ENGIE EnergyScan
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ENGIE EnergyScanMay 17, 2023
Macro & Oil Report: Rising oil prices fuel fears of "higher for longer"
After a series of central bank meetings, Olivier Gasnier explains the difference between the ECB's dovish hike and the Fed's hawkish pause. The surge in oil prices is also exacerbating fears that interest rates will have to go higher and stay there longer.
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Gas & Power Report: Towards an easing of energy supply risks in Europe?
In this week Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the impact of the latest news regarding the Norwegian gas maintenance program and the strikes at Australian LNG plants on European energy markets.
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Macro & Oil Report: ECB kicks off central bank meetings
This is a key week ahead with US inflation and the ECB meeting. Olivier Gasnier tells us that contrary to market expectations, if the ECB does pause, it is likely for good, given the deterioration in economic indicators.
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Gas & Power Report: "LNG strikes in Australia & fading risk premium for French power: the European energy summer hits"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast Julien Hoarau discusses about the two main stories that emerged from European energy markets over the past few weeks: concerns over potential strikes at Australian LNG export plants and the drop in French power prices for delivery next winter.
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Macro & Oil Report: An end to rate hikes? The jury is still out after Jackson Hole
Central banks are now faced with a trade-off between the desire to reduce core inflation and avoid plunging the economy into recession. OG tells us that the end of rate hikes is approaching, but the bias of monetary policy remains bullish, especially as oil price products are rising.
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Macro & Oil Report: The Bank of Japan steals the show from the Fed and the ECB
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us what to take away from the meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan before the Bank of England this week. He also talks about the continuing rise in oil prices.
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Macro & Oil Report: Last rate hikes for the Fed and ECB
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us markets have revised down their expectations of rate hikes in Europe, but are still refusing to consider an upside risk for the Fed as a crucial week opens with meetings of the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ.
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices looking for direction amid scorching weather in the US and southern Europe
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the impact of the heatwave on energy demand in southern Europe and the recent moves in gas and power prices following the widely-awaited restart of the Nyhamna gas platform in Norway
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Macro & Oil Report: US disinflation boosts risk appetite
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG explains how and why the fall in the US inflation rate in June has reinforced the markets' belief that next week's Fed rate hike will be the last.
Gas & Power Report: "Weak demand and an improving supply picture weigh on energy prices"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the drop in energy prices in Europe over the past trading sessions and the potential for further downside on the back of poor economic figures in the industrial sector and improving supply fundamentals
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Gas & Power Report: "Diverging paths for energy prices in Europe"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the various price moves observed across European energy markets since the beginning of July with another episode of very negative spot power prices, diverging trends between prompt and forward prices at gas hubs, and a tightening of the FR-DE base power spread.
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Macro & Oil Report: Back to the old "have your cake and eat it" approach
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us that market concerns about the need for further monetary tightening quickly dissipated: the market is back to a configuration where growth is resilient without pushing central bank rates too high. We will also see that oil prices are rising in anticipation of Saudi Arabia's production cut in July and now in August, as they just announced.
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Gas & Power Report: "Nervousness prevails at European energy markets"
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the high volatility level of European energy prices following the short squeeze that took place in the first half of June.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The optimism machine is running out of steam"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us that the prospect of a soft landing for the Western economies, steered by central banks that would manage to keep inflation under control without excessive damage to growth, is receding. What if the Fed's pause was just misleading, masking a less pleasant reality? Resilient core inflation could force central banks to tighten policy excessively, and the end result could be a recession, as usual.
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Gas & Power Report: "Supply concerns trigger a short squeeze at European gas hubs"
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the drivers behind the sharp increase in European gas prices since the beginning of June and the return of strong intraday volatility in wholesale energy markets.
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Macro & Oil Report: "A pause from the Fed, but what next?"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG talks to us about the crucial week ahead on the financial markets. US inflation data will precede the Fed and ECB meetings. The markets are expecting the Fed to take a break, but above all, they are looking for more visibility on what lies ahead. On the oil front, prices are continuing to fall despite the announced reduction in Saudi Arabian production.
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Gas & Power Report: "Short-lived spike or trend reversal in European energy prices?"
In this 50th episode of EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the sharp rebound in wholesale gas and power prices amid a downward adjustment in LNG supply to Europe. On the regulatory side, the European Commission announced that emergency measures taken to manage the energy crisis that have been agreed at the end of last year will not be extended.
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Macro & Oil Report: Hopes of disinflation in the face of tensions on the labour market and OPEC policy
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier wonders whether it's reasonable to expect the Fed to stop raising rates when the labor market remains so tight. He also looks back at Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production again to support oil prices.
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Gas & Power Report: The downward trend in European gas prices shows no sign of abating
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the further drop in wholesale gas prices amid a lack of demand response and poor economic figures in Europe. French future power prices reduced their premium to neighboring markets while coal and EUA prices also fell in line with weak fundamentals.
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Macro & Oil Report: " Agreement on US debt but Fed rate hike may not be over "
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier OG tells us that one threat is replacing another in the US: a vote to raise the US debt ceiling is expected soon, but the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise rates is increasing, even if there is a pause in June.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The raising of the US debt ceiling under close scrutiny"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the need to raise the US debt ceiling. With a few days to go before the deadline, an agreement has still not been reached but the markets remain serene. The prospect of a pause in Fed rates, while the US economy remains resilient, is helping to maintain this optimism. Oil prices have rebounded after four weeks of decline in a row.
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices remain under bearish pressure in Europe
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the reduction of the contango on the EU gas curve and the further drop in spot gas and power prices amid weak energy demand and comfortable gas stock levels in Europe.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The rebound in the dollar exacerbates the fall in the oil price"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains why the dollar has just rebounded to its highest level in two months as the US economy sends worrying signals and the Fed may have completed its rate hike. The dollar is a safe haven. Its rise reinforces the downward pressure on the price of oil, which has just recorded its 4th consecutive week of decline. Want to learn more? Start your EnergyScan free trial here: https://bit.ly/3UBfVEH
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Gas & Power Report: Gas prices continue to ease in Europe
In this weekly podcast for Gas & Power, we discuss about the continuation of the bearish trend in European gas prices as well as the volatility in power prices following the confirmation of EDF’s nuclear production target for 2023.
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Macro & Oil Report "Fed & ECB: similar decisions, different outlook"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier looks back at the rate hikes announced by the Fed and ECB last week. Behind the identical decisions (25bp rate hikes), we can see a rather different discourse reflecting uncertainty about the impact of monetary policies on growth and inflation. The markets are a bit confused, as are oil prices which are experiencing strong fluctuations.
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Macro & Oil Report: “But” is the key word
There were few marked variations in the markets last week, with the notable exception of the decline in oil prices, which is mainly explained by a rise in fears of recession. However, Olivier Gasnier tells us that the situation is far from clear, as the indicators supporting these fears are always accompanied by signals that put them into perspective. “But” is the key word.
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Gas & Power Report: "Muted demand and comfortable stocks continue to weigh on energy prices"
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about recent trends in wholesale energy markets, with muted demand, global macroeconomic factors, and maintenance programs affecting prices. A stable to bearish sentiment prevails globally.
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Macro and Oil Report: "Already less growth but still too much inflation"
Despite the recovery in China, the IMF is expressing fears about global growth and the Fed is raising the prospect of a "mild recession". But in this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that central banks are probably not quite done with inflation yet and are likely to raise their key rates again, especially as oil prices continued to rise last week.
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Gas and Power Report: "Energy markets looking for a direction after the Easter break"
In this week’s podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the recent decline in global coal prices due to weak demand and the significant increase in the risk premium for French power prices amid concerns over thermal cracks and stress corrosion issues at French nuclear plants.
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Macro and Oil Report: "Increasing signs the US economy is sliding into recession"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the accumulation of economic indicators suggesting that the US economy is sliding into recession. Does this mean that central bank rate hikes are over? For the Fed, that moment is near. OPEC's decision to cut production had only a limited effect on oil prices: less supply, but potentially less demand down the road; the markets remain cautious.
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Gas & Power Report: "Short lived spike on energy markets after OPEC cutting quotas announcement"
In this week's Gas & Power report EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about how the OPEC announcement to cut production quotas triggered a short lived spike through Sunday to Tuesday, on which gains were mostly erased. Risk premium on Q1 2024 french baseload continues increasing as we still have no news from EDF or the French security authority on nuclear power. EUA market prices volatile at the moment as the market seems directionless and in search for a new range to consolidate within.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The threat of a banking crisis is receding. OPEC revives inflation fears"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about how the banking crisis seems to have had less of an effect than what was initially forecasted and how Central Banks are therefore refocusing on managing inflation throughout the global economy. On the oil market, OPEC surprises all with a cut in production quotas, most likely to send a strong signal to the market that it will not let prices fall without reacting.
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Gas & Power Report: "Rising risk premium for French power prices"
In this week's Gas & Power EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about relatively calm power markets though with a slight bullish upturn most likely driven by the rise of French Cal'24 prices. Fundamentals for this include the ongoing strikes in France against the polemical pension reform, news of what could be a long lasting defect on Nuclear reactors, thus threatening nuclear availibility for the year to come, and slightly colder temperatures in the coming week. EUA market are also slightly upturn trending though overall the market is calm, nervously awaiting news on the banking crisis.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Between inflation and banking crisis"
In this week's Macro & Oil EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the two opposite trends sweeping the Global Economy at the moment : loss of confidence due to the banking crisis and fears of recession? Or economies doing well and therefore still enough leeway to combat inflation? The oil market stays a collateral victim of market confidence.
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Gas & Power Report: "Mixed energy prices amidst a bustling environment."
In this weekly Gas&Power report, Julien Hoarau tells us about French nuclear availability and issues EDF encounters, impact of French strikes on central western power markets, and the consequences of the current banking crisis. European gas prices are volatile, with this deteriorating macro-economic environment, but fundamentals remain comfortable with steady LNG imports, and weak demand amidst mild though changing weather.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Monetary tightening leads to a major banking crisis."
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the Silicon Valley Bank debacle and its repercussions on the American financial system. He also explains how this has affected Europe and details the recent Creduit Suisse buyout by UBS and its consequences. The oil market is a collateral victim of the banking crisis. The question remains of whether Central Banks will choose to continue raising rates to combat inflation in the face of recession and financial crisis.
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Gas & Power Report: "Short-lived price spike in European energy markets."
In this week's Gas & Power report, Julien Hoarau tells us about the short spike lives spike in prices of European gas and power at the end of last week as well as the consequences of the recent news of an issue in one of the nuclear reactors in France, which could lead to a potential cut in EDF's forecasted electricity production target for this year.
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Gas & Power Report: "French strikes cause temporary decoupling in gas & power markets. Now back to normal?"
In this week's Gas & Power report, Julien Hoarau talks about the consequences of the French general strikes on Tuesday on the power and gas markets. He also reports on a recent evolution in French nuclear activity as a deep crack has been discovered on an emergency circuit of a shutdown reactor in Penly 1. A couple evolutions in the drafting of the Power Market redesign by the European Commission have been leaked.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Unexpectedly high inflation rate in Eurozone"
In this weekly Macro & Oil report podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about how inflation is up in the Eurozones which is bound to mean higher rates and for longer time. The trends are less alarming in the US where it seems it is only job growth which is resisting monetary policy. Chinese demand is on the rise with positively high PMIs yet a modest target for GDP growth (only 5%). Particularly stable oil market with a slight increase in crack spreads.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Rates are going up, up, up..."
In this week's Macro & Oil energyscan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the declines in the equity market for the third week in a row, surely due to monetary policy not functioning as well as expected, as inflation is still high and PMIs are on the rise. Markets are including more rate hikes in the US and EU in their forecasts, probably until at least June. On the oil market, prices are not moving much. The recovery of Chinese demand is staying a key factor.
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Gas & Power Report: "EUA prices breach the €100/t mark but gas and power markets remain stable"
In this week's Gas&Power Energyscan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about the fundamentals surrounding the slow downward trend of European Gas prices, approaching perhaps a threshold which could lead to a rebound in industrial demand in Europe and Asia. He explains that power spot prices are fairly stable in CWE averaging 150 Eur/MwH and that french nuclear availability, while admitting low results in 2022, has set its targets much higher for 2023 as it phases out of its stress corrosion issues low period. The EUA market has also been busy with credits having passed the symbolic 100 Eur/t threshold, though not pushed up by fundamentals but rather speculating entities.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Global fears of inflation back on the rise"
The publication of much higher than expected US inflation numbers last week prompted the market to re-evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy, and thus fear longer and higher rate hikes. These fears have also made their way to Japan, England and the EU, where next week, the publication of PMIs and the ZEW review in Germany should confirm or not the trend. On the oil market, prices are falling slightly but positive factors seem to be increasingly winning out. High-frequency indicators confirm that car and air traffic in China is rebounding more strongly than last year, which should of course support oil demand.
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Gas & Power Report: "European energy markets still in wait-and-see mode"
In this episode of the weekly EnergyScan podcast about the Gas&Power markets, Julien Hoarau tells us about how gas and power prices are trading rangebound mode and that is, despite moving fundamentals. Indeed, weather is volatile with forecasts predicting milder weather this week and a cold spell to come. Gas supply is also experiencing bumps with preoccupations after a partial outage in Norway last week. However, these factors are leaving markets unmoved as they wait and see. EU regulation is also heavy this week, creating intense volatility on the carbon market.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Markets resolve to consider much less favourable scenarios"
In this episode of the weekly EnergyScan podcast about the Macro&Oil podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the movements in market sentiment : spirits were very high last week after the Fed announced a diminution of rate hikes, but are back down now due to the publication of the high US job figures last week. Could this mean another round of monetary tightening? In Europe, there are indications of looming recession and yet the central banks are still pushing rate hikes higher and at the same rate. On the oil market, bullish trends pushed by fundamentals such as Russia cutting supply and Saudi Aramco raising its prices on the Asian market due to Chinese demand recovery.
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Gas & Power Report: "European Energy prices in rangebound trading mode"
In this week's Gas & Power report for the EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about the relatively calm week on gas and power markets. Gas and Power prices are trading rangebound mode, which is to say within a certain range, aka. stable. Next week is expected to bring milder weather which is bringing out bearish tendencies on power markets. As Chinese demand recovers, Asian LNG imports are increasing. French Nuclear Availability is expected to peak this week. EU parliament is about to vote on the REPowerEU frontloading and the revision of the Market Stability Reserve next week.
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Macro & Oil Report: "More questions than answers after an eventful week"
In this week's Macro & Oil report, Olivier Gasnier gives us important insight on the eventful last week and what one should retain of the Fed, BoE and ECB meetings. He tells us how the economy is adjusting to rate hikes and what that means for the near future.
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Gas & Power Report: "A Busy Week on the Gas market"
In this week's Gas & Power report podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about the upcoming cold temperatures, how they'll affect gas fundamentals, and what the fall of energy prices in Europe means for demand destruction.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Busy week ahead"
In this week's Macro&Oil report podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the many events on this week's economic calendar and how markets are anticipating the Fed, BoE and ECB meetings. On the oil market, the upcoming EU embargo on oil products is promising some volatility and uncertainty as Europe fears supply concerns.
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What to expect for energy markets in 2023?
Inflation, recession, supply risks, industrial energy demand, China’s economic recovery: what will be the key drivers of energy prices in 2023? Olivier Gasnier and Julien Hoarau analyze the trends and the main expectations for the coming months in this special podcast.
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Gas & Power Report: "Temperatures are down but optimism is still up for European energy supply."
In this week's Gas&Power podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about the fact that temperatures being lower than average in these few first week's of January mean a slight increase in gas demand, but yet that there is no fear to have about the level of gas storage accross Europe. On the power side, nuclear capacity being back in the game and the hydroelectric production are together painting the picture of a nicely power supplied France.
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