
Crypto Voices
By Matthew Mezinskis
Podcast covering diverse trends in Bitcoin and blockchain tech, decentralization, entrepreneurship, cryptoeconomics and liberty.
Author note: All authors, whose content is featured on Crypto Voices, are contacted beforehand for permission, regardless of copyright or license such as Creative Commons. If you are an author whose work is reproduced here and you have not heard from Crypto Voices, it's because we couldn't find a way to contact you. However, in this situation your work was already licensed Creative Commons, and it was so great anyway that we just couldn't wait to turn it into audio and put it up!
Any questions, please write info@cryptovoices.com, we'd love to hear from you.
Author note: All authors, whose content is featured on Crypto Voices, are contacted beforehand for permission, regardless of copyright or license such as Creative Commons. If you are an author whose work is reproduced here and you have not heard from Crypto Voices, it's because we couldn't find a way to contact you. However, in this situation your work was already licensed Creative Commons, and it was so great anyway that we just couldn't wait to turn it into audio and put it up!
Any questions, please write info@cryptovoices.com, we'd love to hear from you.

#39 What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?
#39 What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?
Crypto VoicesMar 08, 2023
00:00
22:42

#43 What is the likelihood of Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?
#43 What is the likelihood of Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:43 Log scale
02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared)
05:57 1-sigma percentile moves
06:30 2-sigma percentile moves
08:30 3-sigma percentile moves
10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June
15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline
18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared)
22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price?
Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target?
All-time trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588%
Year end 2011 trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950%
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 21, 202325:33

#42 How much GOLD can Bitcoin buy?
#42 How much GOLD can Bitcoin buy?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:56 Bitcoin on log scale, in terms of gold
02:27 Tops and bottoms in USD, what does it mean for BTC.AU?
18:15 Bitcoin priced in gold power trendline (95% R-squared)
18:57 1-sigma percentile moves
20:42 2-sigma percentile moves
24:47 Projecting out to 2030
Here we compare the price per bitcoin in terms of gold; that is, how many gold ounces can we exchange for 1 bitcoin at any point in time? We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels.
Coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 8.14E-21 * x ^ 582%
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 20, 202327:27

Daily Recap #2 Bitcoins are Base Money, not Bank Money
Daily Recap #2 Bitcoins are Base Money, not Bank Money
This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA.
Why do bitcoins economically compare to base money, and not bank money?
Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s
Mar 17, 202304:13

Daily Recap #1 Market Money vs. Monopoly Money
Daily Recap #1 Market Money vs. Monopoly Money
This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA.
Pinpointing the difference between market money and state money as a basis for monetary philosophy!
Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s
Mar 15, 202302:20

Show 147: Alex Gladstein - CBDC Tracker
Show 147: Alex Gladstein - CBDC Tracker
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the one hundred forty-seventh podcast episode from Crypto Voices.
Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com
Matthew interviews Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation on recent banking turmoil, CBDCs, and HRF's new CBDC tracker fellowship he will be working on, together with Janine from This Month in Bitcoin Privacy, and Nick Anthony from the Cato Institute.
Contents
00:00 Intro
02:25 Silvergate and SVB
13:33 CBDCs and the HRF Tracker
Links for more info:
https://hrf.org/cbdctracker/
Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices
Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris
Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/
Podcast & videos
Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty
Thanks for watching!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 13, 202328:42

#41 MORE on the best Bitcoin valuation model
#41 MORE on the best Bitcoin valuation model
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
04:50 Remember PSR is gross ratio (before expenses)
05:20 PSR doesn't compare across industries
08:07 PSR all-time average
10:30 PSR power regression trendline (60% R-squared)
13:30 1-sigma percentile moves
14:12 2-sigma percentile moves
19:40 Log scale on right axis
We go deeper into the Bitcoin network's Price-to-sales ratio, what it looks like historically, as well as the evolution of its own power trendline with percentile bands.
Coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 4.74E-05 * x ^ 163%
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 10, 202326:26

#40 PSR: The best Bitcoin value model you've never heard of
#40 PSR: The best Bitcoin value model you've never heard of
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the fortieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:28 Origins of metric
01:54 Numerator: Market cap ($)
03:42 Denominator: Trailing-12 month miner network revenue ($)
05:55 Ratio recap and importance
09:10 "Price-to-sales" (PSR) ratio for Bitcoin
10:30 PSR: All-time low
16:20 PSR: All-time high
19:37 Basic interpretation of low and high PSR
Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in USD-terms (otherwise known as the market cap) with the miner trailing-12 month revenue (block reward + fees) across the entire network. This gives us a gross "Price-to-sales" ratio; in other words, how many multiples the network is worth versus network-wide revenues, at any given time.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 09, 202321:18

#39 What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?
#39 What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:31 Bitcoin supply in BTC-terms
02:07 Bitcoin supply in USD-terms (market cap)
02:41 Four basic regression trendlines
03:09 Bitcoin market cap power trendline (96% R-squared)
05:13 Log scale
06:30 1-sigma percentile moves
07:05 2-sigma percentile moves
19:36 Predictive trendlines
Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in native bitcoins with the Bitcoin network supply in US-dollars. We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels.
Coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 4.39E-22 * x ^ 657%
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 08, 202322:42

#38 How many bitcoins will be mined by 2030?
#38 How many bitcoins will be mined by 2030?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-eighth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:37 Block epochs ("halvings")
05:50 Projected supply until 2030
08:11 Genesis block (and client release)
11:14 How does this compare with gold and resources?
15:12 Market cap (supply in dollar-terms)
Dissecting the total Bitcoin supply curve since 3 January 2009, all the out until 31 December 2030.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 07, 202315:52

#37 Is Bitcoin mining a billion dollar industry?
#37 Is Bitcoin mining a billion dollar industry?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-seventh installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:42 Trailing-12 month revenue: Fees
01:02 Trailing-12 month revenue: Issuance
01:33 Issuance component % of total revenue
07:48 How does this compare to more established industries?
Dissecting the total issuance (block reward), PLUS network fees, paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis; in other words, total mining revenue (annualized). Similar to my last video, but now this is in USD (US-dollar) terms!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 06, 202310:59

#36 New bitcoins vs. fees: Which pays miners more?
#36 New bitcoins vs. fees: Which pays miners more?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-sixth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:54 Trailing-12 month revenue: Issuance
05:13 Trailing-12 month revenue: Fees
07:55 How long until the breakdown % crosses?
Dissecting the total issuance (block reward), PLUS network fees, paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis; in other words, total mining revenue (annualized).
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 03, 202310:03

#35 How much Bitcoin is produced per year?
#35 How much Bitcoin is produced per year?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-fifth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
02:00 Terminology: Block reward and issuance
07:08 Note: Gross not net! This is revenue before expenses
08:13 Nature of this chart: Trailing 12-month run rate
17:03 Block reward and issuance in USD terms
24:40 Power regression on USD issuance rate (93% R-squared)
30:27 1-sigma percentile bands
32:30 2-sigma percentile bands
Dissecting the total issuance (block reward) paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 02, 202336:04

#34 How much do Bitcoin miners earn per year in fees?
#34 How much do Bitcoin miners earn per year in fees?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-fourth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:45 TTM fees in BTC terms
10:30 TTM fees in USD terms
17:00 Power regression on USD TTM fees (90% R-squared)
23:00 1-sigma percentile bands
24:11 2-sigma percentile bands
Dissecting the total fees paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis.
Apologies for the audio this video... had to use backup mic!!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Mar 01, 202329:16

Show 146: Ukraine, Total Money Supply, Phone Privacy
Show 146: Ukraine, Total Money Supply, Phone Privacy
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the one hundred forty-sixth podcast episode from Crypto Voices.
Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com
Matthew and Alec review the Western stance toward Ukraine one year after Russia's invasion, the total US money supply, and phone number privacy.
Contents
00:00 Intro-UFOs
05:25 Ukraine
38:18 Total money supply USA
01:03:50 Privacy update
Links for more info:
https://chalice-perky470.medium.com/its-not-me-it-s-you-4348abbbcd10
Contact Alec at HALO for help: chalice.perky470@anonaddy.me
Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices
Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris
Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/
Podcast & videos
Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty
Thanks for watching!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 28, 202301:19:41

#33 Are credit cards part of the money supply?
#33 Are credit cards part of the money supply?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-third installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:47 M0
02:48 M1 non-M0
03:33 M2 non-M1
03:44 M3 non-M2
07:37 Assets vs. Liabilities of CCs
11:40 Batching
13:18 CC purchase volume in 2022 = $9.56 trillion
14:40 Revolving credit USA
17:08 Credit card debt vs. Demand deposits
24:00 HALO Privacy
Bonus video on the US money supply! Which "M curve" do credit card purchases and debt fit into? The answer is... none! Credit cards are an entirely different type of economic activity than bank money, and state money, which we studied in the previous twelve videos in our money supply series.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 27, 202325:27

#32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA
#32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-second installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:33 Bank reserves
02:35 Fed repos
03:55 Vault cash
05:55 M0
08:30 M1 non-M2 (Demand deposits)
10:20 M2 non-M1
11:55 M3 non-M2
14:50 State money % of Total money
15:05 Total money supply
22:40 Hybrid market vs. Free market
30:10 How does Bitcoin fit in with all of this??
34:02 How big could Eurodollars be in M3?
Here is our final video in this money supply intro series and look into the nature of the United States dollar. We are putting together central bank money, or base money - also known as state money - with all of the bank and shadow bank money supplies in the US (M1, M2, M3, or inside money). Can we learn anything about where Bitcoin might economically compare and fit in with these money supplies?
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 24, 202339:44

#31 Decoding Base Money: Gold in USA
#31 Decoding Base Money: Gold in USA
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirty-first installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
03:10 Monetary base
07:50 Gold on Fed's balance sheet (Market value)
16:30 Gold on Fed's balance sheet (Native ounces)
24:20 Gold 'reserved' at market price
33:36 Gold 'reserved' at statutory price
37:13 Central banking, free banking, gold, no gold
Here is our second video covering outside money in the United States, also known as central bank money, or reserve money, or base money, or the monetary base. In this one we are comparing base money (a liability for the Fed), with it's historical gold reserves (an asset for the Fed). How important is the idea of a gold 'reserve?'
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 23, 202338:22

#30 Decoding Base Money: USA
#30 Decoding Base Money: USA
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the thirtieth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
02:05 Inside versus Outside money
07:50 M0 is a part of both Inside and Outside money
09:20 Be cautious: M0 as defined by different central banks!
10:30 Vault cash
11:28 Bank reserves
17:30 Physical cash % of Base money
22:55 Monetary base (as officially defined)
23:30 Fed repos (Shadow bank reverse repos)
31:00 Gold vs. Fiat base money vs. Bitcoin
Here is our first video covering outside money in the United States, also known as central bank money, or reserve money, or base money, or the monetary base. M0 is included in base money, as well as the M1 money supply (which we have already covered)! Now that we have covered the inside money (fiduciary media) in the United States, we can deeper look into central bank money, or base money, and how this type of money is the core of the financial and monetary system. It economically compares with gold, silver, and bitcoin.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 22, 202334:30

#29 Decoding M3: Money supply USA
#29 Decoding M3: Money supply USA
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the twenty-ninth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:13 M0
03:04 M1
04:50 M2
06:40 M3 (Fed discontinued)
09:30 M3
19:03 M0 % of M3
21:52 M1% of M3
25:40 M2% of M3
30:27 Next up is base money
Here we have concluded the entire breakdown (and reconstruction) of the entire United States *public-facing* money supply, from M0, to M1, to M2, and now M3.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
Feb 21, 202332:12

#28 Decoding M3: Eurodollars
#28 Decoding M3: Eurodollars
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the twenty-eighth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:58 Money supply "stack"
02:38 What is a Eurodollar?
05:50 How did the Federal Reserve count Eurodollars?
08:35 Eurodollars (Fed discontinued)
10:56 Eurodollars (Porkopolis)
20:30 Argentina's stack of Eurodollars
24:30 Measuring Eurodollars: Much work to do!
26:10 Stablecoins
29:03 M3 non-M2 Total
Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M3 money stock. Note that M2 is included in the M3 money supply; however, in this video we cover only the non-M2 monetary components. Specifically in this video, we are covering Eurodollars. This is the last video looking at the non-M2 portion of M3 money. It is a challenge to reconstruct this data, since the Fed stopped publishing this money supply in February 2006.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.