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ENGIE EnergyScanApr 19, 2023
Macro & Oil Report: Markets twist central bankers' arms
Disinflation is taking hold and the fall in bond yields is accelerating. In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains that the markets want central bank rate cuts from the end of winter, despite their obvious reluctance to envisage such a scenario. OPEC's failure to prevent the fall in oil prices reinforces their strategy.
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Gas & Power Report: Bears in charge of energy prices in Europe
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the drop in wholesale energy prices in Europe despite the onset of the first cold winter weather episode. Is this bearish trend backed by fundamentals and is it due to last?
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Macro & Oil Report: Hesitation
In the latest EnergyScan podcast on Macro & Oil, Olivier Gasnier explains that the markets are optimistic about a possible US soft landing, while business sentiment seems to stabilise in Europe. But the indicators are mixed and the Chinese property crisis is back in the spotlight
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices still find resistance on the downside in Europe
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the slowly decreasing risk premium in energy prices in Europe despite a comfortable supply/demand balance in the short term and about recent developments on the future price scheme for French nuclear power sales.
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Macro & Oil Report: The perfect scenario?
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains that the ideal scenario of disinflation and soft landing seems to be taking shape, but that the risks of things not going according to plan have not disappeared.
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Macro & Oil Report: Long-term bond yields fell too early and too fast
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG notes that the markets overreacted to the US job report. The risk of inflation has not disappeared, rates have rebounded and this week promises to be decisive with the publication of US inflation figures. Symmetrically, isn't the fall in oil prices and the disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium premature?
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Gas & Power Report: Late winter start pressures the prompt
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the disconnection between spot and forward curve prices at European energy markets due to the combination of weak demand and comfortable supply in the short-term on one side and lingering geopolitical risks and uncertainty for the remainder of the winter period on the other side
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Macro & Oil Report: Markets bury "higher for longer" as quickly as they embraced it
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG explains why bond yields have fallen dramatically, wiping out the rise seen since September. Have markets overreacted, or is this a real turning point? On the oil front, prices are falling in the absence of any contagion from the conflict between Israel and Hamas to the whole of the Middle East.
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices seek direction
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the state of European gas and power future prices which remain supported at a relatively high level by geopolitical risks despite a weak energy demand context.
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Macro & Oil Report: Sharp rebound in bond yields despite geopolitical risk
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG discusses the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on oil prices and explains why interest rates are continuing to increase in the face of rising geopolitical risk.
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Gas & Power Report: Gas supply concerns are back to the fore
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the jump in energy prices in Europe following the Hamas attack on Israel and the leak detected on the Balticconnector pipeline.
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Macro & Oil Report: Falling oil prices & rising bond yields, but geopolitical risk is back with a vengeance
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG explains that last week was marked by the resilience of the US economy, a sharp rise in bond yields and a fall in oil prices due to fears of falling demand. But the attack on Israel by Hamas has added a geopolitical risk to an already complex context.
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Gas & Power Report: Waiting for the start of the heating season
Energy markets officially entered the winter season a few days ago with prices coming under strong bearish pressure since then. In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about the drivers behind this move and the potential way forwards for energy prices until heating demand finally picks up in Europe.
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Macro & Oil Report: Long-term interest rates continue to rise, despite disinflation
Olivier Gasnier tells us that the rise in real interest rates will only accentuate the credit crunch. This is not good news for growth prospects.
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Macro & Oil Report: Rising oil prices fuel fears of "higher for longer"
After a series of central bank meetings, Olivier Gasnier explains the difference between the ECB's dovish hike and the Fed's hawkish pause. The surge in oil prices is also exacerbating fears that interest rates will have to go higher and stay there longer.
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Gas & Power Report: Towards an easing of energy supply risks in Europe?
In this week Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the impact of the latest news regarding the Norwegian gas maintenance program and the strikes at Australian LNG plants on European energy markets.
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Macro & Oil Report: ECB kicks off central bank meetings
This is a key week ahead with US inflation and the ECB meeting. Olivier Gasnier tells us that contrary to market expectations, if the ECB does pause, it is likely for good, given the deterioration in economic indicators.
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Gas & Power Report: "LNG strikes in Australia & fading risk premium for French power: the European energy summer hits"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast Julien Hoarau discusses about the two main stories that emerged from European energy markets over the past few weeks: concerns over potential strikes at Australian LNG export plants and the drop in French power prices for delivery next winter.
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Macro & Oil Report: An end to rate hikes? The jury is still out after Jackson Hole
Central banks are now faced with a trade-off between the desire to reduce core inflation and avoid plunging the economy into recession. OG tells us that the end of rate hikes is approaching, but the bias of monetary policy remains bullish, especially as oil price products are rising.
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Macro & Oil Report: The Bank of Japan steals the show from the Fed and the ECB
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us what to take away from the meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan before the Bank of England this week. He also talks about the continuing rise in oil prices.
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Macro & Oil Report: Last rate hikes for the Fed and ECB
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us markets have revised down their expectations of rate hikes in Europe, but are still refusing to consider an upside risk for the Fed as a crucial week opens with meetings of the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ.
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices looking for direction amid scorching weather in the US and southern Europe
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the impact of the heatwave on energy demand in southern Europe and the recent moves in gas and power prices following the widely-awaited restart of the Nyhamna gas platform in Norway
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Macro & Oil Report: US disinflation boosts risk appetite
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG explains how and why the fall in the US inflation rate in June has reinforced the markets' belief that next week's Fed rate hike will be the last.
Gas & Power Report: "Weak demand and an improving supply picture weigh on energy prices"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the drop in energy prices in Europe over the past trading sessions and the potential for further downside on the back of poor economic figures in the industrial sector and improving supply fundamentals
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Gas & Power Report: "Diverging paths for energy prices in Europe"
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the various price moves observed across European energy markets since the beginning of July with another episode of very negative spot power prices, diverging trends between prompt and forward prices at gas hubs, and a tightening of the FR-DE base power spread.
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Macro & Oil Report: Back to the old "have your cake and eat it" approach
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us that market concerns about the need for further monetary tightening quickly dissipated: the market is back to a configuration where growth is resilient without pushing central bank rates too high. We will also see that oil prices are rising in anticipation of Saudi Arabia's production cut in July and now in August, as they just announced.
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Gas & Power Report: "Nervousness prevails at European energy markets"
In this week’s Gas and Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the high volatility level of European energy prices following the short squeeze that took place in the first half of June.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The optimism machine is running out of steam"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG tells us that the prospect of a soft landing for the Western economies, steered by central banks that would manage to keep inflation under control without excessive damage to growth, is receding. What if the Fed's pause was just misleading, masking a less pleasant reality? Resilient core inflation could force central banks to tighten policy excessively, and the end result could be a recession, as usual.
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Gas & Power Report: "Supply concerns trigger a short squeeze at European gas hubs"
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the drivers behind the sharp increase in European gas prices since the beginning of June and the return of strong intraday volatility in wholesale energy markets.
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Macro & Oil Report: "A pause from the Fed, but what next?"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, OG talks to us about the crucial week ahead on the financial markets. US inflation data will precede the Fed and ECB meetings. The markets are expecting the Fed to take a break, but above all, they are looking for more visibility on what lies ahead. On the oil front, prices are continuing to fall despite the announced reduction in Saudi Arabian production.
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Gas & Power Report: "Short-lived spike or trend reversal in European energy prices?"
In this 50th episode of EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the sharp rebound in wholesale gas and power prices amid a downward adjustment in LNG supply to Europe. On the regulatory side, the European Commission announced that emergency measures taken to manage the energy crisis that have been agreed at the end of last year will not be extended.
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Macro & Oil Report: Hopes of disinflation in the face of tensions on the labour market and OPEC policy
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier wonders whether it's reasonable to expect the Fed to stop raising rates when the labor market remains so tight. He also looks back at Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production again to support oil prices.
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Gas & Power Report: The downward trend in European gas prices shows no sign of abating
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the further drop in wholesale gas prices amid a lack of demand response and poor economic figures in Europe. French future power prices reduced their premium to neighboring markets while coal and EUA prices also fell in line with weak fundamentals.
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Macro & Oil Report: " Agreement on US debt but Fed rate hike may not be over "
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier OG tells us that one threat is replacing another in the US: a vote to raise the US debt ceiling is expected soon, but the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise rates is increasing, even if there is a pause in June.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The raising of the US debt ceiling under close scrutiny"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the need to raise the US debt ceiling. With a few days to go before the deadline, an agreement has still not been reached but the markets remain serene. The prospect of a pause in Fed rates, while the US economy remains resilient, is helping to maintain this optimism. Oil prices have rebounded after four weeks of decline in a row.
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Gas & Power Report: Energy prices remain under bearish pressure in Europe
In this week's Gas & Power podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about the reduction of the contango on the EU gas curve and the further drop in spot gas and power prices amid weak energy demand and comfortable gas stock levels in Europe.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The rebound in the dollar exacerbates the fall in the oil price"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains why the dollar has just rebounded to its highest level in two months as the US economy sends worrying signals and the Fed may have completed its rate hike. The dollar is a safe haven. Its rise reinforces the downward pressure on the price of oil, which has just recorded its 4th consecutive week of decline. Want to learn more? Start your EnergyScan free trial here: https://bit.ly/3UBfVEH
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Gas & Power Report: Gas prices continue to ease in Europe
In this weekly podcast for Gas & Power, we discuss about the continuation of the bearish trend in European gas prices as well as the volatility in power prices following the confirmation of EDF’s nuclear production target for 2023.
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Macro & Oil Report "Fed & ECB: similar decisions, different outlook"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier looks back at the rate hikes announced by the Fed and ECB last week. Behind the identical decisions (25bp rate hikes), we can see a rather different discourse reflecting uncertainty about the impact of monetary policies on growth and inflation. The markets are a bit confused, as are oil prices which are experiencing strong fluctuations.
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Macro & Oil Report: “But” is the key word
There were few marked variations in the markets last week, with the notable exception of the decline in oil prices, which is mainly explained by a rise in fears of recession. However, Olivier Gasnier tells us that the situation is far from clear, as the indicators supporting these fears are always accompanied by signals that put them into perspective. “But” is the key word.
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Gas & Power Report: "Muted demand and comfortable stocks continue to weigh on energy prices"
In this week's podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses about recent trends in wholesale energy markets, with muted demand, global macroeconomic factors, and maintenance programs affecting prices. A stable to bearish sentiment prevails globally.
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Macro and Oil Report: "Already less growth but still too much inflation"
Despite the recovery in China, the IMF is expressing fears about global growth and the Fed is raising the prospect of a "mild recession". But in this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that central banks are probably not quite done with inflation yet and are likely to raise their key rates again, especially as oil prices continued to rise last week.
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Gas and Power Report: "Energy markets looking for a direction after the Easter break"
In this week’s podcast, Julien Hoarau discusses the recent decline in global coal prices due to weak demand and the significant increase in the risk premium for French power prices amid concerns over thermal cracks and stress corrosion issues at French nuclear plants.
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Macro and Oil Report: "Increasing signs the US economy is sliding into recession"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the accumulation of economic indicators suggesting that the US economy is sliding into recession. Does this mean that central bank rate hikes are over? For the Fed, that moment is near. OPEC's decision to cut production had only a limited effect on oil prices: less supply, but potentially less demand down the road; the markets remain cautious.
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Gas & Power Report: "Short lived spike on energy markets after OPEC cutting quotas announcement"
In this week's Gas & Power report EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about how the OPEC announcement to cut production quotas triggered a short lived spike through Sunday to Tuesday, on which gains were mostly erased. Risk premium on Q1 2024 french baseload continues increasing as we still have no news from EDF or the French security authority on nuclear power. EUA market prices volatile at the moment as the market seems directionless and in search for a new range to consolidate within.
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Macro & Oil Report: "The threat of a banking crisis is receding. OPEC revives inflation fears"
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about how the banking crisis seems to have had less of an effect than what was initially forecasted and how Central Banks are therefore refocusing on managing inflation throughout the global economy. On the oil market, OPEC surprises all with a cut in production quotas, most likely to send a strong signal to the market that it will not let prices fall without reacting.
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Gas & Power Report: "Rising risk premium for French power prices"
In this week's Gas & Power EnergyScan podcast, Julien Hoarau tells us about relatively calm power markets though with a slight bullish upturn most likely driven by the rise of French Cal'24 prices. Fundamentals for this include the ongoing strikes in France against the polemical pension reform, news of what could be a long lasting defect on Nuclear reactors, thus threatening nuclear availibility for the year to come, and slightly colder temperatures in the coming week. EUA market are also slightly upturn trending though overall the market is calm, nervously awaiting news on the banking crisis.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Between inflation and banking crisis"
In this week's Macro & Oil EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the two opposite trends sweeping the Global Economy at the moment : loss of confidence due to the banking crisis and fears of recession? Or economies doing well and therefore still enough leeway to combat inflation? The oil market stays a collateral victim of market confidence.
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Gas & Power Report: "Mixed energy prices amidst a bustling environment."
In this weekly Gas&Power report, Julien Hoarau tells us about French nuclear availability and issues EDF encounters, impact of French strikes on central western power markets, and the consequences of the current banking crisis. European gas prices are volatile, with this deteriorating macro-economic environment, but fundamentals remain comfortable with steady LNG imports, and weak demand amidst mild though changing weather.
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Macro & Oil Report: "Monetary tightening leads to a major banking crisis."
In this week's Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the Silicon Valley Bank debacle and its repercussions on the American financial system. He also explains how this has affected Europe and details the recent Creduit Suisse buyout by UBS and its consequences. The oil market is a collateral victim of the banking crisis. The question remains of whether Central Banks will choose to continue raising rates to combat inflation in the face of recession and financial crisis.
Our podcasts focuses on innovative and comprehensive insights on macro-economic indicators as well as oil, gas, coal, power and EUA markets from top experts at ENGIE Global Energy Management and Sales. Follow us to stay up-to date about energy market trends in no time, build market views with top-quality data and interact with experts to support your decision making.
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