Bald Man 🧑‍🦲 $peculating 💸

It's tempting to want to draw straight line conclusions. For example, today it's easy to imagine that interest rates are destined to only keep rising. Or that economies can't grow after interest rates have risen from low levels. History says otherwise. Then, there's innovation and its effect on our economies and societies. We went through a period of rapid adoption of innovation in 2020/2021 and then a slowdown. History says that this pattern is normal. And that another period of acceleration is coming soon. In this podcast I make my case for both of these contentions.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's a new era now of high interest rates, lowish inflation and wildly fluctuating growth conditions that suggest a recession one quarter, a boom the next. In this podcast I layout the features of this new era and how to think about investing as this period of change, uncertainty unfold.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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AI fever or hype (depending on your view) is everywhere in the stock market. It's most visible in the movements of Nvidia $NVDA stock that has rocketed from about $100 last year to $500 recently. In this podcast, I discuss AI and put it in some historical context relative to other innovations and then present my case on Nvidia and its stock.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Something unusual is going on. By any standard in history, asset prices should be far lower given how high and fast interest rates have risen. In this podcast, I talk about this and go through some of the reasons, rationales and potential explanations. But, maybe there is something different going on that is not captured in current data/analysis because we've not seen something like this in recent history before.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/MampillyGuru

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The pre Covid world is not coming back. Instead we have a new world that is defined by what I call a "uncomfortably comfortable equilibrium" (UCE). This UCE has three legs that I believe are going to be the platform for what happens with everything from the economy to asset prices.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Carl Icahn's company Icahn Enterprise Partners (Symbol: IEP) cut its dividend from $2 to $1 last week. In this podcast I layout how Icahn ended up in the position of having to cut its dividend and lay out why this might mark the beginning of the end of the extraordinary boom in dividend stocks.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Bill Ackman in a long post on X (previously Twitter) revealed that he's betting on long term interest rates going higher from 4% to 5.5%. In this podcast, I look at Ackman's bet and contrast that to what Cathie Wood & I think about interest rates.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Fitch, a credit rating firm downgraded US debt today. That was a surprise. Looking at what happened after this was announced suggests that Bitcoin is about go on a run along with Defi tokens. In this podcast I explain why I believe this.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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2021 & 2022 were some of the worst conditions for growth innovation investments as macro conditions and plausible risk scenarios caused investors to sell, short and trash them lower. But today, things have taken a 180 turn. Growth/innovation including in my opinion are setting up for the best performance in years and in this podcast I lay out why.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/MampillyGuru

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3 events point to our current fiat/Fed financial system coming undone and being replaced by Bitcoin, crypto/defi & fintech (BCDF).

In this podcast I lay out the events which are set for May, July and August. Then I explain why/how these events have the capability to complete undo our current financial system and cause a digital turnover to one based on BCDF.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/MampillyGuru

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As expected the bank run crisis is continuing. And now with First Republic bank set to be taken over, we're going to see an acceleration and expansion of this crisis. An acceleration into more small, medium and regional banks and an expansion into insurance companies. In this podcast I lay out what is going on and what I believe is setting up to unfold in the coming weeks and months.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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A massive shift is about to happen in our economy. And the bank run crisis is a signal telling you that this is about to set off once in a 100 year changes in our economy and the world.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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In the last episode of this series I laid out my reasoning for why the bank run crisis is in its early stages. Then I told you that the underlying conditions for our banking/financial system have fundamentally changed and that's the true and real cause for why this is happening now. And in this episode I tell you about something that is set to happen later in July of this year that could trigger a complete change in the system. An epochal shift in how our financial system operates.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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People always imagine that change is going to be gradual, slow and where there will be plenty of time to react. The reality is that change often happens suddenly and rapidly. In 2020, the world's population went to working from home all at once. We shut down the entire world's productive capacity. All at once. In this episode I lay out why something similar is setting up to happen to the financial system and that the bank run crisis unfolding right now is the trigger for this to happen now.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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The bank run crisis is unfolding in real time right now. In this podcast, I explain what the underlying reason for it happening right now is. Why I believe it's going to keep going until our financial system is dramatically reshaped by the adoption of a new system underpinned by crypto and fintech companies.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Most information about stocks or any asset price is about value. For example, how to value a company. You can find libraries full of books about this. Yet, when it comes to information about how prices get set -- there is very little. In this podcast I lay out two ways that you can easily understand - events and games - that determine prices daily. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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I recently got my kids to start investing. And immediately I noticed a big difference in how my son and daughter engaged in it. In this podcast I lay out why the increasing participation of women into the world of investing is likely to change markets and how we go about investing -- particularly in terms of time frames.

Here's the link to the blog  that I reference: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/02/buy-hold-is-dead-long-live-buy-hold/

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's remarkable that ALL growth stocks got crushed in 2002. And ALL crypto did the same. That does not JUST happen. Nothing that big, that vast, that intense lasting 1 year, and representing trillions of dollars of value is just accidental or by coincidence.

In this podcast, I lay out part 2 of my "conspiracy" theory on what happens next in my opinion.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's remarkable that ALL growth stocks got crushed in 2002. And ALL crypto did the same. That does not JUST happen. Nothing that big, that vast, that intense lasting 1 year, and representing trillions of dollars of value is just accidental or by coincidence.

In this podcast, I lay out my "conspiracy" theory on why this happened in my opinion. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Did you know that interest rates for even the highest rated companies (blue chips) have doubled over the last 2 years? That means companies that have lots of debt face huge jumps in what they owe for interest. In this podcast, I unpack by why you'll never hear about this risk from Wall Street until it's too late. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Financial media is always focused on the business of a stock. However, most of the movements, fluctuations and variability of a stock is driven by something that only Wall Street has access to -- buying and selling decisions of big money -- companies, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. 

In this podcast I lay out this kind of information and why you'll never hear about this from Wall Street or the media. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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There is one similarity to 2008/2009 & Global Financial Crisis to now that no one is talking about. Remember what was the consensus/majority view of the time? That the US would struggle and that developing markets led by China were going to outperform. That was completely wrong. What happened was the opposite and there is something similar unfolding now in markets.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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The debt ceiling. Some folks are spinning this as a potential catastrophe. In this podcast I lay out a different scenario. And I tell you how in this scenario various stocks, commodities, currencies, assets will actually benefit from what is going on. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Southwest Airlines shut down for nearly 4 days. 2000 Flights cancelled. Thousands of passengers stranded. Estimated cost $1 bill. But, there's a bigger problem behind what caused Southwest's problems. And it's an issue for the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500. In this podcast I go into the rapidly rising risk of "tech debt" and how it's a hidden problem that no one is focused on right now. But has massive implications for "legacy" stocks and for OGI (opportunity, growth, innovation) stocks in 2023 and beyond. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment. 

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In part 5, the last episode in this series, I go into why crypto represents a critical part of what will benefit from this new world that is unfolding right now. That's because it is new and no one is invested in it, so it would benefit from a large movement away from current systems. Then, I also lay out why Japan and the Dollar's reserve status are two critical parts of the puzzle that are the trigger points for what is unfolding. 

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In part 4 of this series, I go into the risks that are created in this new world that is unfolding right now. You'll hear how certain companies and countries are going to be in the path of harm particularly if they lack access to innovation and depend on low interest rates, systemic inflation, and off shore manufacturing.

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In part 3 of this series, I go into the opportunities that are created in this new world that is unfolding right now. You'll hear how innovation is the clear, big winner along with small companies and then countries that have a favorable demographic profile.

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A big event happened yesterday. But it's true meaning is only going to be understood in hindsight. This event happened in Japan with their central bank changing their policy on how interest rates are going to be set. In part 2 of this series, I lay out what I believe is going to unfold with interest rates, inflation, dividends & buybacks and also how innovation stocks play into it. 

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A big event happened yesterday. But it's true meaning is only going to be understood in hindsight. This event happened in Japan with their central bank changing their policy on how interest rates are going to be set. In part 1 of this podcast I tell you about this event, lay out the backstory for why it matters and set you up for more about how this is going to change the world of investing for the next coming decades. 

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Why do some stock prices go up? Why suddenly in one year can a Tesla rise hundreds of percent when to folks who are following it, it seems like nothing really changed. Investment experts will say it's because the market is now "discounting" X, Y and Z. What's this discounting? How does it happen? Who does it? 

In this podcast I explain the mystery of discounting and what it is and how it unfolds and who does it. 

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People are highly focused on inflation, because it reduces the value of money. But what happens when you have deflation? 

In this podcast I show you how inflation and deflation changes the value of your investments and lay out why growth investments in stock and crypto can surge higher. 

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In 2008, the global financiers were peddling new, unknown, crazy levered up securities like they were savings accounts. But no one questioned because they were supposed to be the smartest people in the world. 

In 2022, everyone is in search of the next BIG financial crisis that's going to crash the world. There's just one thing wrong with this. 

You see, the next big crisis is unlikely to come where people are looking. In this podcast, I lay out how you have to think to figure out where the next big crisis is going to come from and why the last one will not point you to the next one. 

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The volatility in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was earth shattering. And so, of course Wall Street found a way to create products to sate that problem, which turned into a bubble for assets that don't trade regularly. 

In this podcast I tell you about this bubble, why it's setting up to pop soon and how it's one more piece of the puzzle that is going to act in our favor. 

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Most investors are highly focused on one thing -- making money right now. However, the most successful investors are focused on something else which is far more important and is what really matters.

In this podcast I lay out a 3 part checklist that every successful investor uses and thinks about before making an investment of any kind - stock, crypto, real estate, any thing. 

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Crypto contagion! Some people say take your crypto off exchanges. Others say not your keys not your crypto. Rumors, innuendo are everywhere about Coinbase, Binance and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

In today's podcast I tell you where I keep my crypto and why. I also give you my view on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust - GBTC. On the soundness of Coinbase vs Binance. The risks of leaving crypto on exchanges vs risks of holding crypto in a hard wallet. 

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So many investors begin their investment journey by looking at charts. But you know there's something completely wrong with this way of looking at prices. 

In this podcast I spell out what this basic, critical problem is and one thing you can do to understand what a chart really represents. 

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People default to referring to the S&P500 when they talk about the stock "market"? However most people have no idea what it stand for today.

In this podcast I lay out one big thing that almost no one is thinking or talking about now. And why it's going to hold back the S&P 500 for years to come. 

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If you are in crypto you are reading everyday about Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) and the implosion of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX and his hedge fund Alameda Research.

Based on the information that's out, the similarities to Madoff and the Global Financial crisis are remarkable. And in this podcast I show you one signal that would have identified the problem with SBF & FTX that you to avoid situations like this in the future.

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Elon Musk recently sat down with one of his earliest investors Ron Baron. This interview (link below) has gotten no attention. So, I wanted to lay out what was said. And to tell you what it means for Tesla. 1) No other company is even close in general autonomy. 2) There is only one company pursuing a general purpose humanoid. What would these things do to the value of Tesla and its stock? 

In this podcast I show you how these two projects are a roadmap that can lead to Tesla becoming the world's first $10 trillion and then the first $100 trillion company. 

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Bonds, Big tech stocks, Low volatility/dividend stocks and International stocks are all being sold. There is too much cash that is being generated by all this selling. It can't just stay in cash. It's simply too much. Where is it going? 

In this podcast I lay out what's going on and the only place in my opinion that this money can go into to get a positive return. 

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Is Meta stock a buy? A sell? It's stock price cratered by 25% in one day last week. In the last year it's crashed by 70%. Founder Mark Zuckerberg doesn't care. He's spend $25 billion in 2022 alone to develop the Metaverse. 

What is this Metaverse? Will it pan out? Why is Meta (the old Facebook) making this gigantic, bet the company bet on the Metaverse. 

In this second podcast on Meta and it's Metaverse development I lay out what the company is doing, how it's very similar to what Apple did while making a similar bet on the iPhone. 

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META (old Facebook) stock dropped 25% in a single day last week. Over the last 1 year it's dropped over 70%. Why? Is it because of the reasons you're hearing about -- spending on its Metaverse project? Or is it something else altogether? 

In this podcast I go into the actual shocking reason why META stock has gone down and what it means for us regular, Main Street investors. 

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Data and information make people think the past is the only way to think of the future.

This "rare" podcast, I go into why this is wrong and what I believe is right. 

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"The Axe on this stock won't let it go under $150." What???

What's an Axe? And what does it have to do with investing and the stock market.

In today's podcast I lay out the role of the Axe in investing, speculating and trading. Knowing it will change how you see prices forever!

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I recorded this on a day when stocks crashed by 3%+. No one will tell you the real reason why. 

In this podcast I lay out in clear detail why stocks crash on days like today. It's so obvious once you hear it!

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Your stock suddenly crashed. What happened? People immediately go to business explanations or use technical analysis. But there's another secret reason for it, that only Wall Street folks can tell you about. 

In this podcast, I deconstruct the machinery, the structure of how/why/when prices change "no reason."

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Have you heard the term "Sell side?" What is this sell side? Who are they? What do they do? 

In this podcast I unearth a secret thing about the markets that few people talk about -- it's the Sell side of the market. The folks who sell you stock in ways that you never knew, understood or thought about. 

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Is inflation really like the 1970s? Are we really going back to those days? That's how markets are pricing the stocks of our companies -- as if all the understandings, experiences of the last  10, 20, 50, 100 years mean nothing. In short, all the information we now have about interest rates, inflation, markets, money is meaningless. We are destined to go through perfect replicas of the past.

In this podcast, I make the case that our experience and understanding of markets matters. That means the panic mongering, the scary headlines and gloom and doom you hear everywhere is wrong. And it represents an amazing opportunity to buy stocks of OUR companies are once in a lifetime prices. 

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Most new, novice traders start out by using charts and technical analysis. Others read news from the internet and use this as their primary way to make decisions on what to buy/sell, when to buy and sell. 

In this podcast, I explain 1 big thing you're missing if you are using these way to pick stocks, trade/speculate/invest in stocks. And that these forms of analysis need something else to make them truly useful. 

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You'll find little to no coverage of this number anywhere. It's so basic, so simple, yet so critical that it's insane that it's so untalked about. 

In this podcast, I cover the number of units, shares of a company. And how knowing this, tracking it is absolutely critical for your investment success. 

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