ING THINK aloud
ING THINK aloudMay 25, 2023
What the US debt ceiling drama means for the dollar
As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.
Hiking into a banking crisis
As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.
Emerging markets: Resilience amid uncertainty
With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING’s sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.
Constructive on credit
In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.
Price stability vs financial stability
In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.
Higher for longer
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.
Ukraine war, one year on
One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.
Are we there yet?
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.
What to expect from commodity markets in 2023
Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey discuss what they expect from the market next year.
COP27: A climate cop out?
The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Instead, meaningful progress on critical issues has stalled, with some countries even being accused of backsliding on their original commitments. Still, ING economist Gerben Hieminga and ESG researcher Coco Zhang are cautiously optimistic about the outcome.
Listen: Rate hikes, recession, rate cuts
After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that rates may need to stay higher for longer, as the Fed battles to contain inflation near a 40-year high. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley and Regional Head of Americas, Padhraic Garvey, discuss what this could mean for the US economy and market interest rates over the coming year.
Quid Game: UK markets live to fight another day
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's intervention will be enough to stave off a financial crisis.
Inflation, intervention and interest rates
In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the implications of intervention in energy markets in Europe and the outlook for monetary policy.
ECB rate hikes won't change euro's trajectory
The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains why - and shares his broader outlook for the FX world in the months ahead.
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'exceptionally' uncertain backdrop, the central bank also pledged to act 'forcefully' again in the future. In this podcast, ING's James Smith discusses the rationale behind the decision and what could happen next.
'Game changing' SEC climate rules at risk
The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability to implement the proposal. In this podcast, ING's Deputy General Counsel Tim Meehan and ESG Analyst Coco Zhang explain why the rules matter so much for investors and what could happen now.
ECB: One more and done
The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week and left the door open for further hikes in a bid to combat the highest inflation on record. But the Bank also announced a new bond-buying programme to soften the blow of rising rates amid a political crisis in Italy, a deteriorating economic outlook, and fears of a new debt crisis. ING's Carsten Brzeski says the strategy is akin to stepping on the brakes and the accelerator at the same time. So can it work? What's the central bank's next move? And what does it all mean for Europe's economic outlook?
Can the Fed avoid a crash landing?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the battle to contain inflation without triggering a recession will be "very challenging". In this podcast, ING's International Economist James Knightley discusses his expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead and whether the central bank can engineer a soft landing.
Britain's cost of living crisis
The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the UK's cost of living crisis this year, with real disposable incomes set to drop by the most on record. In this podcast, ING economist James Smith discusses the outlook for growth and inflation, and what the unprecedented squeeze on living standards means for future fiscal and monetary policy.
How the Russia-Ukraine crisis will reshape commodity markets
Global commodity markets have been swinging wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine, with everything from oil to wheat caught up in the crisis. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the challenge of reducing western dependency on Russia, and where the markets may be heading next.
The economic price of the war in Europe
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dampened expectations for economic growth in Europe and raised forecasts for inflation, making life more difficult for the European Central Bank. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, discusses how the war has changed his outlook for the economy and what the central bank should now.
What the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for global FX markets
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne reflect on a historic week that has shaken confidence and rocked financial markets around the world.
Putting a price on carbon
Carbon markets have been hailed as a solution to climate change. But how do they work? Will they be effective in bringing emissions down to levels that the earth can sustain, or are they simply an exercise in greenwashing? ING economist Samuel Abettan shares his views in this podcast.
Bond yields: No time to die
The Federal Reserve is optimistic about US growth prospects next year, with policymakers now calling for three interest rate hikes in 2022. But the US bond market appears to be sending a rather different signal, with a flattening yield curve suggesting the recovery could be cut short. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey discusses why long-term yields have remained so low in the face of soaring inflation and impending rate hikes, and whether things could change in 2022.
Why Omicron is no game changer for Europe's growth outlook
The Omicron variant will hit economic growth in Europe over the coming months, but won't derail the recovery next year, according to ING's Carsten Brzeski, who remains optimistic about the region's prospects despite a recent surge in the virus and restrictions to contain its spread.
COP26: 'Pitifully inadequate' or 'truly historic'?
It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the planet, climate activists have called it an abject failure, with former Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Rupert Read describing the outcome as "stunningly, pitifully, entirely inadequate". In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan and Coco Zhang say the truth lies somewhere in between.
A time to taper
To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley provides some answers.
The UK's twin tightening gamble
Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the UK economy is recovering faster than its major competitors and public finances are stabilising. Economic growth for this year has been revised up to 6.5% from 4% in March. But taxes are going up, too, with the tax burden set to rise to the highest level in 70 years. At the same time, markets expect the Bank of England to embark on a series of interest rate hikes, starting next week. With signs that the economy may be starting to lose momentum though, is it too much too soon? ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith takes a look.
What the Fed taper means for global FX markets
Financial markets have brushed off the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, as well as a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer, Evergrande. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets, Chris Turner, explains why and what it means for global currencies.
What Europe's inflation angst means for bonds
Inflation risks are rising in Europe. But will the region's bond markets take note? European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech this week that while much of the recent rise in prices is transitory, the mood in financial markets is changing and there are growing signs that supply disruptions and commodity shortages may be more prolonged than first thought. In this podcast, ING's Antoine Bouvet shares his thoughts.
The cost and credibility of Asia's climate goals
Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide. But ahead of the COP26 climate change talks in November, only a handful of Asian countries have made firm commitments to achieving a net-zero carbon future. And getting there will be a monumental challenge. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why.
What China's sweeping socialist reforms mean for the economy
China cracked down on the online gaming industry this week, the latest in a series of policies aimed at strengthening the public sector and reining in private enterprise. But the reforms could bring short-term economic pain at a time when China is already struggling with the Covid pandemic, chip shortages and widespread flooding, as ING's Iris Pang explains in this podcast.
What France's health pass really means for the economy
France's Covid health pass will be extended next week to a wider range of public venues including cafes and restaurants, as the government doubles down on efforts to contain a fourth wave of infections. In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan looks at the economic implications of the new measures and what they could mean for French President Emmanuel Macron.
Pains, Chains and Automobiles
The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be temporary, unresolved supply issues and the rise of electric cars, which are even more reliant on chips, suggest there may be bumps in the road ahead, as ING's Oleksiy Soroka explains.
Alarm bells ring for emerging markets
Emerging markets have been resilient this year despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in June and fresh lockdowns in some countries that threaten to derail the recovery. In this podcast, ING's Trieu Pham discusses why the calm has prevailed and how long it's likely to last.
OPEC vs OPEC: How the oil drama may unfold
OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies, sending Brent to a three-year high and WTI to levels not seen since 2014. Since then, prices have fallen back with some market participants still expecting a deal to be struck while others say the disagreement could lead to a price war. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson shares his thoughts on OPEC's next move, and what it could mean for prices.
A "dangerous moment" for the Bank of England?
The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting. In this podcast, ING's James Smith weighs in on the debate and looks at the prospects for a rate hike as soon as next year.
What the Fed's hawkish shift means for bonds
A hawkish Federal Reserve meeting has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for asset purchases and the timing of interest rate hikes. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey looks at the implications for the US Treasury market.
ECB avoids taper talk but for how long?
The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski discusses the Bank's latest decision and when it may be forced to change tack.
Why the Fed may be wrong about inflation
US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, or a more sustained risk to the recovery.
A busy year for high yield
Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.
The long and winding road to rate hikes
Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner looks at how the monetary policy debate is shifting both inside and outside the US and how global currency markets are responding. Plus, a little something on Bitcoin...
Tense times in world trade
US-China relations have worsened under the Biden Administration, with both sides openly trading barbs and Trump-era trade tariffs remaining firmly in place. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings discusses what's likely to happen next and what it could mean for world trade this year.
The economic impact of India's devastating second wave
India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developments in the pandemic and whether India's economy and markets can weather the storm.
Why copper is the new black gold
Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin the transition. In this podcast, Warren Patterson looks at which metals will benefit the most and whether rising investment in green infrastructure could herald a supercycle for commodities.
Covid's East-West divide
In Asia, second and third waves of the coronavirus are raging in some countries, with India reporting more than 100,000 new cases a day over the past week. Yet the region overall has coped better with the crisis than its peers in the West and the IMF this week raised its forecast for the Asia-Pacific economy in 2021. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why the pandemic has been more contained and what it means for the economy and markets this year.
Inequality threatens European cohesion
Far from being the 'Great Equaliser,' Covid-19 has magnified socio-economic differences across Europe, exposing fault lines both between and within countries. In this podcast, ING's Julien Manceaux and Franziska Biel discuss their latest research on rising inequality in the labour market, which they say poses a threat to European cohesion.
Europe's third wave woes
The European Commission is calling for tougher controls on vaccine exports, as the bloc struggles with a third wave of the virus and criticism over its handling of the vaccine rollout. The vaccination programme has been hindered by a slower authorisation process, delayed deliveries and suspensions over fears of possible side effects. In this podcast, ING’s Carsten Brzeski looks at how rising infections, fresh lockdowns and a sluggish pace of vaccination are likely to impact the region's economic recovery.
Money for Nothing
President Joe Biden says his $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan, for the first time, prioritises working- and middle-class Americans. But US household wealth has surged throughout the pandemic, with increases in savings spread more broadly across the income spectrum compared to Europe, as ING's James Knightley explains in this podcast.
ECB steps up stimulus but is it enough?
The European Central Bank is stepping up the pace of asset purchases in response to rising bonds yields, which have threatened to undermine the eurozone’s economic recovery. German bund yields rose to the highest level in a year last month while French 10-year bond yields climbed above zero for the first time since June. Eurozone bond markets have been tracking a rise in US Treasury yields on worries about higher inflation. But the ECB’s actions on Thursday prompted a rally in bonds, pushing yields lower. So has the bank done enough? In this podcast, ING’s Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discusses the central bank's next move and the outlook for market interest rates in the months ahead.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going where few finance ministers have gone before in the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing future tax hikes to pay for relief measures. Those measures, which were extended in Wednesday’s Budget, have pushed government borrowing to record levels. Without corrective action, Sunak said, underlying debt would rise indefinitely. And while borrowing costs are affordable now, he pointed to the recent rise in UK Gilt yields as evidence this may not be the case forever. In this podcast, ING’s Developed Markets Economist James Smith discusses whether Sunak is right to be focusing on the deficit, whether the new support measures will be effective and when the UK economy will start to recover.
Gauging the ‘taper tantrum’ fallout
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a message to nervous bond markets this week: calm down. But are traders and investors listening? 10-year Treasury yields have continued their march higher on hopes for an economic recovery, sparking concern that the move could eventually spiral into a so-called 'taper tantrum' similar to that seen in 2013. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses the prospect of a further sharp sell-off in bonds and the implications for global markets.
The rise and fall of voluntary social distancing
In economic terms, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe has been less severe than the first. Official lockdowns have been less harsh and more targeted, according to EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. But new ING research shows that other forces may be at work as well, including lower levels of voluntary social distancing. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses whether the trend will continue in the face of new mutations and a relatively slow vaccine rollout.
It gave B.B. King the blues. And Larry Summers is getting worried about it, too. Inflation in the US is set to rise in the coming months, fuelled by an economic reawakening and massive fiscal stimulus. Will the Federal Reserve be forced to respond? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley takes a look.
Emerging markets' vaccine challenge
The World Health Organization says vaccine hoarding would be a catastrophic moral failure that would keep the pandemic burning and result in a very slow global economic recovery. Yet many emerging markets still find themselves at the back of the vaccine queue, heaping further pressure on countries that are already suffering from high debt levels, soaring unemployment and growing social unrest. Until now, investors have been relatively unfazed by these risks, pouring billions into emerging market bonds and driving credit spreads close to record lows. But will that continue? ING's Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham discusses.
Risky business: Credit markets are 'very expensive'
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Bank is monitoring the corporate bond market, where spreads have narrowed to levels seen before the pandemic and yields on some of the riskiest debt are trading near historic lows. In this podcast, ING’s Jeroen van den Broek says the market is ‘very expensive’ and investors are underestimating the level of risk.
'21 is going to be a good year (for commodities)
Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more than agreed. So are the gains justified or has the rally gone too far? And how will the rest of the commodities complex perform this year? Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy in Singapore, shares his thoughts.
Hope springs eternal
With a new variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, schools, non-essential retail, pubs and restaurants have been forced to shut until the middle of February, when priority groups are expected to have been vaccinated and measures can be eased. In response to the national lockdown, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a £4.6 billion relief package but many businesses fear that won’t be enough and that more help is needed. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Developed Markets Economist James Smith what impact the new restrictions will have on the economy in the coming weeks and months.
Betting on a Brexit deal
With just two weeks to go before the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen still haven’t agreed on the terms of a future relationship. But there’s little sign of panic in financial markets. News that the negotiations will continue past the Sunday deadline and signs that the mood has become slightly more conciliatory have pushed the pound higher this week. But will this optimism last and what does it mean for the pound if ultimately, no deal is agreed? In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner discusses the outlook for sterling, and what may be in store for other currencies in 2021.
Don't worry about the debt, yet
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid the groundwork for tackling Britain's unprecedented surge in borrowing, which is set to hit a peacetime record of almost £400 billion this year. But is it too soon to be worrying about the spiralling debt load? In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey shares his thoughts
What a Biden economy might look like
President-elect Joe Biden says the Trump administration’s refusal to concede the election will not affect the transition of power. But could this lack of cooperation be a harbinger of things to come? Unless Democrats can secure two Senate seats in Georgia in a January run-off, Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber, constraining Biden’s ability to push through his economic agenda and the Democrats' proposed fiscal stimulus, worth $3.4 trillion.
The ongoing political division in Washington comes as millions of Americans remain out of work, incomes are being squeezed and rising Covid-19 cases raise the spectre of tighter restrictions. In this podcast, ING’s Chief International Economist James Knightley discusses the outlook for the US economy, with Biden at the helm.
How the US presidential election could impact Europe
President Trump's 'America First' policy has been criticised by rival Joe Biden as an isolationist strategy that has left America alone in the world, turning former allies into adversaries. The European Union may be a case in point. Faced with threats of tariffs and sanctions, trade relations have soured in recent years, with Trump calling Europe a "foe" which is "almost as bad as China". In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the coming election could influence transatlantic relations and Europe's economy.
Europe's second wave sends recovery into reverse
New lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus in Europe are threatening to plunge the region back into recession after a brief respite over the summer, while disputes among policymakers risk delaying much-needed stimulus. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses the outlook for the region in the fourth quarter and beyond.
Riskier road ahead
With more Americans than ever voting by mail in the November election, and President Trump's warning that the final outcome may not be known for months, the spectre of a delayed result is still a risk to financial markets despite Joe Biden's current lead in the polls. High yield bonds - sometimes considered to be the canary in the coal mine for broader risk assets - are starting to wobble, with the European market registering its first monthly negative return since March. Is it a sign of things to come? ING's Senior High Yield Credit Analyst Oleksiy Soroka explains.
What a Covid resurgence means for oil
A recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and new lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus have sparked concern that demand for oil could be hit at a time when supply is picking up. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the outlook for oil prices, what OPEC+ may do next and how the US presidential election could play a role.
Emerging from Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemic has ripped through the developing world this year with particular cruelty and ferocity, upending lives and livelihoods on a scale never seen before. But in markets, at least, signs of hope have started to emerge. In this podcast, ING's Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham takes a look at what the future holds for some of the hardest-hit countries in the world.
No deal Brexit is no 'cliff edge' for the UK economy (but it won't help)
The UK government has changed some of the provisions in its divorce agreement with the EU, putting strain on already tense relations with the bloc and threatening to undermine a trade deal. In response, investors have pushed the pound down against both the dollar and the euro. But is a trade deal really so much better than no deal at all? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith offers his thoughts and explains why a sudden plunge in GDP is unlikely.
The Fed, the dollar and the asset bubble
Is the Federal Reserve encouraging a stock market bubble? Critics say a recent change to the central bank's policy framework has undesirable side effects and puts the dollar at risk. Fed member Lael Brainard admitted this week that the new policy, and consequent expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer, could indeed entice investors to take more risk in the search for higher returns. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner looks at what this means for financial markets around the world.
How the economy could shape the US Presidential election
With less than 10 weeks to go until the US election, President Trump continues to trail Democrat rival Joe Biden in the polls. But the race is far from over. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses how economic developments could affect the outcome of the vote and what the result could mean for policy, and for financial markets.
End of job retention schemes risks recession in Europe
Many short-time work schemes in Europe are set to end at the turn of the year, suggesting the unemployment rate will finally start to reflect some of the huge economic damage caused by Covid-19. In this podcast ING's Carsten Brzeski tells Rebecca Byrne what he's expecting from the job market over the coming year and how this could impact the recovery.
Stocks vs bonds: Who's right?
Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, warned explicitly that the economic recovery in the US will depend on the path of Covid-19, perhaps in an effort to provide a dose of realism to buoyant equity markets. The optimism priced into stocks stands in stark contrast to the much more negative sentiment in the bond market, where Treasury yields are near record lows. In this podcast, Padhraic Garvey, ING's Regional Head of Research in the Americas, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne which market has got it right.
'Pivotal' EU summit is no panacea
EU leaders have agreed to issue common debt and hand it out as grants to struggling member states, in a move that some have compared to Alexander Hamilton's decision to federalise US debt. In this podcast, ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the agreement really means for future integration and discusses its implications for the economy and markets.
China’s multi-front economic battle post Covid-19
China’s economy is growing again. But so, too, is global pressure. The US officially rescinded Hong Kong’s special status this week while the UK is banning Huawei from its 5G network. Meanwhile, China’s relations with Canada, Australia and many of its Asian neighbours are strained by disputes over technology, trade and its pursuit of resources in the South China Sea. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Iris Pang, discusses the risks and challenges ahead with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
The UK's profound economic challenge
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid out the next phase in the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, as the economy reopens after a three-month lockdown and the worst slump in 300 years. He announced measures to support the job market, as the furlough scheme is gradually wound down, cuts to VAT and property taxes as well as restaurant vouchers, to help sectors hit particularly hard by the crisis. But will the new plans really help to minimise job losses and stimulate demand, as consumers remain wary about the virus and social distancing measures remain in place? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
Brazil's Covid crisis
With 1.4 million coronavirus cases and over 60,000 deaths, Brazil now ranks as the second worst hit country in the world after the United States. But while the political response to the crisis has been controversial, its economy will not suffer as much as some of its neighbours in the region amid sharp cuts in interest rates and generous fiscal policy. In this podcast, ING's Chief Economist for Latin America, Gustavo Rangel, discusses the outlook for the country with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
Why markets are shrugging off Covid-19
Covid-19 cases are still rising in the US. But so, too, are financial markets. The S&P 500 is on track for one of its best quarters ever while the Nasdaq recently hit a record high and the safe-haven dollar is selling off. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner explains what's been driving these moves and what may lie ahead for the currency markets in the second half of the year.
Will Climate Action Survive Covid-19?
It was supposed to be the defining year of Climate Action. But the Covid-19 pandemic and economic destruction left in its wake have created an even more pressing emergency and some fear that climate action will become another casualty of the crisis. In this podcast, Mark Cliffe, Global Head of ING's New Horizons Hub, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the pandemic could mean for the future of our planet.
Fractured Europe: Why the South will struggle to recover from Covid-19
More severe lockdowns, weaker safety nets, smaller emergency spending programmes and structural challenges pose grave risks to the economic recovery in Southern Europe. In this podcast, ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why the periphery could face a more prolonged slump than the 'core' member states.
US election 2020: Biden - His Time?
Mass protests over the police killing of George Floyd, 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented economic downturn, and 40 million Americans out of work. Rarely has an election year looked this bad for a sitting US president. And yet, the outcome remains unpredictable, with no guarantee that Democrat rival Joe Biden will win in November. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Chief International Economist James Knightley how the turmoil is likely to influence the race to the White House.
Car ownership and car sharing in a post-Covid world
The coronavirus, and associated lockdowns around the world, have upended all sectors of the global economy. But the car industry, which was already struggling before the pandemic, has been particularly hard hit. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the industry has been disrupted, what the future holds for electric vehicles and whether prolonged social distancing could put the brakes on car sharing.
Digital currencies: 'Total scam' or moving into the mainstream?
Lebanese protestors held a mock funeral for their local currency earlier this month after a financial crisis, exacerbated by the coronavirus, sent it into a tailspin. With other emerging markets also feeling the pain of a strong dollar, proponents of digital currencies are touting the benefits of a system run by algorithms rather than politicians and central banks. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Digital Finance Economist Carlo Cocuzzo whether the economic damage caused by Covid-19 could speed up the adoption of digital currencies around the world.
Lockdown lessons from Asia
As the US and UK move to ease lockdown measures, we look to countries that have already emerged from quarantine for clues about what to expect in the weeks ahead. In this podcast, ING's Head of Asia Pacific Research Rob Carnell discusses the lessons learned from Asia, how China is positioning itself on the world stage and whether the global recovery could be hampered by another trade war.
Fallen angels: The devil in disguise?
Unlike the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank has not yet discussed adding junk bonds to its asset purchase programme. But President Christine Lagarde has signalled that this option remains on the table. In this podcast, Jeroen van den Broek, ING's Global Head of Sector Research, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks the Bank will end up buying so-called 'fallen angels' and why it could be a risky strategy.
Why the Great Oil Crash may not be over
Global oil prices have recovered some ground after tanking this week to historic lows. But the outlook for crude still looks bleak. In this podcast, ING's Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why prices could turn negative again next month.
Covid-19 and the future of the euro project
European finance ministers have agreed on a €540 billion package of support for the Eurozone. But the thorny issue of debt sharing remains unresolved. Can the euro project survive without it? In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro and Chief Economist of the Eurozone, shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
Britain's economic challenges build, despite bold stimulus
The hospitalisation of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson adds another layer of uncertainty to the British economy, which is already suffering from an almost complete shutdown of activity. In this podcast, ING's Developed Market Economist James Smith talks to Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne about what lies ahead for the UK.
Covid-19: The lockdown, the recession, the recovery
President Trump extends social distancing in the US until the end of April. But like other countries around the globe, the move to limit the spread of the virus will come at a severe economic cost. In this podcast, ING's chief international economist James Knightley discusses the potential hit to growth and possible path for recovery under four coronavirus scenarios.
Counting the economic cost of the coronavirus
After an initial panic in financial markets, signs of stability have started to emerge. There's hope the coronavirus will be contained and that stimulus measures will mitigate the economic damage. But there's no question the outbreak will take a toll on global growth. In our new podcast, THINK aloud, ING’s Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Rob Carnell, head of research and chief economist of the Asia-Pacific region, how he expects the situation to play out.
Why US GDP is routinely mis-measured
Gross domestic product is a deeply flawed measure of economic growth. In fact, a new ING report claims that US GDP is consistently understated by 0.75% while inflation is overstated by 0.4%. In our new podcast, THINK Aloud, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Chief Economist Mark Cliffe to explain what's going on and why it matters.
Brexit and the battle to stop 'no deal'
Time is running out for UK lawmakers to stop a 'no deal' Brexit on October 31. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne speaks with ING economist James Smith about the options available to MPs, whether a deal can be struck at the last minute, and what all of this means for the UK economy and the pound.
Three central banks, three different strategies
Three central banks, three quite different strategies. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne explores where interest rates are heading next
Stay tuned for expert analysis that you won't find anywhere else. THINK aloud is a new podcast by ING, where we will try to make sense of the world in the most unbanky way we can