Rethinking with Dror Poleg

A.I. might "liberate" most humans to do jobs that are less meaningful and entail limited agency. But it might be more fun than it sounds. Written by Dror Poleg. Published on September 18, 2023, here.

Thoughts on what makes places attractive, on urbanism's capacity to foster peace and prosperity, and on the most complicated "real estate" conflict in the world — following my first visit to Saudi Arabia. Written by Dror Poleg. Originally published on September 14, 2023 here.

NVIDIA: The Distributed Rocketship. The world's most innovative hardware is developed "from home." Originally published on September 1, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

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I asked ChatGPT to go into my head and figure out what happens next. Published on August 20, 2023, here.

The next productivity boom will not come from robots doing more; it will come from humans doing less. Written by Dror Poleg. Originally published on August 17, 2023, here.

🚀 The upcoming cohort of Practical AI begins next week! Sign up here to master the latest tools for financial analysis, marketing, and business automation. I course is 100% online and 100% live, but sessions and tutorials are also recorded for you to revisit the material at your own pace. Come learn!

Let AI steal your ideas. It might be the only way to protect them. Written by Dror Poleg. Published on August 15, 2023, ⁠here⁠.

Thank you for listening. To harness AI for your own work, check out my upcoming ⁠Practical AI course⁠. We’ll clarify all the jargon and hype and get hands-on experience with tools and workflows for marketing, financial analysis, and general business automation. Learn more ⁠here⁠.

A recent announcement from Zoom gives hope to the pro-office crowd. But reading beyond the headlines shows we're never going back to the old normal. Originally published on August 7, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

Check out the upcoming Practical AI course to master the latest tools for marketing, financial analysis, and general business automation.

How will recent innovations impact jobs and corporations? Meta's earning call offers some hints. Published on August 1, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg. Learn more about Dror's Practical AI course here.

As work becomes less dependent on location, life becomes more dependent on location. Written by Dror Poleg. Published on July 28, 2023, here.

Lessons from AI and urban planning on why it pays to keep things free — and how exclusivity destroys value. Originally published on July 19, 2023, here. Written and read by Dror Poleg.

This week’s podcast is an excerpt from my upcoming book, After Office. My premium newsletter subscribers receive excerpts like this every week. To sign up, visit DrorPoleg.com. I hope you enjoy this excerpt. 

In other news, the upcoming cohort of my practical AI course begins next month. If you’re interested in mastering the latest AI tools and workflows for marketing, financial analysis, and general business automation, check out the course on HypeFreeAI.com. 

Should you go to the office or stay home? Now, you can do both. Maybe. Published on June 7, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

You don't have to worry about AI. Keep doing what you're doing. Published on May 28, 2028 here.

Learn more about Dror's Hype-Free AI course at www.HypeFreeAI.com.

In a world of abundant content, businesses that control physical touchpoints have a unique advantage. But they also carry unique risks. Published on May 22, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

Join Dror later this month for a deeper dive into AI's impact on industries and careers. Learn more at HypeFreeAI.com.

Whatever job you're in, technology can multiply your productivity, reach, and rewards. Here's a simple formula to help you get started. Published on May 19, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg. 

Only 11 days left to register for Dror's Hype-Free AI course. We have a great group of people from around the world. Join us to learn what AI can do for you and explore its impact on your industry. Learn more here.

Do we need more programmers, or are many of them going to be broke in a few years? The answer to both questions is yes. Published on March 27, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

When everyone can sound smart, elite conversations will become less intelligible to regular people. Published on May 16, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

If you're interested in AI's impact on your industry and career, check out Dror's upcoming Hype-FREE AI course. We'll have a fun group of people from across the world, 100% online.

In today's episode, we dive into the challenges and confusion that the corporate world faces in the era of remote work and AI. Explore the complexities of productivity, the need for adaptability, and how company leaders can embrace uncertainty by encouraging experimentation and diverse workstyles. Join us as we discuss the future of work and the role of bosses in navigating this non-linear economy. Written by Dror Poleg. Originally published on May 9, here.

Oh, and speaking of the future of work — what do you know about AI? What can it do for you? Later this month, Dror will be teaching a Hype-Free AI Course— providing a practical introduction to the tools and trends reshaping the world of work. Come see what it means for your business or career. Click here to learn more and sign up.

Today's crazy is tomorrow's new normal. Originally published on April 14, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg. Check out HypeFreeAI.com to learn more about Dror's upcoming course.

Originally published on April 17, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg. Check the original article for additional charts and visuals. 

Talent, Structure, Culture. Published on May 4, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter at DrorPoleg.com for weekly insights on the future of work and cities.

This article delves into the relationship between talent scarcity and corporate culture, structure, and the future of work. Based on Nadia Asparouhova's theory, companies can be classified into three types: Industrial, Modern, and Creative, depending on the distribution of talent within them. Industrial companies have a balanced talent distribution and rely on strict processes, while Modern companies have a Pareto distribution, seeking to hire as many high-ability individuals as possible. Creative companies have a bimodal distribution and depend on "linchpins," uniquely gifted individuals who drive the company's success.

The type of talent a company relies on determines its management style, office culture, and even urban planning. Software and creative industries attract linchpins due to their unlimited problem-solving possibilities and flexibility. The article concludes that talent scarcity and distribution play a significant role in shaping corporate culture, structure, and the future of work.

As technology tilts power towards capital, individuals must adapt by investing in diverse assets and embracing innovative approaches to secure their future. Written by Dror Poleg. Originally published on April 28, 2023, here.

Remote work enables AI to take on more jobs. Stronger AI enables more humans to work remotely. Originally published on May 2, 2023, here. Written by Dror Poleg.

As mentioned: Later this month, I will be teaching a Hype-Free AI Course — providing a practical introduction to the tools and trends that are reshaping the world of work. Join us! Click here to learn more and sign up.

I had a live and lively conversation with Lauren Razavi, the author of Global Natives, a just-published book about how digital nomads will shape the future of work, travel, innovation, and migration.Lauren has lived as a digital nomad in over 50 countries, working on digital tools and a legal framework to facilitate remote collaboration and the mobility rights of people everywhere. Her work has been featured in the BBC, Time Magazine, NPR, Le Monde, and beyond.

The video of the recording is available here.

Banks tried to kill remote work. Now, remote work is trying to kill banks. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Originally published on March 20, here.

Distributed work is a natural evolution of the office itself. To remain attractive, physical offices should stop thinking about productivity. Originally published on March 10, 2023, here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. 

Earlier this week, I hosted Dr. Judy Stephenson for a chat about the history of working from home and mixed-use cities. The transcript and more information is available here. 

Judy Stephenson is an Associate Professor at University College London, specializing in the history of labor markets and the built environment. In addition, Judy is a research associate at both the Oxford Centre for Economic and Social History and The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, and a Director at the Long Run Institute. Her insights have been featured by The Economist, Financial Times, and beyond.

Judy’s upcoming book, Wages before Machines, explores salaries and bargaining in the pre-industrial world. Follow her on Twitter @JudyZara.

Technology creates more work. More work creates technology. But the way it does so is increasingly unclear. Originally published on March 3, 2023 here. 

A few housekeeping notes: 

📚 Last week, I published additional pages from my upcoming book about the future of cities, companies, and careers. Premium subscribers can read them here. Additional pages will be published early next week.

🗄️ The History of Working from Home: Later this week, I'm hosting a live chat with Dr. Judy Stephenson about the history of home-offices and the evolution of cities. Sign up for free here.

🗺️ Urban Planning, Work, and Transportation: Later this month, I'm hosting a live chat with Alain Bertaud about the interaction between technology, labor markets, and urban form. Sign up for free here.

For the full transcript and more insights on the future of work, cities, and buildings — subscribe to Dror's newsletter. Follow Tracy @LohPlaces and Dror @DrorPoleg. 

The original article, It's Time for a National Success Fund, was published on January 6, 2023. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter here, and learn more about Zach here. Follow Dror on Twitter @drorpoleg. 

I am serializing it: Every week, I will share a new chapter with my premium subscribers. Such subscribers will get advance access to the book's insights — and their feedback will help shape the final draft.

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📔 A copy of the final book. Physical or digital - your pick.

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There are two kinds of bosses: Those who embrace flexibility, and those who are about to lose their job. Originally published on February 3, 2023, here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter for weekly insights on the future of work, cities, and buildings. 

30% of office buildings can be converted into housing.

12 months ago, most cities and landlords didn't want to hear about this possibility. But over the past 6 months, there has been an explosion of interest.

Office conversions can create hundreds of thousands of new apartments in the heart of cities like New York, San Francisco, London, and Toronto.

Adding new housing stock can make cities more affordable, more equitable, safer — and more fun. Instead of relying on commuters that show up a couple of times a week, cities can enable more people to live near work and within walking distance of schools, shops, parks, theatres, and other urban amenities.

Beyond the benefits for people, it's also good for the planet! Buildings make up a huge proportion of overall carbon emissions. 50% of these emissions are generated during construction. Reusing and repurposing buildings helps drive down emissions dramatically.

And it doesn't end there. By enabling more people to live in cities, we reduce car emissions and energy usage for heating, cooling, and ventilation.

In early 2020 — *before* the pandemic — Steven Paynter from Gensler started developing an "algorithm" to assess which office buildings can become apartment buildings. Since then, Steven and his team evaluated more than 500 buildings across North America — 50 of which are now being converted.

I chatted with Steven about the challenges and opportunities, and what politicians, investors, and employers can do to make cities more pleasant, affordable, and attractive.

Follow @DrorPoleg on Twitter and subscribe to Dror's newsletter here.

The disruption of creative work has been going on for a long time. And yet, we always assume it won't affect us. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Originally published on December 29, 2022 here. 

🙏🏻 To welcome 2023, I am launching a Premium Subscription for my newsletter. Premium subscribers will receive bonus weekly posts, digests with recommended articles and books, access to comments, and join exclusive Ask-Me-Anything webinars.

Your support enables me to dive deeper into the technologies, strategies, and ideas that will define the coming decades. If you find it valuable, consider a premium subscription. It costs like two cups of coffee, but it lasts longer. Get yours here. 🙏🏻

I wrote more about my writing agenda for 2023 and my favorite quotes and book of 2022 here.

My quote of the year, book of the year, and writing plans for 2023. Published here on December 27, 2023.

Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter and follow him on Twitter.

The first-order effect of remote work is emptier offices. The second-order effect is leaner companies. The third-order effect is more inequality and opportunity. Published on December 19, 2022 here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter and follow him on Twitter.

The physical and cultural constraints that gave rise to a normal income distribution are losing their power. The difference between highway and airline networks explains why. Originally published on December 14, 2022 here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter and follow him on Twitter.

A networked, creative economy cannot produce a normal distribution of income. Our focus should shift to providing a minimum-viable lifestyle to a growing long-tail class. Cities have a critical role to play in that process. Originally published on December 13, 2022 here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter and follow him on Twitter.

As they grow, networks become more efficient and less egalitarian. The process explains a lot about where we are — and where we're headed. Originally published on December 12, 2022 here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter and follow him on Twitter. 

Can an oversupply of offices create an oversupply of housing? (Generally, no. Occasionally, yes.) Published on December 6, 2022 here. 

Later today, I'm speaking at a free webinar about the future of housing. I'll share some key trends and analysis — and answer any questions you may have. Click here to register. It's free.

Can't make it to the live session? Register, and we'll email you the recording.

You can change a giant market even if you don't control it.  WeWork changed the way most major offices are leased, operated, and designed. Airbnb will do the same to housing. Published on December 5, 2022 here. 

On Tuesday, December 6, I'm speaking at a free webinar about the future of housing. I'll share some key trends and analysis — and answer any questions you may have. Click here to register. It's free.

Can't make it to the live session? Register, and we'll email you the recording.

Airbnb is a housing company. Always has been. Landlords, property managers, and brokers should start paying attention. Published on November 30, 2022 here. 

Next week, I'm presenting my latest thoughts on the future of housing, followed by a Q&A moderated by AppFolio's Sean Forster. Click here to register. It's free.

Investors will put up with as much as they can for as long as they can. Originally published on November 23, 2023, here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Subscribe at DrorPoleg.com 

Originally published in August 4, 2022, here. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter on DrorPoleg.com 

You can't decentralize the web. At best, you can kill old winners and pick new ones. Here's how. Originally published in November 2021 here. Subscribe to Dror's newsletter on DrorPoleg.com. 

The web is broken. A handful of companies dominates it: Google (and Baidu) tracks all our queries, Facebook (and Tencent) monitors our social interactions, Twitter (and Weibo) decides what we're allowed to share, Amazon (and Alibaba) dominates retail, etc. Above these corporate giants, governments from Beijing to D.C. encroach on the free flow of information in the name of "social harmony" or "public health."

Crypto and blockchain-based applications aim to steer the web toward its original vision: an open network, based on public-domain protocols, controlled by no one. It promises to enable "decentralized" alternatives to the tech and government giants we all know and love.

This effort can be divided into two main fronts: Decentralized Utility and Decentralized Ownership.

Decentralized Utility aims to provide online services without relying on a centralized system. For example, instead of storing your files on server farms owned by Amazon (AWS) or Microsoft (Azure), you can store them on Arweave, Storj, Filecoin. The latter will keep your files encrypted on a network of computers governed by a protocol that cannot be stopped or altered by any individual entity.

Decentralized Ownership aims to share the ownership and governance of digital platforms with their users and stakeholders. Mirror, for example, enables writers to publish their content online, monetize it, as well as own a piece of the publishing platform itself and vote on how it is operated. Helium and Livepeer operate networks of wireless hotspots and video streaming infrastructure. These networks are maintained and secured by users who own specific tokens that compensate them for their services and enable them to participate in governance.

These crypto projects are still small and experimental. They point towards an alternative way of building, maintaining, and marketing the type of services that giant, centralized corporations currently provide.

But decentralizing one class of internet companies does not guarantee that a new class of centralized giants will not emerge in their stead. In fact, decentralizing power from one pair of hands is almost guaranteed to concentrate that power in another pair of hands.

A powerful theory and the history of the internet itself explain why. Let's start with the theory.

A letter from FTX's most conservative investor explains why they'll do it again. Written and read by Dror Poleg. Originally published here. Read more and subscribe to Dror's newsletter on DrorPoleg.com. 

In a complex world, success only makes sense after it happens. Originally published on November 17, 2022 here. This is a follow-up piece to Reasonable FOMO. It looks at FTX's collapse in contrast to the ultimate success of Airbnb, Uber, and Coinbase and explains why investors can't afford to miss a chance at a big success. 

Subscribe to Dror's newsletter here: https://www.drorpoleg.com/

Originally published on November 15, 2022 here. Written and read by Dror Poleg. 

Elon Musk is banning remote work. In a letter to employees, Twitter's new owner decreed that "employees must be in the office for a minimum of 40 hours per week."

As Profesor Nick Bloom rightfully pointed out, under normal conditions, Musk's new policy would likely have a negative impact on morale, productivity, and recruitment.

But these aren't normal times.

Twitter is at war. It is undergoing a rapid pivot on multiple fronts — changing its product, business model, and ownership structure. The company is trying to shed employees, reset its corporate culture, and eliminate anyone who isn't on board with the new direction.

And perhaps most importantly: Twitter has "pent-up productivity." The company has been incredibly unproductive over the past few years — judging by the pace of product improvements and overall revenue per employee.

Twitter might fail anyway, but if it is to succeed — a jolt to the system could be just what the doctor ordered. And even if it isn't, unlocking the company's pent-up productivity (regardless of where people work) might offset the negative cost of forbidding remote work.

At least for a while.

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter. Subscribe to this podcast to receive all future pieces directly to your phone. And subscribe on DrorPoleg.com for my newsletter.