ING THINK aloud

As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets. 

As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s.

China, the world’s second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING’s Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.      

Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.

In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.

As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.

As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.

With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING’s sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.

In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.

In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.

One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.

Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey discuss what they expect from the market next year.

The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Instead, meaningful progress on critical issues has stalled, with some countries even being accused of backsliding on their original commitments. Still, ING economist Gerben Hieminga and ESG researcher Coco Zhang are cautiously optimistic about the outcome.

After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that rates may need to stay higher for longer, as the Fed battles to contain inflation near a 40-year high. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley and Regional Head of Americas, Padhraic Garvey, discuss what this could mean for the US economy and market interest rates over the coming year. 

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's intervention will be enough to stave off a financial crisis.

In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the implications of intervention in energy markets in Europe and the outlook for monetary policy.

The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains why - and shares his broader outlook for the FX world in the months ahead.

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'exceptionally' uncertain backdrop, the central bank also pledged to act 'forcefully' again in the future. In this podcast, ING's James Smith discusses the rationale behind the decision and what could happen next. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability to implement the proposal. In this podcast, ING's Deputy General Counsel Tim Meehan and ESG Analyst Coco Zhang explain why the rules matter so much for investors and what could happen now.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week and left the door open for further hikes in a bid to combat the highest inflation on record. But the Bank also announced a new bond-buying programme to soften the blow of rising rates amid a political crisis in Italy, a deteriorating economic outlook, and fears of a new debt crisis. ING's Carsten Brzeski says the strategy is akin to stepping on the brakes and the accelerator at the same time. So can it work? What's the central bank's next move? And what does it all mean for Europe's economic outlook? 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the battle to contain inflation without triggering a recession will be "very challenging". In this podcast, ING's International Economist James Knightley discusses his expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead and whether the central bank can engineer a soft landing.

The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the UK's cost of living crisis this year, with real disposable incomes set to drop by the most on record. In this podcast, ING economist James Smith discusses the outlook for growth and inflation, and what the unprecedented squeeze on living standards means for future fiscal and monetary policy. 

Global commodity markets have been swinging wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine, with everything from oil to wheat caught up in the crisis. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the challenge of reducing western dependency on Russia, and where the markets may be heading next.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dampened expectations for economic growth in Europe and raised forecasts for inflation, making life more difficult for the European Central Bank. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, discusses how the war has changed his outlook for the economy and what the central bank should now.

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne reflect on a historic week that has shaken confidence and rocked financial markets around the world.

Carbon markets have been hailed as a solution to climate change. But how do they work? Will they be effective in bringing emissions down to levels that the earth can sustain, or are they simply an exercise in greenwashing? ING economist Samuel Abettan shares his views in this podcast.

The Federal Reserve is optimistic about US growth prospects next year, with policymakers now calling for three interest rate hikes in 2022. But the US bond market appears to be sending a rather different signal, with a flattening yield curve suggesting the recovery could be cut short. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey discusses why long-term yields have remained so low in the face of soaring inflation and impending rate hikes, and whether things could change in 2022.

The Omicron variant will hit economic growth in Europe over the coming months, but won't derail the recovery next year, according to ING's Carsten Brzeski, who remains optimistic about the region's prospects despite a recent surge in the virus and restrictions to contain its spread.

It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the planet, climate activists have called it an abject failure, with former Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Rupert Read describing the outcome as "stunningly, pitifully, entirely inadequate". In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan and Coco Zhang say the truth lies somewhere in between.

To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley provides some answers. 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the UK economy is recovering faster than its major competitors and public finances are stabilising. Economic growth for this year has been revised up to 6.5% from 4% in March. But taxes are going up, too, with the tax burden set to rise to the highest level in 70 years. At the same time, markets expect the Bank of England to embark on a series of interest rate hikes, starting next week. With signs that the economy may be starting to lose momentum though, is it too much too soon? ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith takes a look. 

Financial markets have brushed off the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, as well as a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer, Evergrande. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets, Chris Turner, explains why and what it means for global currencies.

Inflation risks are rising in Europe. But will the region's bond markets take note? European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech this week that while much of the recent rise in prices is transitory, the mood in financial markets is changing and there are growing signs that supply disruptions and commodity shortages may be more prolonged than first thought. In this podcast, ING's Antoine Bouvet shares his thoughts. 

Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide. But ahead of the COP26 climate change talks in November, only a handful of Asian countries have made firm commitments to achieving a net-zero carbon future. And getting there will be a monumental challenge. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why.

China cracked down on the online gaming industry this week, the latest in a series of policies aimed at strengthening the public sector and reining in private enterprise. But the reforms could bring short-term economic pain at a time when China is already struggling with the Covid pandemic, chip shortages and widespread flooding, as ING's Iris Pang explains in this podcast.

France's Covid health pass will be extended next week to a wider range of public venues including cafes and restaurants, as the government doubles down on efforts to contain a fourth wave of infections. In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan looks at the economic implications of the new measures and what they could mean for French President Emmanuel Macron.

The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be temporary, unresolved supply issues and the rise of electric cars, which are even more reliant on chips, suggest there may be bumps in the road ahead, as ING's Oleksiy Soroka explains.

Emerging markets have been resilient this year despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in June and fresh lockdowns in some countries that threaten to derail the recovery. In this podcast, ING's Trieu Pham discusses why the calm has prevailed and how long it's likely to last.

OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies, sending Brent to a three-year high and WTI to levels not seen since 2014. Since then, prices have fallen back with some market participants still expecting a deal to be struck while others say the disagreement could lead to a price war. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson shares his thoughts on OPEC's next move, and what it could mean for prices.

The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting. In this podcast, ING's James Smith weighs in on the debate and looks at the prospects for a rate hike as soon as next year.

A hawkish Federal Reserve meeting has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for asset purchases and the timing of interest rate hikes. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey looks at the implications for the US Treasury market.

The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski discusses the Bank's latest decision and when it may be forced to change tack. 

US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, or a more sustained risk to the recovery. 

Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.

Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner looks at how the monetary policy debate is shifting both inside and outside the US and how global currency markets are responding. Plus, a little something on Bitcoin...

US-China relations have worsened under the Biden Administration, with both sides openly trading barbs and Trump-era trade tariffs remaining firmly in place. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings discusses what's likely to happen next and what it could mean for world trade this year. 

India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developments in the pandemic and whether India's economy and markets can weather the storm. 

Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin the transition. In this podcast, Warren Patterson looks at which metals will benefit the most and whether rising investment in green infrastructure could herald a supercycle for commodities.