By The John Quincy Adams Society
Security Dilemma is a podcast of the John Quincy Adams Society, an independent nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing a new generation of foreign policy leaders.
Security DilemmaSep 05, 2023
Dan Grazier on Planes, Tanks and Air-Ground Task Forces
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss weapons systems in the air, sea and land with former Marine Dan Grazier. Dan is a Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project on Government Oversight where he analyzes defense procurement, and our conversation covers naval shipbuilding, next generation air dominance, Marine Corps combined arms doctrine and more!
Eric Gomez on Taiwan's Urgent Need For Asymmetric Defense
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss Taiwanese security and America's role in the Taiwan Strait with Eric Gomez. Eric Gomez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, with an expertise on a range of defense issues including the U.S. military budget, force posture, arms control, and nuclear stability in East Asia. Eric is joining us today because he has a new piece with the Cato Institute out as of today called Taiwan’s Urgent Need for Asymmetric Defense.
Check out his new paper and this accompanying conversation!
John Quincy Adams and Slavery with Jeffrey A. Denman
This week on Security Dilemma, we're taking an episode to explore the history of the namesake for The John Quincy Adams Society with a historian who has a new book out on the subject. John Allen Gay has a conversation with Jeffrey A. Denman about his new book - John Quincy Adams, Reluctant Abolitionist.
The words of John Quincy Adams have inspired foreign policy thinkers for generations, and they continue to inspire today.
Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will [America’s] heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." - John Quincy Adams, 1821
But how did the sixth president, one of the most vocal American antebellum political figures opposing both slavery and foreign intervention abroad, actually think about slavery? We explore that question today.
You can order the book here.
Doug Bandow on Reagan, Religion and the ROK
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. As a young lawyer, he worked as a Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan. Doug Bandow began working with the Cato Institute in 1982 and he is a Senior Fellow there today. He is widely published; he’s written at least three books focused on the Korean Peninsula and today he has a weekly column at The American Conservative.
Our conversation today covers South Korean politics, East Asia's balance of power, the future of America's role in Europe, the foreign policy legacy of Ronald Reagan and the pursuit of religious liberty in policymaking.
Brian Finucane on Law and War from Gaza to Guadalajara
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest host Scott McCann interview Dr. Brian Finucane, a Senior Adviser at International Crisis Group and a former Legal Adviser for the State Department.
This episode was recorded on October 19th, 2023 and discusses war powers as they affect the Gaza conflict, intervention in Mexico and strategic ambiguity in Taiwan. We also address specifics like the Geneva convention's Protocol 1, the 127 echo program, foreign policy's "supreme court" and more!
Elizabeth Beavers on Advocacy and AUMFS
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Elizabeth Beavers, a Vice President at the Quincy Institute, an experienced advocate for progressive foreign policy reform and an expert on national security law.
In this conversation, we cover the legacy of Sen. Feinstein, legal justifications for proxy wars, American strategy in North Korea, Congress's role in foreign policy and the threat of the climate crisis.
Daniel DePetris on Forever Wars from Mexico to Somalia
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
In this conversation, we cover the prospect of intervening in Mexico, tensions between India and Canada, America's role in Somalia and the Abraham Accords.
Jordan Cohen on Arms Sales and Alliance Politics
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Jordan Cohen, an expert on arms sales policy at the Cato Institute. In this conversation we cover cluster munitions in Ukraine, the policy mechanisms of aid to Taiwan and alliance politics with arms sales in the Middle East.
Dr. Cohen's War on the Rocks article
Dr. Cohen on aid to Taiwan
Dr. Cohen on tracking U.S. weapons
Matthew Petti on Middle East Spaghetti Logic
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Matthew Petti, a young independent journalist covering the Middle East. In this conversation we cover the origins of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, America's ongoing presence and path out of Syria, the context of the Iranian hostage exchange and the "spaghetti logic" of Henry Kissinger's realism.
Matthew Petti's Substack
Matthew's essay on Kissinger and Realism
Alex Thurston on West African Security & Stability
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Alexander Thurston, an expert on conflicts, jihadism and stability in West Africa. Dr. Alex Thurston is a professor at the University of Cincinnati and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute. This conversation covers sources of instability ranging from the French presence to the American intervention in Libya along with a conversation about the politics of the region, ranging from Niger's path to dictatorship, Nigeria's new leadership and the comparatively stable situations in Senegal and Chad.
Stephen Wertheim on Progressives and the National Interest
This week, Patrick C. Fox and co-host John Allen Gay interview Dr. Stephen Wertheim, a diplomatic historian and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr. Wertheim is a leading voice on foreign policy for the left, with essays in the New York Times and Foreign Affairs and appearances on programs including CNN and NPR. Our conversation covers the left's relationship with realism, Dr. Wertheim's research on America's changing perception of their role in the world and progressive interpretations of the rise of great power competition and BRICS.
Paul Heer on China's Ambitions and George Kennan's Legacy
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest co-host A.J. Manuzzi interview Dr. Paul Heer, a decorated former intelligence official and National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015. Now a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Dr. Heer's book Mr. X and the Pacific was just released in paperback. Our conversation covers how China and Xi Jinping think, the foreign policy legacy of George F. Kennan and the role that the intelligence community should play in foreign policy.
Elizabeth Shackelford on Diplomacy and Africa
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest co-host A.J. Manuzzi interview Elizabeth Shackelford, a Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Our conversation covers the practice of diplomacy in U.S. foreign policy, conflict in Somalia, the coup in Niger and tensions in Southern Africa.
Dan Caldwell on the GOP Primary's Foreign Policy
For a bonus episode, Security Dilemma interviewed Dan Caldwell, a VP at the Center for Renewing America and a conservative veteran foreign policy advocate. We recorded this episode on August 24th, the morning after the first GOP primary debate. Our conversation covers the foreign policy of a second Trump administration, conservative rhetoric about Europe and the southern border, the foreign policy legacy of Ronald Reagan and engagement with China.
David Kang on China and the Asian Peace
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed Dr. David Kang, a professor at the University of Southern California. Our conversation covers the application of realism to the Asian peace, China's current and future role in the world, tensions on the Korean Peninsula, what the Philippines teaches us about alliances, India's position in Asia and soccer diplomacy.
Sumantra Maitra on Realism and Conservative Foreign Policy
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed Dr. Sumantra Maitra of The American Conservative and the Center for Renewing America. Our conversation covers the European tradition of realism, a conservative realist approach to competition with China and a critical perspective on India.
Dr. Maitra on pivoting from Europe - https://americarenewing.com/issues/policy-brief-pivoting-the-us-away-from-europe-to-a-dormant-nato/
Dr. Maitra on India - https://www.theamericanconservative.com/indias-majoritarian-turn/
Emma Ashford on Petrostates and Foreign Policy Debates
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed the Stimson Center's Dr. Emma Ashford, a key advocate for realism and restraint in U.S. foreign policy. Emma spoke about energy politics, grand strategy and advice for future foreign policy practitioners.
Justin Logan on China, Cartels and Chilean Wine
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed the the Cato Institute's director of defense and foreign policy studies - Justin Logan. Justin is a highly regarded voice in the foreign policy thinktank space, and he offered his analysis on China policy, NATO expansion and fentanyl.
Van Jackson on China and Dissident Thinking
Join dissident foreign policy academic Dr. Van Jackson for a conversation about the Indo-Pacific, nuclear policy and progressive foreign policy. Dr. Jackson is a Senior Lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, the host of the Un-Diplomatic Podcast and the author of Pacific Power Paradox.
Jason Beardsley on Special Operations and Restraint
Jason Beardsley, a former U.S. military veteran and Director of Veterans Affairs at Stand Together, shares his insights on a range of national security issues. Beardsley's diverse background and experiences in the military provide a unique perspective on the challenges and complexities facing the United States in the realm of national security. The non-conventional footprint of SOF provides advantages in certain situations, but it is crucial to ensure that their use is nested under regional or higher-level commanders and connected to the grand strategy of the United States. Strategic alignment and clear objectives are key to maximizing the effectiveness of special operations while avoiding the perception that they are a substitute for broader strategic planning.
Stephen Walt on Alliances, Restraint and The Blob
Join legendary foreign policy academic Dr. Stephen Walt in a tour of modern national security issues. Dr. Walt is a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School, a columnist at Foreign Policy, and the author of The Origin of Alliances, The Hell of Good Intentions, and many more books.
A Marine on How His Service Changed His Worldview
Lyle Jeremy Rubin deployed to Afghanistan in 2010 as a committed neoconservative. His experience serving there brought him face to face with the realities of war and empire. His book Pain is Weakness Leaving the Body: A Marine's Unbecoming tells the story of how he changed and came to support restraint in U.S. foreign policy. The Society's Patrick C. Fox interviews Rubin.
Foreign Policy Restraint After Ukraine
The Russian assault on Ukraine has created a surge of support for liberal interventionism in the West, prompting one of that current's most prominent exponents to suggest that a brief moment of foreign policy restraint was at an end. Not so, countered Yale historian Michael Brenes: "Restrainers are a more visible, organized bloc that at any time in recent memory." In fact, he argued, the war showed the urgency of developing a positive vision for U.S. strategic restraint - not merely opposing the errors of the hawks, but advancing alternative visions of global order.
Ukraine in 2023 (with Christopher Chivvis)
What does 2023 hold for the war in Ukraine? Does Russia have the will and ability to slog on another year? Can Ukraine regain its lost territory? Will Western states remain relatively unified on providing aid? Is peace possible? We spoke with Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former National Intelligence Officer for Europe.
Iran's Nuclear Program, Present and Future
While all eyes are on Iran's protests, the country has advanced closer than ever to a nuclear weapon. Safeguards on the program are weak in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Where do things stand, and where are they going? We hear from Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, where she focuses on the nuclear and missile programs in Iran, North Korea, India, and Pakistan and on international efforts to prevent proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
America's Middle East "Dream Palace": Producing Middle East Expertise
How does the government get advice on policy in the Middle East? It's changed over time. America took a much larger role in the region after World War II, and needed more regional experts than it had. The government began funding area studies programs in academia. Yet it didn't like the advice it was getting from universities - and after the campus chaos of the 1960s, the academy wasn't so excited either. Thus, think tanks, often closely tied to the government, stepped in, providing analysis that closely aligned with U.S. goals and priorities and ultimately reifying a Middle East in need of U.S. leadership.
We spoke with Osamah Khalil, a professor at Syracuse and author of America's Dream Palace: Middle East Expertise and the Rise of the National Security State. You can find the book here and an article by Dr. Khalil on the origins of the idea of a "Middle East" region here.
John Quincy Adams and American Foreign Policy
What ideas animated the early United States' most important diplomat? David Hendrickson, president of the John Quincy Adams Society, discusses major themes in Adams' life, thought, and character and how these informed his approach to international affairs.
Hendrickson is the author of the new book Freedom, Independence, Peace: John Quincy Adams and American Foreign Policy. It is available as a digital edition at no cost or in print from Barnes and Noble for $9.99. Find it here: https://jqas.org/freedom-independence-peace/
The Russia-Ukraine Lobbying War
Washington has been a quiet battleground between Moscow and Kyiv. 2021 saw some of K Street's top lobbying firms duking it out over issues like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, sanctions, and Ukrainian NATO membership. Think tanks got in on the fight too. The Russian invasion of Ukraine then shifted the terrain, with new sanctions blocking Russian lobbying and new lobbyists entering the fray for Ukraine.
Ben Freeman, an expert on foreign influence at the Quincy Institute and author of The Foreign Policy Auction, dug into the lucrative business of foreign influence in the United States, the transparency laws that govern it, and the high-stakes struggle between two enemies to shape U.S. policy.
The internship opening on Freeman's team is here: https://jobs.lever.co/quincyinst/45691bb5-3ff0-412a-8083-57826f528ae1
Apply Strong to Foreign Policy Jobs
Resumes, cover letters, and job interviews are the tools you use to get hired in the world of international affairs. But how do you use those tools well? Learn key principles, themes, and techniques that can make you stand out from other job applicants and land an exciting job in foreign policy.
For federal resume tips, check out this previous episode of the podcast: https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/iAR9qvjS2tb
Measuring U.S. Interventionism
Many people have an instinctive sense that American foreign policy has come to rely too much on military action. Now, there's data. Professors Sidita Kushi and Monica Toft of the Military Intervention Project have produced a massive new dataset of nearly 400 cases of the threat, display, or use of force by the United States abroad. We talk about the patterns of intervention, including an acceleration with the end of the Cold War and the emergence of unipolarity. We also dig into the challenges of measuring intervention.
You can read their article launching the dataset and presenting initial findings here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00220027221117546
You can see the supplemental data here: https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Supplemental_Material_-_Introducing_the_Military_Intervention_Project_A_New_Dataset_on_US_Military_Interventions_1776_2019/20464279?backTo=/collections/Introducing_the_Military_Intervention_Project_A_New_Dataset_on_US_Military_Interventions_1776_2019/6140734
You can learn more about the Military Intervention Project here: https://sites.tufts.edu/css/
Launching a Career in the Progressive Space
How can aspiring progressive foreign policy professionals start their careers? How can they break into roles working for Congress on Capitol Hill? Join us as we hear from Becca Watts, whose work on the Progressive Talent Pipeline helps shepherd young progressives, especially those from underrepresented backgrounds, into opportunities that let them make an impact. The Progressive Talent Pipeline, which selects, trains, and endorses candidates for roles with members of Congress, is accepting applications until Sept. 11, 2022. Learn more and apply here: https://progressivetalentpipeline.org/
A-10 vs. F-35: Case Studies in Bad Defense Policy
Washington loves the F-35 and hates the A-10. Why? Join us as we dig up a struggle that has roots in the earliest days of air power and turns on fundamental questions: what is an air force for? How should we purchase, assess, and retire aircraft? What are the politics behind these decisions? Join us as we hear from Dan Grazier, Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project on Government Oversight and a veteran of the United States Marine Corps, on these two jets.
You can read more of Dan's work here: https://www.pogo.org/about/people/dan-grazier
FM 100-20 (July 1943) is here: https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref/FM/FM100-20/index.html
The Key West Agreement (1948) is here: https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p4013coll11/id/729/
The F-35 economic impact page is here. https://www.f35.com/f35/about/economic-impact.html
Taiwan and U.S.-China Relations
Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan got a furious reaction from China, which held major military exercises around the island and fired ballistic missiles. These incidents highlighted a broader trend: China's military is growing in power, while the United States has been engaging more and more openly with Taiwan. Is the status quo falling apart? Are Washington and Beijing on the road to war? Can Taiwan defend itself? We spoke to Michael Swaine of the Quincy Institute about these critical questions. Swaine is among the authors of Active Denial, a recent study of U.S. defense posture in Asia. https://quincyinst.org/report/active-denial-a-roadmap-to-a-more-effective-stabilizing-and-sustainable-u-s-defense-strategy-in-asia/
Finland and Sweden's NATO Quest
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden made a dramatic shift in their security policies, seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and turning away from decades of neutrality (indeed, centuries in Sweden's case). Barring further Turkish objections, their membership appears likely to go through. Does this serve U.S. interests? We spoke with Sumantra Maitra of the Center for the National Interest and the Royal Historical Society. Dr. Maitra is author of a forthcoming article on this subject for Law and Liberty and the below report at the Center for Renewing America: https://americarenewing.com/issues/nato-expansion-for-finland-and-sweden-a-dangerous-and-unnecessary-distraction-from-us-interests/
The Liberal International Order (w/ Stephen Wertheim)
We hear a lot about something called "the liberal international order." The frequent use of the term, however, is relatively recent - and the phrase itself often obscures as much as it reveals. This recording from our 2022 summer conference in Washington captures a conversation with Stephen Wertheim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and its American Statecraft Program.
How does the world see America today?
The Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF) came out in June with their annual survey of international perceptions of American democracy. As the Biden administration works to restore the credibility of the United States on the world stage, we found favorable views of both the United States and American democracy are at a four-year high. The report also found favorable views of President Biden’s foreign policy decisions, including Ukraine and Afghanistan. At the same time, views of American democracy from respondents in China are at a four-year low. The report is based on nearly 5,000 survey takers in nine politically and geographically diverse countries. Respondents were asked detailed questions about the United States, its democracy, and its global influence. EGF shared its most notable findings with JQAS and discussed possible implications for US foreign policy going forward. EGF researchers Zuri Linetsky, Caroline Gray, and Lucas Robinson spoke with us.
You can find the full poll here. https://egfound.org/2022/06/modeling-democracy-democracys-promise/
You can find more information about our Marcellus Policy Fellowship, mentioned at the end as a great way to develop your foreign policy writing skills, here. Applications are currently open for the fall cohort. https://jqas.org/the-marcellus-policy-fellowship/
Assessing Biden's Middle East Policy
President Joe Biden has made several big moves in his foreign policy toward the Middle East so far - among them a planned trip to meet with Saudi Arabia's controversial leader Mohammad bin Salman, a willingness to allow the Iran nuclear talks to lie fallow, and a cut to military aid to Egypt. This happens as several regional states want the United States to remain committed to the region and even to increase military presence there. How is everything going, and how does this fit into broader trends in U.S. grand strategy and Middle Eastern politics?
Our guest Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington, DC. He is a specialist on regimes and governance in the Middle East, especially in Arab monarchies like Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco. His research engages topics of authoritarian politics, democratic reforms, institutional stability, and economic development in these countries, as well as their implications for US foreign policy. His publications include the books From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East (Columbia University Press, 2016), as well as The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (Oxford University Press, 2022); articles in print journals like Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of International Relations, Studies in Comparative International Development, and Journal of Democracy; and contributions in online venues like Foreign Affairs, Middle East Eye, and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage. He also advises country-level work with international NGOs, law firms, and sovereign clients. Education: A.B., Brown University (2003); PhD., Harvard University (2009).
Iran in Crisis, at Home and Abroad
Iran faces growing problems at home and abroad. At home, a building collapse added fuel to the fire of protests that had started over rising food prices. Abroad, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors has just condemned the regime’s lack of compliance with nuclear safeguards measures. Nuclear negotiations are frozen. Sanctions remain on. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated the Ebrahim Raisi administration’s efforts to reorient foreign policy away from the West.
Negar Mortazavi is an Iranian American journalist and political analyst based in Washington DC, who has been covering Iranian affairs and US-Iran relations for over a decade. She is host of The Iran Podcast. Her previous work includes serving as a columnist and diplomatic correspondent at The Independent, a host on Voice of America and as Washington Correspondent for Iran International.
Former CIA Russia analysis director on the rocky road to peace in Ukraine
Ukraine won the battle for Kyiv and pushed the Russians back from Kharkiv. But that doesn't mean the war is over - indeed, it seems likely to continue for the long haul, while there may be dangers of Russian escalation in spite of Russia's weak position. We spoke with George Beebe, former head of Russia analysis at the Central Intelligence Agency and current Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute, about what lies ahead. His 2019 book is The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe.
Truth and Reconciliation in Ukraine
What does it mean to be Ukrainian? Struggles within Ukraine about the answer to that question create an opening for other states to intervene, argues our guest, with some (primarily in Ukraine's north and west) favoring a more ethnic nationalism and others (primarily in Ukraine's east and south) favoring a more civic nationalism. In World War I, World War II, and the present day, outside powers have backed one vision or another to advance their interests. Only a process of truth and reconciliation - of catharsis leading to understanding - can heal Ukraine.
Nicolai N. Petro is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. He was a U.S. Fulbright Scholar in Ukraine 2013-2014 and the author of the forthcoming book The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution.
The Yale Journal of International Affairs article Dr. Petro references is "The Gospel According to Poroshenko: Politics, Religion, and the New Church of Ukraine," available at https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/the-gospel-according-to-poroshenko-politics-religion-and-the-new-church-of-ukraine
The next event we have on Ukraine is with George Beebe - on dangers of escalation and paths to peace. Learn more and register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/4716529676857/WN_aIiw1IiySneDWzfFfKmXqQ
Putin's Road to Ukraine
How did Putin become Putin? Amb. John Evans met the future Russian leader when he was just a deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. Evans, then serving as U.S. consul general, shares his recollections of the young Putin, situates this in the broader Russian political situation in the 1990s and the evolution of U.S.-Russian relations from the optimism of the period to today's bitterness. We also speak about Russia's move into Ukraine - how it came to this and where it may go.
Our guest offers a minor correction to his remarks: "It was Chip Bohlen who got the scoop on the Hitler-Stalin pact from his German colleague in Moscow. [Not George Kennan.] Bohlen tells the story in Chapter Five of his 'Witness to History.'"
Change Coming in Korea
Change is in the air in the Koreas.
In the South, incoming president Yoon Suk-yeol takes over from Moon Jae-in, potentially yielding shifts away from diplomacy with Pyongyang and toward closer relations with Washington and Tokyo.
In the North, a recent ICBM test stoked concerns about nuclear risks as many diplomatic mechanisms are on ice. And both Koreas face a diplomatic test as the Russian invasion of Ukraine creates new friction in global politics and economics.
Our guest, John Delury, is Professor of Chinese Studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies and Underwood International College in Seoul, South Korea. He is author of Agents of Subversion: The Fate of John T. Downey and the CIA's Covert War in China (Cornell, 2022) and is co-authoring a book on the political history of North Korea and the keys to the longevity and resilience of Kim family rule. His PhD is from Yale.
Uncle Sucker: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burden-Sharing Fail
U.S. leaders have complained for decades that allies aren't pulling their weight. Countries like Germany have become infamous for underinvesting in their own defense, effectively shifting their defense burdens onto American soldiers and taxpayers. Occasional commitments by allies to do better have often gone unmet, and the most likely path to wide European compliance with NATO's shared 2% of GDP spending target is through reactions to Russian actions, not American goading. Why have so many U.S. leaders failed to induce significant burden sharing?
Justin Logan is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international relations theory, and American foreign policy. His current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in Asia—specifically with regard to China—and the limited relevance of the Middle East to U.S. national security.
He has authored numerous policy studies and articles on topics including international relations theory, U.S.-China policy, U.S.-Russia policy, stabilization and reconstruction operations, and the policy approaches to a nuclear Iran. His articles have appeared in International Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Harvard International Review, Orbis, the Foreign Service Journal, National Review, Politico Magazine, and the American Prospect, among others.
Logan holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University.
Upcoming: Korean Peninsula Update - Register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/6616488620621/WN_cd7p1xAyTZen01hCVb0-PA
Understanding Nuclear Command and Control
How do different countries choose who gets to decide when nuclear weapons are used, how that decision is made, and how that decision can be brought into effect? What factors lead them to choose different strategies for closely controlling - or not - their nuclear arsenals? How does all this impact U.S. security - and how do U.S. policies shape other actors' choices? Learn all this and more in a special conversation with a leading expert on the subject, Dr. David Arceneaux.
David Arceneaux is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs. He earned a Ph.D. in political science from Syracuse University in 2019. He also holds a master's degree in political science from Syracuse University, as well as a master's degree in international affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
Dr. Arceneaux was previously a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, affiliated with the International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom. He was also a predoctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the MIT Security Studies Program and a Carnegie International Politics Scholars Consortium and Network (IPSCON) predoctoral fellow at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), affiliated with the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs.
Dr. Arceneaux studies several topics related to international security, with a focus on nuclear weapons strategy and operations. His book project builds upon archival and original interview data with political and military elites to explain variation in regional nuclear power command and control systems. He also has ongoing research projects on nuclear platform diversification and North Korean nuclear operations.
China - Russia Relations After Ukraine
The global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put China in a complicated position, and there have been some signs of frustration in Beijing. The global economic disruptions wrought by war and sanctions are no good for the PRC. At the same time, an isolated Russia may present opportunities for China. And stepping back from today's crisis to the broader sweep of history, the Sino-Russian relationship may be emerging as the pole of an alternative non-Western sphere. What does all this mean? Join us as we hear from Lyle Goldstein, an expert on both Russia and China who is writing a book on the two states' relationship.
Lyle J. Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. Formerly, he served as Research Professor at U.S. Naval War College for 20 years. In that post, he was awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for founding and leading the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). His main areas of expertise include both maritime security and nuclear security issues. Major focus areas have also recently included the Arctic, as well as the Korean Peninsula. He has published seven books on Chinese strategy, including Meeting China Halfway (Georgetown UP, 2015). He speaks both Chinese and Russian and is currently writing a book on China-Russia relations. He has a PhD from Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a BA from Harvard.
Military Effectiveness in Ukraine and Beyond
What motivates a military to continue fighting even when their situation looks grim? Are certain types of militaries more effective at achieving their goals than others? Ukraine appears to have fought better than Russia expected, while even experts on Russian forces have been surprised by the shortcomings its military has displayed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What can the current situation tell us about prospects for military cohesion as the conflict continues?
Jasen J. Castillo is an Associate Professor and the Evelyn and Ed F. Kruse '49 Faculty Fellow in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. He is the Co-Director of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy. Prior to joining the Bush School, Dr. Castillo worked in the Department of Defense's Strategy and Plans Office. Before working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, he was an analyst at the RAND Corporation, where his research focused on military strategy, nuclear deterrence, and WMD terrorism. Prior to RAND, he was a consultant for the Institute for Defense Analyses. Dr. Castillo earned his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago, where he received research support from the National Science Foundation and the Smith Richardson Foundation. His research interests include U.S. defense policy, military history, and nuclear deterrence. His publications include Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2014); “Loyalty, Hedging, or Exit: How Weaker Alliance Partners Respond to the Rise of New Threats,” Journal of Strategic Studies, forthcoming; “Don’t Leave Grand Strategy to the Generals,” The National Interest, October 2019; “Passing the Torch: Criteria for Implementing a Grand Strategy of Offshore Balancing,” in New Voices in Grand Strategy (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019); Understanding Russian Nuclear Strategy and Assessing Escalation in Conventional Conflicts, PR-3039-OSD (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t, PR-3191-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); Will to Fight: Defining, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Tactical and Operational Military Units, PR-3149-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017).
The Psychology of Stickiness: What the U.S. Can Learn from its Annexation of the Philippines in 1898
Why is it so hard to let go? It is an enduring puzzle of U.S. foreign relations. It is hardly original to point out the sprawling collection of U.S. military installations and personnel abroad, but why is it so hard to reduce that military footprint, especially when so many presidents come into power wanting to do so? Today, I'd like to discuss U.S. President William McKinley's annexation of the Philippines in 1898 which sheds light on one important cause of "stickiness": a common psychological bias called the Endowment Effect. In exploring this concept, it enriches our understanding of why it can be so hard to let go.
Aroop Mukharji is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He received his PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University, where he studied American foreign policy and presidential decision-making in the William McKinley (1897-1901) and Teddy Roosevelt (1901-1909) administrations. He has hosted several podcasts, including Snack Break, the Belfer Center's foreign policy podcast at the Harvard Kennedy School (called Office Hours), and another podcast for the NGO Sense and Sustainability. He published a book on education and diplomacy in 2016 with Palgrave Macmillan, and has published foreign policy opinion pieces in War on the Rocks, The Atlantic, The Washington Post, The Yale Journal of International Affairs, and The New Republic. His academic research has been published by Negotiation Journal and The Journal of Applied History.
The Ukraine Crisis (w/ Emma Ashford)
The world is watching the situation in Ukraine with bated breath. As of this recording, Russia has not invaded, but claims of a drawdown appear to be false. We spoke with Emma Ashford about what’s going on, how we got to this point, and possible ways to resolve the situation. We also dig into the views of other powers like China and Germany and the role that economic factors play in the dispute.
Emma Ashford is a resident senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. She has a biweekly column for Foreign Policy and is a regular contributor to Inkstick. Her PhD is from the University of Virginia.
· China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A
· The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ
Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/
Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/
Summer Programs https://jqas.org/2022-summer-programs/
Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing?
U.S. defense policy increasingly reflects the view that U.S. threats to defend its Asian allies, and Taiwan, are becoming less credible as Chinese power rises. This view is wrong. Geography and technological trends mean defenders have the advantage - whether the power playing defense is China or its would-be rivals. While the Chinese threat to Taiwan remains worrisome, Asia's defensive advantages are good news for the U.S. as a supporter of the Asian status quo.
One minor note: the major European city that is as close to Taipei as Sydney is is MOSCOW, not London.
Benjamin H. Friedman is policy director at Defense Priorities and a PhD candidate in political science at the MIT. He previously worked as a Defense Analyst at the Cato Institute and a Researcher at the Center for Defense Information. He's edited three books on defense policy and strategy and has published in a number of academic journals and major publications.
• The Ukraine Crisis (w/ Emma Ashford) Weds 2/16, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3516437348068/WN_3blHwmwFSAynCEwVfEpXxA
• China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A
• The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ
Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/
Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/
Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing
A twenty-year campaign in Afghanistan that ended in disaster. An intervention in Libya that helped cast the country into a decade-long civil war. An invasion of Iraq that led to chaos and removed a check on Iran. A war on terror that seems to have created more terrorists. NATO expansion in Europe that cemented Russian enmity. Why does U.S. foreign policy have such a poor record lately? And how has all of this impacted civil-military relations?
Join us and the Columbia Political Union for a conversation with Andrew Bacevich, president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a historian of U.S. foreign and defense policy.