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Steady Wealth Podcast

Steady Wealth Podcast

By Serge Berger

Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the market can be a complicated place. Your host, Serge Berger, has 20+ years of experience in the market, and is currently the head trader and investment strategist at www.thesteadytrader.com. Through this podcast, you’ll get great insights from guest speakers from around the market. Together, we’ll focus on the big picture, and what truly makes the market tick. During this critical juncture in the market, you’ll want to have the cutting edge that the Steady Wealth Podcast will give you.
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Have We Seen The 2023 Stock Market Highs?

Steady Wealth Podcast Sep 24, 2023

00:00
31:07
Have We Seen The 2023 Stock Market Highs?

Have We Seen The 2023 Stock Market Highs?

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, hosts Serge Berger and Brian discuss the current state of the market and potential outcomes for the fourth quarter.

With economic data showing a mix of pessimism and cautious optimism, they anticipate a sideways drift for equities with some volatility.

The conversation delves into factors influencing the market, including interest rates and their impact on stock prices. Bond yields, especially the 10-year, are at historical highs, causing concern.

Brian shares his perspective on potential interest rate movements and their effects on the economy and stocks.

They also touch on the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where a hawkish stance was adopted, affecting market sentiment.

Serge and Brian discuss the correlation between interest rates and equity performance, highlighting the potential headwinds higher rates pose for the stock market.

Looking at shorter-term projections, they anticipate fluctuating markets, potentially influenced by economic data and central bank actions.

They note the possibility of a bullish rally if exceptionally positive economic news is released.

However, overall, they expect a flat trajectory for equities in the coming months.

Amidst all the financial discussions, the hosts share a lighthearted moment discussing airline experiences and turbulence analogies to market conditions.

The episode provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of economic indicators and investor psychology, guiding listeners through the potential market landscape in the near future.

Sep 24, 202331:07
Why the 6040 Portfolio is Back!

Why the 6040 Portfolio is Back!

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.
In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger delves into the much-discussed topic of whether the traditional 60-40 investment portfolio is still effective.

The 60-40 portfolio traditionally allocates 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, aiming to balance risk and returns.

Serge explores how people have been quick to label this approach as obsolete, emphasizing the recent shift in bond yields and its impact on the portfolio's performance.

He discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the 60-40 strategy, highlighting the importance of considering an individual's financial goals, risk tolerance, and age when determining the appropriate portfolio mix.

Furthermore, Serge proposes potential modifications to enhance the 60-40 portfolio, including diversification through commodities and a more dynamic approach to asset allocation.

He advocates for staying informed and adaptable in managing investments to navigate changing financial landscapes effectively.

For more insights and personalized advice, Serge suggests engaging with investment advisors and leveraging research resources.

Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of the 60-40 portfolio's relevance and how to optimize it for today's market conditions.

Sep 18, 202323:02
The Case For Energy Stocks

The Case For Energy Stocks

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.


Serge touches on various facets, from inflation and diversification strategies to the evolving demand for energy.

Serge emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment portfolio, debunking the myth of chasing the latest investment trends. Instead, he advocates for a well-rounded approach, explaining why energy stocks should be on investors' radars.

Drawing on data and charts, Serge illustrates the recent performance of energy stocks, showing their impressive resilience in the face of inflation and market fluctuations. He discusses how energy stocks have emerged as a reliable hedge, outperforming bonds and even rivaling other sectors.

Serge delves into the dynamics of the energy sector, highlighting the increasing demand for energy resources worldwide. He explores factors like population growth and rising living standards, which continue to drive the need for energy, making it a promising long-term investment.

Additionally, Serge presents a nuanced perspective on inflation and deflation, acknowledging the ongoing debate. He discusses how shifting spending patterns among baby boomers could impact the overall inflation landscape and its implications for energy stocks.

In conclusion, Serge Berger provides insightful analysis and recommends an overweight allocation to energy stocks, positioning them as a viable hedge against inflation. Tune in to this episode for a comprehensive understanding of the energy sector's significance in today's ever-evolving financial markets.

Sep 11, 202320:46
Surprise September Stock Market Rally!?

Surprise September Stock Market Rally!?

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.

As we transition from the summer months into the more intriguing part of the market, September through December, Serge takes a deep dive into the seasonality and historical data surrounding the US equity market in September.

While September is often seen as a weak month statistically, Serge discusses the complexity of relying solely on seasonality as a predictive factor and explores the dynamics of market sentiment.

He also highlights the impact of algorithmic trading and economic data on market behavior.

Tune in to gain valuable insights into potential market trends for the month and how to approach your portfolio during this transitional period.


Sep 04, 202320:47
The Psychology of Market Timing

The Psychology of Market Timing

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, the focus is on the psychology of market timing—a crucial aspect for successful trading and investing. Berger begins by discussing the challenge of making tactical moves in the market and emphasizes the need to understand market psychology.

He delves into how fear and greed impact decisions, leading investors to buy and sell at unfavorable moments.

With his signature insights, Berger highlights the difficulties of market timing, using charts to show that both self-directed and professional investors often struggle to outperform indices.

He advocates for diversification and advises listeners to approach market timing with caution, keeping emotions and arbitrary stops in check.

The episode ends with a reminder that human psychology plays a significant role in trading and investing decisions.

Aug 28, 202320:21
Avoiding Trading Disasters - Top Three Mistakes Every Trader Must Dodge!

Avoiding Trading Disasters - Top Three Mistakes Every Trader Must Dodge!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, he delves into the top three trading mistakes that traders commonly make.

Drawing from his experience, Berger discusses how many traders treat their investment accounts like trading accounts, exposing themselves to undue risk. He emphasizes the importance of separating investment and trading capital to maintain financial stability.

Berger then explores the impact of emotions on trading decisions. Impatience, premature exits, and not allowing trades to mature are all emotional pitfalls traders fall into.

He suggests adhering to stop losses and employing time stops to manage risk effectively.

The episode also emphasizes the significance of taking trading seriously.

Berger warns against trading with excessive funds and provides insights into diversification strategies that can help investors navigate market cycles more effectively.

Overall, the episode offers actionable insights to help traders avoid common pitfalls and enhance their trading strategies.


Aug 21, 202325:14
Guarding Your Financial Future!

Guarding Your Financial Future!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

n the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by the experienced trader and investment strategist Serge Berger, listeners gain valuable insights on becoming better, more successful, and open-minded traders and investors.

As August brings a shift in market dynamics, Serge highlights the importance of diversification in portfolios.

With the help of research, guest interviews, and real-time market analysis, this episode navigates the critical juncture where knowledge translates to power.

Serge emphasizes the role of diversification in mitigating volatility, offering investors a higher probability of steadier returns over time.

Dive into this enlightening discussion to enhance your financial journey.

Aug 14, 202322:29
Can You Stomach A 20% Portfolio Drop?

Can You Stomach A 20% Portfolio Drop?

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In this episode, Serge delves into an essential topic:

Can you stomach a 20% portfolio drop?

As the host of the podcast, Serge is also the principal of Blue Marlin Advisors, an investment advisory firm.

Throughout the episode, Serge takes a research-based approach to discuss market volatility and its impact on investors.

He begins by emphasizing the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance and how it can affect investment decisions.

Serge offers valuable insights into the current market conditions, highlighting the significant rise in US equity markets while cautioning about the potential underperformance of the bond market.

He further discusses investor complacency, indicating how periods of strong market performance can lead to overly confident attitudes among investors.

Serge shares his experience with clients who exhibit excessive confidence but may not fully comprehend how they would react during market drawdowns.

To illustrate the concept of volatility and risk, Serge walks the audience through several charts and examples, making the information accessible even to those who may only be listening to the podcast without visual aid.

The episode also covers the importance of determining one's risk appetite, especially during retirement.

Serge explains that as investors get closer to retirement, their risk tolerance typically decreases, and it is essential for investors to be aware of this shift to avoid panicking during normal market fluctuations.

The podcast continues with a hypothetical portfolio example, where Serge explains how to gauge and measure risk tolerance by using a diversified 60-40 portfolio allocation.

He emphasizes the significance of understanding both the percentage and dollar amounts involved to make informed decisions.

Towards the end, Serge encourages listeners to take a free risk assessment offered by Blue Marlin Advisors.

He highlights that this exercise is crucial for both long-term investors and traders, as knowing one's risk tolerance can help avoid irrational decision-making during volatile market conditions.

The episode concludes with a reminder to continuously assess and adapt one's risk tolerance as it may change over time, particularly during different life stages like retirement.

Overall, The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger provides a thought-provoking analysis of market volatility, risk tolerance, and the importance of making informed investment decisions.

By combining research and real-life examples, Serge empowers his audience to navigate the markets with greater confidence and prudence.

Aug 07, 202320:44
Juicy Bond ETFs with Yield!

Juicy Bond ETFs with Yield!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.


In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, he discusses the allure of juicy bond ETFs for generating high yields.

Amidst anecdotes about his recent roller coaster ride at a theme park in Orlando, Florida, Serge emphasizes the importance of considering risk both in thrill-seeking adventures and in investment portfolios.

He delves into the significance of diversification and highlights specific bond ETFs worth considering, such as TLT (longer end of the yield curve), SHY/SHV (shorter end), AGG (covering the entire bond market), and JPST (ultra-short income ETF with monthly payouts).

Serge advocates for thoughtful portfolio allocation and risk management in turbulent markets.


Jul 31, 202322:41
Everyone is Bullish Again!

Everyone is Bullish Again!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger.

Are you ready to become a better, more successful, and open-minded trader and investor?

I'm Serge Berger, head trader and investment strategist at thestudytrader.com, and I'm here to help you reach your goals.

Whether you're new to investing or a seasoned pro, this podcast will guide you through the noise and help you focus on the big picture.

We'll share research, guest interviews, and real-time market analysis.

Today, we have a special guest, Brian Terry, who's been working with me for several years.

We run the steady trader, a credit spread authority, and an option service.

We recently launched a covered call service and have a fiduciary advisory firm called Blue Marlin Advisors. As we navigate the market's critical juncture, we'll address the prevailing bullish sentiment. The markets have seen a steep rise, but it's essential to remain cautious and not get caught in overexposed positions.

We anticipate a possible rotation out of technology and into other sectors that haven't participated as much. So let's stay informed, keep our long-term goals in mind, and be ready for potential shifts in the market.

Thanks for tuning in, and see you in the next episode!

Jul 24, 202324:55
The Prudent Investor: Redefining Risk in Stock Markets

The Prudent Investor: Redefining Risk in Stock Markets

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, the focus is on the question of whether investors are too aggressively invested in the stock market.

Berger highlights the increasing complacency among stock market investors, especially retirees, and discusses the potential risks of overallocation to stocks.

He references an article in The Wall Street Journal that sparked his interest in the topic.

Berger analyzes the historical performance of the stock market, emphasizing the need to consider volatility and the potential impact on retirement portfolios.

He presents model portfolios and charts to demonstrate the importance of diversification and risk management, particularly for individuals aged 50 and over.

The episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to explore portfolio diversification options through Blue Marlin Advisors.

Jul 17, 202322:52
How a Stock Market Algorithm Outsmarted a Trader

How a Stock Market Algorithm Outsmarted a Trader

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In the newest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, he reflects on how his own indicator and algorithmic process outperformed him in the first half of 2023.

Serge admits to his own mistakes and explains how his indicators work effectively in the markets. He discusses the benefits of using indicators and algorithmic processes, such as speed, efficiency, and the elimination of biases.

Serge emphasizes the importance of respecting moves in different timeframes and shares examples of how his algorithm correctly identified bullish trends in stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, and Microsoft.

He also explores the drawbacks and limitations of relying solely on automated analysis, stressing the need to consider unknown events and market reactions.

Serge concludes by highlighting the power of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis for better decision-making.

Listeners are encouraged to explore the Market Rover tool on thesteadysteadytrader.com

Jul 10, 202322:28
Let's Talk 0DTE Options!

Let's Talk 0DTE Options!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.


In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger dives into the world of zero DTE (days to expiration) options.

He explores the risks and benefits associated with these options, which have gained popularity in recent months.

Berger discusses how zero DTE options are contracts that expire on the same day they are traded and explains how the introduction of options expiring on Tuesdays and Thursdays led to a surge in volume.

He highlights the impact of these options on market volatility and the potential risks they pose to portfolios.

Whether you're a seasoned options trader or just getting started, this episode provides valuable insights into the world of zero DTE options.

Jul 03, 202328:25
The Sector Rotation Strategy Explained!

The Sector Rotation Strategy Explained!

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.


Welcome to the newest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.

In this episode, Serge discusses the strategy of sector and group rotation, which has gained significant interest among investors.

He shares insights from his conversations with clients at Blue Marlin Advisors and the Steady Trader, where sector and group rotation consistently emerges as a top priority.

Serge recounts a recent encounter with a billionaire who showed great enthusiasm for this strategy, highlighting the importance of being allocated to certain stocks or asset classes during favorable market conditions.

Serge walks listeners through the concept of sector and group rotation, emphasizing the need to adapt portfolios throughout the economic cycle.

By the end of the episode, listeners will gain a clear understanding of sector and group rotation and its potential benefits for their investments.

Whether seeking professional management at Blue Marlin Advisors or trade alerts on the Steady Trader, listeners can find ways to implement this strategy and optimize their portfolios.

Jun 26, 202319:27
An Options Trader's Take On Market Risk This Summer

An Options Trader's Take On Market Risk This Summer

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.

In this episode, Serge takes a deep dive into the options market, sharing his insights on its significance and how it impacts trading strategies and investment portfolios. He discusses the recent market rally and provides analysis on what the summer months may have in store for investors.

Serge emphasizes the importance of considering the macroeconomic environment, which is often overlooked by many traders. He acknowledges the concerns surrounding the macro environment and highlights the role it plays in shaping market trends. Serge reflects on his own trading experiences over the past few months, particularly in relation to the counter trend rally he observed.

Drawing from his expertise, Serge explains the distinction between macro environments and fund flows, highlighting how the latter dominates in the multi-week and multi-month timeframes. He shares valuable insights obtained from the options market and its role in understanding investor sentiment.

Serge presents various statistics and indicators to support his analysis. He discusses the heightened call buying activity, increasing implied volatility, and extreme market moves. He provides visual representations of market trends and discusses the implications of extended market conditions and their potential impact on volatility.

Additionally, Serge examines the relationship between options market behavior and the broader equity market, discussing the nuances of the VIX and the importance of monitoring the implied volatility of different strikes and expiration points.

Serge concludes by addressing concerns about liquidity in the market, highlighting factors such as the Treasury general account, student loans, jobless claims, and interest rates that contribute to potential liquidity constraints. He emphasizes the need for cautious investment strategies given the current market conditions.


Jun 19, 202321:04
Where is The Recession?

Where is The Recession?

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger dives into the topic of the economic recession.

Frustration is growing among investors due to the lack of a noticeable economic downturn, especially in the equity market.

Serge focuses primarily on the United States economy but also touches on Europe and China due to their interconnectedness.

He discusses the performance of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, noting significant gains year-to-date.

Serge presents two different camps of thought: the bullish camp, which believes the market won't go much lower due to extreme negativity and a strong consumer, and the bearish camp, which looks at interest rates and the potential impact on economic growth.

He discusses the timing of a recession and highlights problems in regional banking and commercial real estate.

Serge concludes by stating that an economic recession is imminent and advises investors to prepare for a potential downturn.


Jun 12, 202322:21
Can AI Push the Nasdaq To All Time Highs?

Can AI Push the Nasdaq To All Time Highs?

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In this episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger discusses the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the market.

He begins by emphasizing that risk assets, including AI-related stocks, don't move in a straight line but experience pauses and corrections along the way.

Berger shares his personal experience of using AI and how it has improved operational efficiency and cost savings for his business.

He then discusses the phenomenon of companies mentioning AI in their conference calls, which triggers algorithmic trading and drives up stock prices.

Serge highlights the rapid pace of technological adoption and the potential for volatility in the AI sector.

He cautions investors about the risks and advises them to be cautious and not underestimate market volatility.

Berger also mentions the importance of using indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought and oversold conditions in volatile stocks.

Overall, he acknowledges the transformative power of AI but reminds listeners to approach the market with a realistic understanding of its ups and downs.

Jun 05, 202322:24
Tales of Traders: Pushing the Boundaries!

Tales of Traders: Pushing the Boundaries!

Welcome to the Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger!

In this episode, Serge shares fascinating stories of traders taking outrageous risks.

Serge is joined by Brent, a wizard at Steady Trader, who interacts with clients and hears their unique perspectives on approaching the market.

Together, they shed light on the dangers of excessive risk-taking and the misconceptions surrounding trading.

They discuss unrealistic expectations, the allure of quick fixes, and the need for a realistic mindset when it comes to trading.

Join Serge and Brent as they unravel the entertaining yet perilous world of trading and provide valuable insights for listeners!

May 29, 202320:01
Why Self-Directed Investors Underperform the Indices

Why Self-Directed Investors Underperform the Indices

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Looking at actual statistics paints a sobering picture. A staggering 70% of US equity managers underperform their respective indices on a one-year basis, and this number climbs to a disheartening 90% over a ten-year period. Over a 20-year span, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 7.5% per year, while a typical 60/40 portfolio has yielded approximately 6%. Astonishingly, the average investor lags behind at a mere 2.9% per year.

One key problem lies in the trading-centric mindset adopted by most individual investors. They fail to tap into the power of compound interest, shying away from the proven strategy of buy and hold. Diversification becomes an afterthought, and distinguishing reliable information from dubious sources becomes a daunting task. Lack of discipline further hampers their ability to adhere to a long-term investment strategy. Overconfidence bias is a common pitfall among individual investors, leading to detrimental decisions.

To combat these pitfalls, it is recommended that self-directed investors allocate only a fraction (10-20%) of their assets to a trading portfolio, while entrusting the rest to professional guidance. By taking a free 3-minute risk survey at www.bluemarlinadvisors.com, investors can gain valuable insights into their risk profile and make informed decisions to maximize their long-term wealth.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What it means to be an individual investor.

  • Why individual investors underperform on average.

  • How to understand your risk profile and correct it.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Individual investors often exhibit an overconfidence bias.” -Serge Berger

May 22, 202321:13
Breaking Down the Current State of the Stock Market: What You Need to Know

Breaking Down the Current State of the Stock Market: What You Need to Know

The current state of the market remains uncertain, with potential challenges ahead in the coming quarters. Serge is joined by Brian Terry, a colleague from The Steady Trader and Blue Marlin Advisors, to discuss the US markets slow-down. The overall sentiment is negative, as inflation is still not under control, making this year a tough one.

The looming debt ceiling debate adds further volatility, with politicians seemingly waiting for market turmoil before taking action. This situation resembles the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, where a last-minute deal is expected. However, past experiences, like the 2011 default that led to a 6% drop in the S&P, indicate that increased anxiety may occur as the deadline approaches. Failure to reach a resolution could bring short-term pain to the market.

As it is an election year, the divide in opinions is hardened, and there is mounting political pressure on the Federal Reserve (FED) to take action. The current administration seeks to instill hope in the market by urging the FED to act. Amidst these conditions, there is a significant shift towards active management funds, with a focus on longer-term investment strategies and seeking opportunities such as dividend captures or selling covered calls. It is crucial to adopt a more cautious and strategic approach after the prolonged period of essentially free money and irrational market behavior.

What You’ll Learn:

  • How other countries' markets are fairing compared to the US.

  • A few ways you can still make an income from this market.

  • How a covered call strategy works.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Our big focus is, and should be on, our longer term investments.” -Brian Terry

May 15, 202324:29
I’m Shocked At People’s Attitude Towards The Markets

I’m Shocked At People’s Attitude Towards The Markets

The attitude towards money and investing among the majority of people is concerning, according to Serge. Despite the economy being at a point where it needs a healthy slowdown, people continue to show a lack of seriousness toward their finances. Most people have forgotten that the markets go up and down, and there are economic cycles. People tend to have shameless greed and want to make as much money as quickly and as cheaply as possible. This attitude has resulted in people not taking long-term asset allocation seriously, and instead, they trade with 80% of their money while investing only 10-20%.

Serge advocates for the opposite approach, advising people to trade with only 20% of their money and invest the remaining 80%. He suggests spending more time on the long-term investment strategy instead of the short-term trading approach, which is the major fault of financial media and brokers. Serge believes that after two years of a bear market, people should not have a gambling mentality, but instead focus on the power of compound interest. He concludes that there comes a point when it's too late to fix one's portfolio for retirement, and it's essential to start taking investing seriously.

What You’ll Learn:

  • The difference between investing and gambling.

  • How different generations tend to view investing and trading.

  • Ways to boost the long-term bucket when markets go sideways.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“I’m truly, honestly, sincerely, shocked at people’s attitude towards the markets and more specifically, their money.” -Serge Berger

May 08, 202329:02
Are You Investing or Are You Gambling?

Are You Investing or Are You Gambling?

Trading and investing are two distinct approaches to building wealth in the stock market. While trading involves attempting to profit from short-term market fluctuations, investing aims to generate long-term wealth through a diversified portfolio of assets.

The average annual return for the stock market has been around 10.3% per year, while day traders have experienced only a 3.5% return. Despite this, many individuals are still allocating too much of their capital to trading, hoping for big wins rather than steady gains.

Investors understand that there's a time, place, and amount of money to trade with. They typically invest in a diversified portfolio and aim to make the most of their money through this strategy. Swing trading, or the "fun bucket," can make up around 10-15% of their portfolio, while day trading, or the "drunk bucket," should only make up around 5-10%.

Trading requires active management and can lead to higher fees and a lot more time invested. In contrast, investing is more passive, allowing individuals to buy and hold their investments over a longer period. Investors can compound their interest over time, leading to significant long-term gains.

While trading can be an exciting and potentially lucrative strategy, it's important to do it with far less capital than investing. Ultimately, investing has historically outperformed trading, and individuals should aim to allocate more of their capital toward this strategy for long-term wealth building.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why it’s important to diversify your portfolio.

  • The differences between investing and trading.

  • What the 3-bucket approach is.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Quick profits, from a psychological perspective, is rooted in greed.” -Serge Berger

May 01, 202322:23
The Bull Case For Gold

The Bull Case For Gold

The performance of different asset classes has been highly varied this year, with gold emerging as one of the best performers year-to-date. The bull case for gold is clear and there are several reasons why you should consider owning it, although it can be tricky to look at it in a neutral way as people tend to either love it or hate it.

One of the main criticisms of gold is that it doesn't pay a dividend, which may be unacceptable for some people. However, for those who don't trade actively and hold onto it as an investment, gold can be a valuable addition to their portfolio. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and can help with asset diversification. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to gold can offset the underperformance of stocks as it tends to hold its value well.

Furthermore, with a potential economic downturn looming, gold could perform well over the next 12-36 months as it works best when real interest rates are lower. It is worth noting that while silver is more volatile than gold, it has more industrial uses, so it can be a good investment as well. In conclusion, there are compelling reasons to own gold, and investors should consider adding it to their portfolio.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Clear reasons why you should own gold.

  • How much of your portfolio should be allocated to gold.

  • What a gold-friendly environment looks like.

  • The difference between gold and gold miner stocks.

Favorite Quote:

“Some people look at gold as a hedge against inflation.” -Serge Berger

Apr 24, 202325:01
The Power of Compound Interest

The Power of Compound Interest

The power of compound interest is an incredible phenomenon that can have a huge impact on our financial lives. As Einstein famously said, it is the 8th wonder of the world. But what exactly is compound interest, and why is it so powerful?

Put simply, compound interest is interest that we receive on interest. This means that if we invest our money and earn interest, we can reinvest that interest and earn even more interest on the original investment and the interest earned. Over time, this snowballs and can lead to significant growth in our investments.

In the current economic climate, interest rates are higher than they have been for some time, but there are still multiple ways to take advantage of compound interest, including through bonds, ETFs, and dividend-paying portfolios. Reinvesting dividends is a key way to ensure that compound interest is working for you.

Compound interest is not only important for retirement age, everyone should be doing it, and the earlier the better. Many people have gotten into a short-term investment mentality because of low interest rates in recent years, but taking a long-term approach can lead to significant financial gains.

If you're not sure where to start, consider seeking the advice of an investment advisor who can help you create a balanced portfolio that includes both investing and trading. Head over to Blue Marlin Advisors to learn what they can do for you. By harnessing the power of compound interest, you can make your money work harder for you and achieve your financial goals more quickly.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What compound interest is and how to tap into it.

  • What a dividend aristocrat is.

  • What percentage of your portfolio should be for trading vs investing.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Compound interest is not only important for retirement age; everyone should be doing it, and the earlier the better.” -Serge Berger

Apr 17, 202320:59
The Market is Flashing Sell Signals Again

The Market is Flashing Sell Signals Again

Investors and traders are starting to see sell signals in the market once again. While the first quarter for equities was very bullish, many are now watching the Nasdaq 100, which did about 18% in the first quarter, to see if this momentum is sustainable. However, the seasonality of the stock market should be taken with a grain of salt, as historical trends don't always hold true in the current economic climate. Economic data, such as the Purchasing Manufacturers Index, indicates contraction, and this could spell trouble for the equity market.

The fact that the equity market is living on borrowed time is becoming clearer, with the S&P 500 up only about 7-8% for the year and an equally weighted S&P graphing at basically a flat line. The market is propped up by just a few stocks that people have flocked to, such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google, and if these stocks drop, many investors could be hurt, even if just psychologically.

Investors are also watching gold, which tends to do well when real interest rates go lower. However, if and when panic sets in and stocks are being thrown out, gold may react poorly, potentially dropping to as low as 1900. It could be a great time to buy more if you have a long-term view. For more daily nuggets of knowledge, check out Serge’s shorts on YouTube.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why Serge thinks risk assets are ready to resume lower.

  • The difference between the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq Compound.

  • Why stocks and equities like lower interest rates.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“When interest rates start to go lower, stocks and equities tend to like that.” -Serge Berger

Apr 10, 202325:38
When Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

When Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

Serge has found that the number one thing on institutional investors’ radar is when the Federal Reserve will start to cut rates. This is almost unprecedented as usually the top concern is about stocks. Serge believes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, as we will see a real recession soon. Equities, particularly tech stocks, have recently rallied strongly and tend to perform well in the long game. When interest rates are lowered from a higher rate and a recession is looming, legit tech stocks tend to get a bounce. However, when rates go from ultra-low to almost 5%, the shock is real and comes in waves. 

As the economy worsens, interest rates will lower. The market is going to front run the Fed, which does not control the Treasury market. The first rate cut is expected to happen sometime between this summer and the end of the year. The Fed often reacts more quickly to save the economy in terms of it getting worse than they would in a tightening cycle. Interest rates peaked in early March of this year, and it is expected that the first cut will happen 3-6 months from now. Until then, Serge believes Bonds are still the way to go when investing.

What You’ll Learn:

  • How a real recession tends to play out.
  • The difference between inflation and defaults.
  • Why you should consider investing in Bonds.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Every recession ends in some sort of a credit crisis.” -Serge Berger

Apr 03, 202323:40
How Traders and Investors Determine Trends with Daniel Sinnig

How Traders and Investors Determine Trends with Daniel Sinnig

Daniel Sinnig studied to be a software engineer, but always had his eye on trading and investing. He believes that finding trends is one of the most crucial aspects of being a successful trader and investor. Daniel realized that he needed better tools to help him make better investment decisions, so he used his software engineering background to create tools to help him with his trades. Eventually, he was introduced to Serge and together they developed Market Rover, a web-based tool that helps traders and investors identify trends in the global macro picture, and economic and business cycles.

According to Daniel, the biggest challenge for traders is figuring out what to trade. With so many options available, traders can become overwhelmed and make impulsive decisions. Over the past decade, Daniel has seen short-termism kick in, causing traders to lose sight of major trends. He advises traders not to fight the market but rather go with the trends.

Market Rover is a web-based tool that allows traders to access trend signals without downloading or installing anything. The tool was originally built for in-house use but was eventually developed to share with the rest of the world. Daniel believes that web-based tools are the future of trading and investing, as they remove obstacles and make it easier for traders to access information. He also emphasizes the difference between trend signals and trade signals, advising traders to focus on the bigger picture when making investment decisions.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What the biggest challenge for traders is.

  • How the Watchlist feature works.

  • The difference between trend and trade indicators.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“We made this dashboard as intuitive and as simple as possible.” -Daniel Sinnig

Mar 27, 202328:50
Why Understanding Charts Matters with John Burnell

Why Understanding Charts Matters with John Burnell

Understanding charts is essential for traders and investors as it helps them analyze data, identify trends, and make informed decisions. Research analysis, which is based on technical analysis, can be a powerful tool for those looking to trade in financial markets. John Burnell, an account manager and team member at Steady Trader, is a strong advocate of technical analysis and its usefulness in trading.

Burnell initially struggled to understand why markets were volatile and constantly changing. However, he found candlestick charts to be a valuable resource for technical analysis, as they provide a visual representation of market trends. He believes that technical analysis can be extremely helpful if used correctly and that oversimplification is what draws many traders to it.

Burnell has experimented with different indicators, such as moving averages and market memory, and has found that the odds are more in his favor when multiple indicators confirm a trend. He also advises traders to check the whole sector and look for correlations when they see something going on in their favorite stock.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What ‘confluence’ means in regards to technical analysis.

  • What some of the indicators used at Steady Trader are.

  • Why global liquidity is so important to follow.

  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“The business cycle, and more importantly, the credit cycle, will always supersede and trump the charts.” -Serge Berger

Mar 20, 202327:04
Why Covered Calls Make Sense Now

Why Covered Calls Make Sense Now

Covered call strategies are an investment technique that can generate income on a portfolio of stocks, or even without a portfolio of stocks. This strategy has been previously overlooked, but it works in both bull and bear markets. It is essentially a neutral to bullish strategy where an investor sells an out-of-the-money call against every 100 shares of stock they own, while simultaneously collecting a premium. If the option expires, the trader can keep the stock and sell against it again. If the worst-case scenario happens and the stock is called away, the trader still keeps the premium earned.

One benefit of the covered call strategy is that it can snowball into a true compound effect and generate side income. The strategy is a low-risk way of using options and can also be used to hedge risk by giving compensation. Additionally, it is a monthly income strategy that can be used with a steady stock.

However, it is important to note that if the stock is volatile, the risk of options being underpriced is higher. Furthermore, it is not advisable to use the covered call strategy if the stock price is expected to make a big move in the near future. Overall, the covered call strategy provides an opportunity to generate income and mitigate risk.

Serge is currently putting together a 3-hour course on covered calls to take place in the near future, so stay tuned for details on that. If, in the meantime, you have further questions about covered calls, feel free to email support@thesteadytrader.com. If interested in having a covered call strategy done for you, head over to Blue Marlin Advisors.

What You’ll Learn:

  • How to create a covered call.
  • What can go wrong with a covered call.
  • How a covered call can be a monthly income strategy.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“A covered call is one of those forgotten strategies.” -Serge Berger

Mar 13, 202319:39
Why The Fed Wants Stocks Lower

Why The Fed Wants Stocks Lower

According to our projections, the stock market may revisit the lows of 2020 or go even lower. The Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates as the situation gets more volatile, and credit and bond markets may react accordingly. However, due to the pandemic, it is taking longer to see any real panic in credit markets, as trillions of dollars flooded the economy, giving people a false sense of security. Inflation is also increasing sharply, and the job market is robust. The Fed wants the stock market to go lower to slow down consumer spending and prevent the economy from becoming too frothy. The current interest rates are high, and if they remain so, it will become difficult for people to afford debt. Therefore, driving the economy into a wall may be the solution.

The three stages of a bear market are a bubble pop, which happened in 2022, followed by a stage where people think the worst is over and get a false sense of hope, and the third stage where things start to break, usually in the credit markets. Interest rates on credit cards are around 20%, making it crucial for the Fed to control the economy. The side benefit of higher interest rates is that investors can move to risk-free investments like the 6-12 month T-bill, which yields about 5%. As a result, people are advised to sell their stocks and buy bonds. If the stock market craters, those who have invested in bonds will make a 5% risk-free return. It is expected to take about 30 months for the stock market to return to its highs so it’s wise to plan accordingly.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why the Fed has to see the stock market lower.
  • Why the Fed has to have the economy slow down and go into recession.
  • What a T-Bill is and how they work.
  • The average time it takes for stocks to rebound.

Favorite Quote:

“The Fed will not ease their policy until stuff starts to break.” -Serge Berger

Mar 06, 202322:52
Beware of Stock Market Seasonality in Bear Markets

Beware of Stock Market Seasonality in Bear Markets

The stock market is a complex entity, and there are many things that can happen which are difficult to predict or fathom. One such thing is stock market seasonality, which tends to be more difficult to predict during bear markets. Bear markets are defined by their volatility, and making money during a bear market is difficult. Past bear markets, such as the year 2000 and the 2007-2009 financial crisis, were marked by extreme volatility and were difficult to trade.

Seasonality is a pattern that can be observed in the stock market. For the S&P 500, it is typically hard to predict how equities will perform between February and March, with January-March being choppy with big rallies, sell-offs, or markets that go nowhere. The second half of March and April are typically good months, while May and June are consolidation months, and July and August are generally non-eventful. September and October are historically difficult and choppy, and November and December have big risk moves at year-end.

During a bear market, stock market seasonality is more prone to emotions, with more news flow that can surprise people. However, one of the more reliable patterns is the Q4 rally, which typically rallies into the first half of December. In 2022, this pattern was observed when the market bottomed in October and rallied into mid-December, up 17%. It is important to use multiple analysis points at any given point in the cycle, rather than relying on single-factor analysis.

Bear markets are tough to trade because different players come in non-traditionally, and the retail community, given more of a voice with social media, can impact the market in unexpected ways. However, despite ongoing bear market conditions, the bull spirit of the retail community persists, with very few people being truly concerned.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why bear markets tend to last, and how they play out in the second half.
  • Why it’s so hard to make money in a bear market.
  • Why the Q4 rally tends to be more reliable and how to capitalize on it.
  • Why you shouldn’t use single-factor analysis.

Favorite Quote:

“The bear market is not over, but the bull spirit of the retail community is certainly not done yet either.” -Serge Berger

Feb 27, 202324:30
Why Stocks Could Rally Into The Spring

Why Stocks Could Rally Into The Spring

We may see stocks continue to rally over the next few weeks to months. To understand why, we must first understand where we fit in the bigger picture. If you don’t understand things like the economic cycle, it can be very difficult to make money, often chasing false rallies, or selling in false sell-offs. As we’re all painfully aware, interest rates have gone from about .5% to about 5% in the last 18 months. While they have gone up this high before, they never have this quickly. It’s inevitable that we’ll have credit issues, we just don’t know how severe or when. It always takes awhile to work its way through the system.

If you didn’t catch last week’s episode where we discussed the recession playbook, consider going back and taking a listen. We’re essentially right on track with inflation cooling off and starting to come down. This usually means the equity market will rally sharply. We already saw a surprise rally in Q4, and a hot January jobs report kept the rally alive. With 10x more money in the market than during the 2008 financial crisis, we’ve already seen the Nasdaq rebound 20% for the year. With the Nasdaq going up 50-60% before, there’s still plenty of room for improvement. Just have patience, things will take some time to play out.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why you have to understand the bigger, global, macro picture.
  • What the Q4 Surprise Rally usually looks like.
  • How political timelines can influence the stock market.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“We, as human beings, have gotten increasingly impatient. Things will take some time to play out.” -Serge Berger

Feb 20, 202326:51
The Recession Playbook for Investors and Traders

The Recession Playbook for Investors and Traders

Over at Blue Marlin Advisors, when the economy goes into a recession, there’s a specific playbook they employ. A recession is not necessarily all that critical, it’s how the market responds to it. Recessions are actually a normal, and important, part of the economic cycle. If we look back over the years, we can clearly see this repeating cycle of some sort of growth phase, a peak, and a slow down or retraction. For people that know how to work with the retractions, economic slow downs can actually be good.

Currently the slowing down of the economy is being accelerated. We had a very favorable market for many years, which peaked with the pandemic rescue funds. Late 2021, early 2022, the FED started to realize what was going on, and began to raise rates aggressively. At some point, you then get higher equity prices. As inflation tends to slow down, people get hopeful and rally, usually buying up what was popular at the peak. The more macro-oriented, however, will be keeping a close eye on the credit markets. We just saw rates go from basically 0 to over 5%. While the FED has hiked rates that high before, they’ve never done it this quickly. It takes time for things like this to move through the system, but we’ll definitely start to see credit problems coming in soon.

There’s a lag between bond market pricing and what the FED does. That’s why the federal funds rate may not move, but bond markets will start to improve. It’s a hope rally, and it’s what we’re seeing right now. When we get to the point where the equity market is getting ready to capitulate, equity managers tend to start to panic. We’re not really seeing a lot of panic yet, but when we do, it’ll be a great time to buy risk asset stocks. If you know how the economic cycle goes, you can usually stay one step ahead. If you’d like to find out your risk level for current economic times, head over to Blue Marlin Advisors for a free consultation.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What an economic cycle looks like.
  • Why all parts of an economic cycle are so important.
  • How economic slowdowns can be good for some.
  • Where we’re at in the economic cycle right now.

Favorite Quote:

“Every part of the economic cycle has a distinct asset class mix that’s perfect for your portfolio.” -Serge Berger

Feb 13, 202325:14
The Pros and Cons of ETFs in Your Portfolio

The Pros and Cons of ETFs in Your Portfolio

Over the last 20+ years, ETFs have increasingly become a staple in many people’s portfolios. From an investing and trading perspective, there are a lot of reasons for this. From tradability and tax-efficiency, to diversification and transparency, ETFs can be a great option. Other times, they aren’t the best option. Let’s look at the pros and cons.

For tradability, unlike mutual funds, ETFs can theoretically be traded in and out throughout the day. In fact, there are many people who do day-trade ETFs. The flexibility and liquidity are main reasons why people gravitate towards ETFs. When it comes to tax efficiency, ETFs go through less capital gains than most other options out there. If you want to diversify, ETFs are a great choice as they cover most major asset classes. If transparency is important to you, consider that most ETFs disclose holdings on a daily basis.

Now, a lot of the pros of ETFs can also be cons in some scenarios. For instance, if you hold ETFs too long, there are management fees involved. While they are usually less than those of mutual funds, they’re still there. For liquidity, there are some ETFs that don’t have the volume to be able to liquidate easily, so be aware of this. There’s also a potential for less diversification, as many individual stocks within ETFs have a lot of overlap. While the pros seem to outweigh the cons, you should always be aware of the potential for cons.

If you’re an individual investor that wants to trade, check out The Steady Trader, where there are lots of individual trade alerts and research to tap into. If you have a portfolio and need an investment advisor, visit us at Blue Marlin Advisors and get connected.

What You’ll Learn:

Why ETF’s don’t appeal to some people.

Why ETF’s should be a part of your portfolio.

How ETF’s can help you gain exposure to different markets.

Why you should always check the liquidity of an ETF.

Favorite Quote:

“ETF’s are great products if they’re being treated properly.” -Serge Berger

Feb 06, 202328:36
Common Mistakes Self-Directed Investors Make with Kate Stalter

Common Mistakes Self-Directed Investors Make with Kate Stalter

Getting set up for retirement is important to a lot of people, and a financial portfolio is often the way that is done. Today, Serge is joined by special guest, Kate Stalter, to discuss the common mistakes people make with their portfolios. Kate got her start in the financial industry working for Bill O’Neil at the Investor’s Business Daily. She reached a lot of people through speaking engagements with IBD, but knew she wanted to work closer, one-on-one, with people. She accomplished that by getting into the registered investment advisors business. While she’s witnessed a lot of success stories, she’s also seen a lot of common, and easy to avoid, mistakes made.

As we come off of a 12 year stretch where it was easy to make money, it’s hard to get people to understand that what worked then won’t work now. So many people have gotten into the habit of trading the flavor of the month, and not sticking to a strategy that was designed for what they wanted to accomplish. Both Kate and Serge have seen it time and time again. Self-directed investors will usually lose money in the long run.

It’s important to be broadly invested, but people usually have a bias toward their own country, their own region, and stocks they are familiar with. Self-directed investors get caught up in breakout stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and Apple.  Most of the time it’s based on the hype created by financial media. Serge and Kate both agree it’s so important to understand that financial media are not your financial advisors, they really are in the entertainment business. They are beholden to their sponsors, not to you. Likewise, subscribing to a financial newsletter is not personalized advice. If you truly want a strategy that is tailored to you, you need a financial advisor.

If you’ve lost money in the stock market, don’t be ashamed. Just like someone who isn’t a dentist wouldn’t pull their own tooth, you are not a stock market expert. Even though the financial media will try to tell you it’s so easy, it’s really not. Experts will know the right questions to ask as an objective third party. If you’re curious what a financial advisor could do for you, head over to Blue Marlin Advisors, and sign up to have your portfolio looked at.

What You’ll Learn:

What it means to be broadly invested.

Why you should separate your emotions from your money.

The overall success rate with constant trading.

What questions a financial advisor might ask you.

Favorite Quote:

“The financial media are not your financial advisors. They really are in the entertainment business.” -Kate Stalter

Jan 30, 202330:51
How to Double Your Portfolio Income

How to Double Your Portfolio Income

With the current state of the stock market, one might be wondering how you could double, triple, or even quadruple your portfolio income. The answer is with bonds. Bonds might not be as exciting as the stock market, but they’re where earning potential lies in our current market. A lot of people still don’t understand, or maybe just haven’t accepted, the giant shift we’ve had in 2022. That shift directly correlates with the rise in interest rates. We may have seen these interest rates in the past, but we’ve never seen them go up quite this quickly.

While many publicly traded companies have taken big hits, it’s actually easier now to make money in the markets than it has been in a long time. It is very much dependent on people taking action now though. Take a look at your portfolio and notice how heavily it relies on stocks. Now, rebalance your portfolio to include more fixed income or bonds. The easy money policy has come to an end for the time being, but where high interest rates are bad for stocks, they’re good for bonds. Bonds can take down your investment risk by half and increase your earnings by at least double.

If you don’t already have an investment advisor and would like someone to take a free, comprehensive look at your portfolio, visit Blue Marlin Advisors. Let us show you how you can reach a certain target return by investing with less risk than ever before.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What the Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is.
  • How Covid impacted the MMT.
  • What we can expect for interest rates over the next few years.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“I’m not speaking against trading, but I have dramatically changed how I trade, and what I trade.” -Serge Berger

Jan 23, 202328:55
New Era in Investing and Trading Where Patience is Key

New Era in Investing and Trading Where Patience is Key

The old saying, ‘patience is a virtue’, is true in the trading and investing world of today’s markets. In December, Serge received 10-15 inquiries from people getting ready to retire, who wanted to take more charge of their finances and be more involved in the markets. The problem with this is once people get more involved and passionate, they tend to overtrade or jump on the first thing that comes across their desk. Patience is one of those things that has seemingly gone by the wayside as instant gratification has become the norm. Many investors become chart chasers, meaning they look for, and invest in, the latest breakout trends. But, Serge says that era has ended for now. While commodities may see some chart chasing opportunities, in general, chart chasing is over.

Most people have done well for the last 12 years or so, but not because they were geniuses at picking good stocks. It was because the general market went up. We saw historically low, almost 0%, interest rates. Interest rates now are around 5%, making it a much different ball game. In today’s markets, we need to be more focused on macro economics. That doesn’t mean you have to become an economics professor, it just means you have to do a little more research. Investors are going to want to keep a close eye on the dollar index and interest rates, as there is a direct correlation between the dollar going up and equities going down. So again, patience will be key. Don’t fall into the trap of overtrading, as, historically speaking, it’s only worth it to trade during about 20-30 days in any calendar year. Most people trade much more often than that. If all of that sounds like too much for you, you may want to consider getting an investment advisor.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is.
  • What macroeconomics are.
  • What the Average True Range is and why it’s important.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Patience is one of those things that we, as human beings, aren’t very good at.” -Serge Berger

Jan 16, 202328:20
Commodity and Energy Super Cycle

Commodity and Energy Super Cycle

While conducting an end of year review, Serge came to the conclusion that we’re very clearly in a commodity and energy super cycle.  While the length of a super cycle is usually hindsight, it’s looking like it could be from 5 to 20 years. For a long time, the energy sector wasn’t doing anything, and then between 2020 and 2022 it went up 50%. Energy stocks have gone from 3% of the S&P allocation to 5%, but could easily go up to 8, 9, or even 10%. For perspective, tech stocks make up about 26%, financial about 12%, and industrial about 9%.

With new technology coming on the market, and things like the electric vehicle revolution, the S&P allocation is bound to see some shakeup. As we move away from fossil fuels for example, electric vehicles will use things like copper and graphite.The future demand for these things will steadily increase over the next 5 years. Graphite for example, is forecasted to see a 17x demand. Even coal has seen a large increase. While it’s still a small percentage of all energy, we’re using more coal than ever. Long story short, energy is important to the human race and definitely isn’t going anywhere.

What You’ll Learn:

  • The top reasons we’re still very bullish on commodities and energy.
  • How trends in the stock market are calculated.
  • How the electric vehicle revolution will affect the stock market.
  • Why people are giving up commodities as an asset class.

Favorite Quote:

“Energy is such a trending part of the market and shows absolutely zero chance of ending anytime soon.” -Serge Berger

Jan 09, 202324:41
Key Takeaways From 2022

Key Takeaways From 2022

As we head into 2023, we’re looking back on and discussing the most important takeaways from 2022. To put it simply, 2022 was the first ugly year in terms of returns for a lot of people. When we take into consideration that the average age on Wall Street is 35, and the last bull market was 12-13 years, we know that most young traders have never seen a bear market. The tip of the iceberg that nudged us over into a different era for markets was 2020. Covid hit and we saw a lot of stimulus money going out in 2020 and 2021. This resulted in a big spike in inflation.

The change in market wasn’t solely a result of covid however. A large factor was 10-15 years of way too loose monetary policy. We saw historically low interest rates, but interest rates don’t stay low forever. If we look at the US treasury market, we’ve been in a bull market for 40 years. These long stretches of bull markets led to complacency with many traders. People have become conditioned to buy in the dip, and sentiment takes time to change. The key to investing and trading in 2023 will be lots of research and well thought out moves.

What You’ll Learn:

  • The biggest financial takeaways from 2022.
  • How Covid did and didn’t affect the market.
  • What signs point to things being too good to be true.
  • What to expect in 2023.

Favorite Quote:

“We’re going to have to become more researched investors and traders.” -Serge Berger

Jan 02, 202323:43
The Time For Capitulation
Dec 12, 202228:34
What Higher Interest Rates Mean For Your Portfolio
Nov 30, 202224:01
Why Some Investors Are Scared of Investment Advisors`

Why Some Investors Are Scared of Investment Advisors`

Many people have preconceived notions about investment advisors, or they’ve had bad experiences with them in the past. Today, Serge discusses why many people are opposed to financial advisors, and conversely why they’re a good idea to have. As CIO at Blue Marlin Advisors, Serge has found that once people are better educated, they ultimately find that it makes sense, and don’t know why they didn’t have one before. The main reason people avoid having a financial advisor is that they don’t think they need one, but that’s often the first objection to go with a little more understanding.

As we just closed out a long bull market, a lot of people have gained a false sense of security and think the investment game is easy. Most investors are short sighted however, and don’t know how to put together a well thought out plan. A good, independent investment advisor will help guide you through the whole economic cycle. Many people will get a volatility shock as we get further into a bear market. An investment advisor can’t guarantee you’ll always see returns, sometimes their job will be more about mitigating losses and positioning for future success. At the end of the day, a good, independent investment advisor is an asset that can help you to retire sooner and/or with more money in the bank.

What You’ll Learn:

  • The difference between a financial advisor and investment advisor.
  • Why bull markets are actually a dangerous place.
  • Top misconceptions people have about investment advisors.
  • Why it’s important to have an independent investment advisor.

Favorite Quote:

“Bull markets, ironically, are a very dangerous environment for some people.” -Serge Berger

Nov 21, 202225:19
Stocks Are In For A Lost Decade

Stocks Are In For A Lost Decade

With 2022 coming to an end, a lot of people, especially those with the classic 60/40 portfolio, will be in for a miserable time. Most people aren’t aware of how their portfolio is performing until they open their end of year statement. With equity markets down 20-30% and more, we’re not seeing nearly the same yields as years past. We’re headed for a lost decade with the S&P, and now’s the time to prepare. History does tend to repeat itself, though, so let's take a look at what we’ve learned from the past.

Lost decades tend to come after an excessive period, which we’ve certainly had. Now we’re seeing low equity returns and high interest rates. While inflation will come down, it won’t get back to those 0% interest rates we once had. De-globalization will also affect markets. So how can we better set ourselves up? There’s a good argument to be made for flipping the classic 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60 model. That would be 40% in equities and 60% in bonds.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What a classic 60/40 allocation portfolio is.
  • What a lost decade means in the S&P.
  • How deglobalization will impact the stock market.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“In order to see where we might be able to go, we have to know where we’ve come from.” -Serge Berger

Nov 14, 202226:19
Why Stocks Could Rally into Year-End

Why Stocks Could Rally into Year-End

While seasonal patterns shouldn’t be the sole factor in a market analysis, it is definitely worth including. As we enter the 4th quarter, it’s seasonally a very strong period for the market. On today’s episode, we’re going to look at the probability of a year end rally in the equity markets, and the various factors that contribute to this possibility.

Seasonal patterns are a result of investor behavior, and there is plenty of psychology behind this. In today’s macro focused economy, we have to pay close attention to the global market’s interest rates and currencies. Central banks are still in a tightening phase, and this won’t change right away, but we do expect it to slowly change direction.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What various factors contribute to a year end rally.
  • How midterm and election years affect the market.
  • What Serge believes the probability of a year end rally is.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“We are in an environment where the market will front run and price things in, more so than in a simple bear market.” -Serge Berger

Oct 31, 202222:44
When Is It Time To Buy ARKK ETF Again?

When Is It Time To Buy ARKK ETF Again?

The exchange traded fund ARKK is one that many people are familiar with. Unfortunately, it’s also one that isn’t doing particularly well right now. It’s down about 60% from last year, and 80% from it's high. So, let's look at what broader economic environment we need before it’s worthwhile again. To put it simply, we need a market environment that’s much more friendly in terms of money availability.

Liquidity is one of the biggest problems we face in the market right now. With interest rates having gone up over 2,000%, we are not at a point where investors are happy to buy ETFs. Now, we don’t necessarily need feds to cut interest rates, but we do need them to stop raising them and acknowledge the issues happening in the economy. If they do stop raising interest rates, we expect to see an initial rally followed by a decline, then a rate cut. At the end of the day, it’s liquidity in the system that will make ARKK ETFs worthwhile again.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What the fundamentals of valuation are.
  • What liquidity means in terms of money availability.
  • What quantitative tightening means.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“At the end of the day, these stocks need an environment more conducive to risk taking.” -Serge Berger

Oct 17, 202223:47
How to Create Portfolio Income

How to Create Portfolio Income

Things look pretty ugly across the board. It’s something Serge was forecasting as far back as spring 2021. Over the past couple weeks, Serge has seen people start to wake up to the fact that the market is bottoming out. People are scared, and they want to know what to do. One concerning trend that Serge has noticed is that people’s portfolios are largely made up of non-yielding assets. People are slowly realizing that we’re in a different market environment where the need for yield is more important. So, what do we do?

There are different ways to generate yield in different markets, but one thing is for sure, you have to have a well structured portfolio. Now is the time to consider bonds as you can get risk free about 4.2% on a 2-year note. Utilities are another great option, as long as you keep in mind that they are still stocks. Of course, you can sell calls against stock, but while that lowers volatility, it’s not complete protection. Try to diversify across different asset classes, such as stocks, fixed income, and commodities.

What You’ll Learn:

  • Why bonds are a good idea.
  • What it means to have a well structured portfolio.
  • How utility stocks stack up against the S&P.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“It’s important to have yield, not just growth.” -Serge Berger

Oct 10, 202230:49
Investors Are Still Too Bullish

Investors Are Still Too Bullish

Seasonal patterns are a real thing, and the autumn market fears are in full swing. There are just parts of the year where, on average, it just doesn’t pay to be doing anything. That’s not to say the market is about to crash, or that no one is bearish, but individual investors are definitely still too bullish. It could be because we just had a 12 year bear market in equities, but individual investors are still very complacent. Their lack of fear may be because what’s truly going on in the market hasn’t reached headlines yet.

We haven’t seen a single headline of any major company getting into serious trouble, or of funds blowing up. While it’s true that retail investors don’t have as much power to move markets, we can’t deny that over the past few years they have allocated close to a trillion dollars, mostly into risk assessments like equities. In addition, the headlines over the last couple of years have touted the rise of the individual investor. With liquidity being reduced, the global economy stalling quickly, and markets freezing up, it’s not too late to de-risk however.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What the AAAI survey looks at in the market.
  • What it means to be an indexer.
  • What the Apple stock can teach us.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Stock markets crash when they’re over sold, not when they’re over bought.” -Serge Berger

Oct 03, 202225:18
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Sep 26, 202228:09
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Sep 14, 202230:23
Is It Time To Buy Bonds?

Is It Time To Buy Bonds?

The bond market isn’t really on the radar of retail investors. What has caught people’s attention is that portfolios are down. With the bond market being much bigger than the equity market, is now the time to buy bonds? Most retirement plans have bonds, with the general suggested allocation being 60% equities to 40% fixed income, adjusting with age. Whether issued by the US treasury or a corporation, chances are bonds are already a part of your portfolio. While it’s difficult to answer this question with a straight yes or no, Serge can make a good case that it is, if you focus on the right part of the yield curve.

We can all agree that the economy is slowing, but you have to consider that it doesn’t turn on a dime. The Fed is doing the largest financial tightening move in recorded history, and many are asking why bonds haven’t rallied yet. It has to do with the volatility of the market. The hawkish tone of the Fed has scared people away from the bond market. Serge thinks this is about to change, possibly over the next quarter. If we keep our eye on the 10-year part of the yield curve, Serge thinks it very well could be a buy year. If you’re interested in daily investment update videos, sign up at thesteadytrader.com.

What You’ll Learn:

  • How your portfolio should change as you age.
  • What the yield curve is and why it’s important.
  • When we can expect volatility to come back down.
  • And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“The Fed is doing the largest financial tightening move in recorded history.” -Serge Berger

Sep 05, 202225:53