a Yellow Page company?14:30​ Why is churn so high?20:05​ Who are Thryv's competitors22:00​ Don't all yellow page companies go bankrupt?28:30​ Walking through Thryv's SOTP40:25​ Discussing Thryv's management team45:45​ What to make of the CEO buying stock while largest shareholders sell down?SHOW LESS
Mar 29, 202153:35
Cove Street Capital on Viasat $VSAT

Cove Street Capital on Viasat $VSAT

Eugene Robin and Ben Claremon from Cove Street Capital discuss the battleground stock Viasat (VSAT). They discuss the biggest misperception among bears, why they think VSAT's government business is a hidden gem, and how the risk from Elon Musk's SpaceX (and other burgeoning competitors) is overblown.Some relevant links:Cove Street's March 2020 Viasat deck: http://covestreetcapital.com/eugene-robin-discusses-viasat-on-the-valuewalk-podcast/Kerrisdale's short report: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/viasat-inc-vsat/Cove Street's Kerrisdale rebuttal: http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Satellite-Potshots-ViaSat.pdf Chapters0:00 Intro2:50 Viasat overview8:15 Residential Broadband: the biggest VSAT misperception15:45 Is Cove Street too close to VSAT?25:00 Could a big increase in capacity create issues?31:00 VSAT's all-in cost advantage and the SpaceX risk36:45 VSAT's hidden jewel: the Government business43:50 "Stock price bro" and capital allocation bear case52:50 Why GEO can compete with LEO1:06:00 Ben's quick run through of lingering points1:17:00 Quantifying a reasonable bull case
Mar 23, 202101:25:20
Mostly Borrowed Ideas on Autodesk ( $ADSK)

Mostly Borrowed Ideas on Autodesk ( $ADSK)

Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas ( https://mbi-deepdives.com/ ​) returns to the podcast to discuss his latest research pick, Autodesk (ADSK). The company successfully did the transition from a licensed to subscription business model, and with that transition behind them, Abdullah discusses why the future is brighter than ever and why Autodesk will benefit from an infrastructure boom.Abdullah / MBI's first appearance on ETSY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muhNdYcNHgk Chapters0:00 Intro2:00 Being a generalist versus expert7:15 Autodesk overview17:30 Breaking down Autodesk's different segments26:10 Discussing some more Autodesk bear points35:50 Can Autodesk use their distribution to launch new products?40:45 Analyzing ADSK's CEO and their LT targets53:35 Noncompliant user opportunity1:02:20 Valuation discussion
Mar 22, 202101:09:18
Will Barnes from In Practise on Naked Wines

Will Barnes from In Practise on Naked Wines

Will Barnes, co-founder of inpractise.com, discusses the investment case for Naked Wines. The company's been a huge COVID beneficiary, but despite a nice run Will thinks the market is underestimating the long term potential of Naked Wines and how advantaged the business is against the rest of the wine industry.Chapters0:00 Intro7:00 Naked Wines Overview12:25 How Naked Wines Angel model works15:15 Why isn't this Blue Apron 2.0?22:00 Naked's scale and business model gives them a cost advantage28:00 Would winemakers leave as they got bigger?32:30 Can Naked Wines grow beyond the angel wine model?38:45 Naked Wines' data gives them a moat45:35 Naked Wines' Postcard anecdote49:35 Valuation and how sustainable is the COVID boost52:30 Reasonable 2025 bull case57:45 Potential "level up" opportunities
Mar 18, 202101:04:45
Jacob Rubin from Philosophy Capital on $ESGC

Jacob Rubin from Philosophy Capital on $ESGC

Jacob Rubin, managing member and CIO at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast to talk about his long thesis on Eros STX (ESGC), how he thinks the stock could respond to a global refi, and the long term upside as they successful integrate their assets.Disclosure: ESGC is a small cap and has a going concern risk; please do your own work and remember nothing on here is investing adviceChapters0:00 Intro4:00 Eros overview6:00 Pattern recognition from Loral (LORL)10:15 LORL's upside optionality / Canadian C-Band16:00 ESGC's solvable credit problem19:30 Eros's history with short reports22:40 Taking comfort in Liberty and Eros's CFO DD29:30 Pushing back on asset value36:00 Quantifying the post-refi upside52:40 Pushing back on the STX upside1:00:30 Pushing back the Eros Now Upside1:11:40 Quantifying the upsidePhilosophy Capital's Website: http://philosophycap.com/
Mar 02, 202101:15:23
Joe Boskovich on WildBrain $WLDBF

Joe Boskovich on WildBrain $WLDBF

Joe Boskovich, a partner at Old West Investment Management, dives deep into his investment thesis on WildBrian (WLDBF), including why he thinks Apple could drive the Peanuts brand to the next level and how WildBrain Spark could be a huge growth story.Joe's Twitter: https://twitter.com/boskovic64Old West Investment website: https://www.oldwestim.com/pressChapters0:00 Intro2:10 Quick discussion of IDT and their spins5:55 WildBrain investment thesis overview21:30 Devil's Advocate: Haven't these franchises been passed around a lot?35:00 Could the Apple partnership get the Peanuts brand growing again?46:35 WildBrain Spark: just another YouTube channel, or real growth asset?1:00:45 How does this compare to LGF's valuation?1:10:55 Quantifying WildBrain's upside ~3 years out1:19:30 Bonus point: could WildBrain go D2C?
Feb 18, 202101:22:05
Shehryar Khursheed from Return on Capital on $RH's bull case

Shehryar Khursheed from Return on Capital on $RH's bull case

Shehryar Khursheed, the founder of Return on Capital, discusses the battleground stock RH (FKA Restoration Hardware), what Berkshire Hathaway saw in the company, what short sellers missed on the company, and his vision for the company over the next few years.Return on Capital website: https://returnoncap.com/Return on Capital Twitter: https://twitter.com/CapitalTalk2Note that we had brief technical issues around the 22:40 mark of the video; we've done our best to edit those out but there is still a brief gap / jump. For those watching on YouTube, my video freezes for ~5 mins at the 17 min mark.Chapters0:00 Intro2:35 RH Overview6:45 What is RH's moat and how do they build their brand?10:15 How building restaurants reinforces RH's brand14:55 Endgame for RH's brand18:00 Can RH's CEO hit his RSU target of $800/share?19:45 Is RH's 60 gallery target reasonable?24:40 What do margins look like in the long run?27:15 RH's international opportunity31:05 Exploring the bear case further38:55 What's the RH endgame?42:20 RH's membership program45:35 Last hits on RH
Feb 02, 202148:49
Al Grujic from All of Us Financial on Robinhood's issues and $GME squeeze

Al Grujic from All of Us Financial on Robinhood's issues and $GME squeeze

Al Grujic, founder and CEO of All of Us Financial (https://www.allofusfinancial.com/), comes on to discuss the Stonk market. Topics include Robinhood stopping trading last week, gamma squeezes, and how a stock can have over 100% short interest.Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 Al's background4:20 Why All of Us restricted trading last week9:40 Why couldn't cash accounts buy meme stocks last week?11:45 How should Robinhood have handled their messaging?14:45 How can Gamestop (or any stock) have over 100% short interest?19:25 How up to date is short interest reporting?22:00 Gamma squeezes and options23:55 Market manipulation27:45 Risks of social media pumps going forward32:15 The "boring" stuff of revamping the clearing system
Feb 01, 202135:40
Mario Cibelli on the $WWE bull case

Mario Cibelli on the $WWE bull case

Mario Cibelli, the founder of Marathon Partners and breakout star of the book Netflixed (https://amzn.to/34cim9F​), makes his second podcast appearance to discuss the bull case for WWE.Mario's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1296130870949097472?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro2:10 WWE Overview4:30 Sale of WWE network9:10 Laying out the upside for WWE16:20 What if the next domestic contract is a down round?20:40 Ratings since the move to fox21:40 How the pandemic will improve the product going forward26:00 Vince McMahon risk29:40 What if the WWE can't find the next Rock?32:35 The time I went to WrestleMania34:20 WWE's other content plays and expansion plans43:35 How WWE's rights ownership is an advantage46:40 Our favorite SuperStars
Jan 29, 202149:43
Elliot Turner on Twitter $TWTR

Elliot Turner on Twitter $TWTR

Elliot Turner of RGA (http://rgaia.com) makes a repeat appearance to provide a quick update on Dropbox (DBX), discuss how a due diligence project resulted in him hitting the state limit for wine delivery, and then dive deep into his investment in Twitter (TWTR).Elliot's first YAVP appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJddlF3__Nw&t=3sElliot's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliotTurnChapters:0:00 Intro1:15 The time Elliot hit the state limit for alcohol shipments3:00 Dropbox (DBX) update6:50 Has Dropbox's pandemic performance disappointed?10:15 Twitter (TWTR) overview10:40 Trump ban: good or bad for Twitter?14:10 Trump ban devil's advocate: engagement down18:35 Why Elliot flipped from Twitter bear to bull21:15 Twitter's failed sports rights attempts25:15 Twitter's substack opportunity30:55 Mismanagement bear case35:30 How Twitter captures some of their consumer surplus36:50 Valuation40:30 Should Twitter charge for verification?44:00 What does Twitter look like in a few years?46:55 How Twitter gets to 500m DAUs55:20 What to expect from Twitter's analyst day59:50 Financial metrics to expect from Twitter's analyst day
Jan 22, 202101:07:14
Jeremy Raper on Haier Smart Home

Jeremy Raper on Haier Smart Home

Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We provide an update on his idea from our last podcast (Brag), discuss a potential $300m+ investment he's looking to source, and then dive deep into his later idea, Haier Smart Home German Shares (690D).Note that BRAG and Haier are both international small cap stocks; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.LinksJeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeosJeremy's second YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/PuP_c10B_NIChapters0:00 Intro4:20 Jeremy's $400 million special situation8:20 Update on BRAG13:20 Jeremy's new big position, Haier Smart Home German D-shares (690D)20:20 Discussion of fungibility of Haier's different shares25:00 What's the right spread?30:30 Devil's advocate: why can't the Hong Kong shares keep running?38:20 Devil's advocate: comparison to SPAC warrant arb41:05 Devil's advocate: geo-political risk46:00 Discussion of position structuring (naked long or dirty arb)
Jan 19, 202151:05
Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method

Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method

Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method (https://amzn.to/3gwJJjb) comes on to discuss his new book and some of the valuation and research tricks and tips that didn't quite make it into his book.Chapters0:00 Intro3:30 Steve's one tip for improving as a research analyst10:10 Improving how you read a 10-K17:20 clever research tactics and tips21:00 Emerging accounting issues Steve's looking at25:45 Electric car company discussion34:20 Special situations discussion
Dec 07, 202047:21
Jeremy Raper on Bragg Gaming (BRAG.V)

Jeremy Raper on Bragg Gaming (BRAG.V)

Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We discuss his recent views on the market, a quick update on his StoneX (SNEX) thesis, and his recent thesis on Canadian microcap Bragg Gaming (BRAG). Note that BRAG is a Canadian Microcap; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.LinksJeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeosJeremy's article on BRAG: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391937-bragg-gaming-undiscovered-igaming-saas-gem-be-next-gan-plcChapters0:00 intro1:30 Catch up and the current environment5:55 How Jeremy is shorting in this environment15:15 Sectors Jeremy is seeing opportunity on the long side23:30 Update on StoneX (SNEX) thesis29:50 Brag Overview33:10 Similarities between Brag and GAN38:55 Red flag #1: Management turnover45:40 How a recent deal suggests equity upside49:40 Why Brag could be a better business than Gan56:20 Brag's 2021 outlook and German regulatory risk1:11:00 Management's recent commentary on relisting
Dec 01, 202001:15:39
Zack Silver on Liberty Media Investor Day and CuriosityStream (CURI)

Zack Silver on Liberty Media Investor Day and CuriosityStream (CURI)

Zack Silver, an analyst at B. Riley, recaps what happened at Liberty Media's Investor Day, including Liberty's bullishness for tech companies, Liberty's plan to launch a SPAC, and how Liberty has handled the pandemic overall. Then, we discuss his newest coverage, CuriosityStream (CURI), a new streaming service that recently went public through a SPAC.Chapters0:00 Intro and Background3:30 What separates the best buy-siders Zack interacts with7:00 Shentel (SHEN): the most interesting stock in Zack's universe9:20 WideOpenWest (WOW): the most undervalued name in his coverage11:30 Takeaways from Liberty Investor Day14:20 Liberty SPAC discussion21:40 Does Liberty have tech platform envy?23:10 How did Liberty respond to the pandemic? Were they aggressive enough?25:50 Zack's bull case for SiriusXM (SIRI)28:00 Brief technical issues causes Andrew to slightly panic28:45 Technical issues end, panic stops, SIRI bull case resumes36:59 CuriosityStream (CURI) background and overview40:34 Why would someone pay for CURI when they have Netflix?44:30 Is CURI better as an acquisition target than standalone?51:41 Can CURI succeed if Discovery gets more serious about D2C?56:50 Is Zack more worried about Discovery or Netflix competing with CURI?1:02:10 If CURI works, what do they look like three to five years from now?
Nov 24, 202001:05:43
Tim Bergin from On Beyond Investing on Global Value Investing and the CIT merger

Tim Bergin from On Beyond Investing on Global Value Investing and the CIT merger

Tim Bergin is a value investor and the founder of On Beyond Investing (https://onbeyondinvesting.com/). In this episode, he discusses his background, why he sees value in the banking space and specifically in the First Citizen (FCNCA) / CIT merger, and how consolidation could drive upside in the Irish banking marketTim's Twitter: https://twitter.com/onbeyondinvestOn Beyond Investing: https://onbeyondinvesting.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:35 Tim's Background (and cold water swimming)5:35 Tim's evolution from credit analyst to value investing8:50 Seeing value in financials and mining / commodity stocks17:40 How to spot uninvest-able bad banks27:55 Tim's Favorite Uranium Stocks30:05 First Citizen's (FCNCA) / CIT merger overview37:00 Synergies from the merger and why it's so accrettive44:00 Could a large bank spin off a high multiple fintech company?47:30 Overview of the Irish banking market and why consolidation could benefit investors
Nov 20, 202001:01:19
Chris Colvin from Breach Inlet Capital on Apollo's attempt to steal Great Canadian Gaming