The Omnis Investment Club

An overall mixed week for markets, with three of the five major indexes seeing positive returns. Cooling inflation data has been welcomed by investors in the world’s major economies, as expectations of interest rates being cut in 2024 continue to grow. In the U.S., new unemployment data proved helpful to the central bank’s goal of a soft economic landing.

Markets returns were mixed in a quiet week of stock market trading. Economic growth continued to deteriorate and investors remain focused on the next moves from central banks in light of falling inflation and declining economic activity. US stocks lead the way in returns, building on a strong November rally.

Markets ended the week generally higher amid cooling inflation signals. Tuesday’s better-than-expected monthly inflation report sparked a stock market rally in an otherwise quiet week of trading. As a result of this lower-than-expected inflation reading, we saw a shift in the interest rate outlook – and as a result bond yields fell during the week, meaning that bonds also had a good week (as bond prices move in the opposite direction to yields).

A mixed week for markets, with four of the five major indexes seeing positive returns. Despite this, governments and central banks remain vigilant as weak economic activity persists in the world’s largest economies. The UK’s FTSE 100 was the only major index to see a decline, as the British economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2023.

A strong upswing for markets. News of major central banks pausing on interest rate rises h buoyed investors, seeing global equity and bond markets rally. Despite interest rates being held, central banks remain cautious about inflation concerns. Furthermore, concerns about slowing economic activity in the world’s major economies remains prevalent.

Another difficult week for global markets as Middle East tensions, higher interest rates for longer and mixed economic data releases keep investors on their toes. Corporate earnings from major US companies were a big focus of the week alongside much anticipated US economic growth data and the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.

A difficult week for global markets – with rising geopolitical tensions spooking investors, amid fears that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may escalate further. Central banks remain wary of inflation concerns, despite the pause in interest rate rises, with rising oil prices adding further pressure to inflation in the world’s major markets.

A mixed week for global markets– who continue to keep a watchful eye on data to get any clues of what may or may not happen with interest rates moving forwards. Central banks are beginning to signal a potential pause in their hiking cycles as interest rate rises feed their way through to the economy. Striking a balance between relying on data and less tangible indicators on the health of the economy will be a major task for central banks in the weeks ahead.

A mixed for markets and investors – who continue to keep a watchful eye on data to get any clues of what may or may not happen with interest rates moving forwards. In the US, employment data paints a nuanced picture. Domestic activity in China picks up during the holidays, but consumer spending declines in Japan. The Eurozone’s economy appears to be stalling and UK prices continue to decline.

All signs point to interest rates having to remain at higher levels for longer – and higher oil prices this week worked to reaffirm this expectation and weighing on markets. However, data from the US and Europe this week is showing that inflation is slowing. Elsewhere, the Japanese government outline a stimulus plan and data suggests that the Chinese economy may have now bottomed.

Investor sentiment was dampened this week by suggestions from various central banks that interest rates may have to stay at higher levels for longer, despite the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank all opting to pause interest rates increases (for now).  

It was a mixed week for global markets, with many different factors impacting markets. The US saw indications that inflation is coming down. Japan was boosted by China’s economic data, though the impact on Chinese markets was more muted due to the downturn in its property sector. Interest rates go up once again in Europe, and in the UK, economic data points to a stronger-than-expected slowdown.

Economic signals drove markets this week – in the US a stronger economy has led investors to worry about interest rates remaining elevated for longer. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy is proving to be less resilient than anticipated and China continues to show signs of a waning recovery. Signs of economic weakness in Europe also weighed on markets.

Markets bounced back strongly this week as a weaker labour market in the US leads investors to believe we may soon be approaching peak interest rates. Support the China’s faltering economy also boosted global markets. Meanwhile, inflation continues to show signs of slowing down. In the UK, all eyes are on the property market, but the economy recovered from the pandemic much faster than previously reported.

Performance was negative for the major stock markets last week. The US experienced improved growth forecasts, whilst inflation in the UK and Eurozone eased.  Data from China continues to paint a gloomy picture for its economy and Japanese growth was better than expected.

Performance was mainly negative for the major stock markets last week. US interest rate expectations appear to be mixed, Japanese inflation appears to continually ease whilst China’s latest economic data release paints a gloomy picture. The near-term outlook for the Eurozone economy has weakened, whilst the UK economy has experienced better than expected growth.

A broad decline in markets were felt in the week, with Chinese stock markets being the exception. In the West, the US Labour market appears to be healthy and the Bank of England has raised its key interest rate to 5.25% points. The Eurozone has seen modest growth with inflation appearing to ease.

Major stock markets advanced in the week, despite the US and European Central Banks increase their interest rates. Inflation in Japan remains above target. Meanwhile, China’s government pledging further support to boost the economy. Eyes are on the UK as the Bank of England is meeting this week to discuss the next move for interest rates, with the market expecting another hike.

It was a fairly mixed week in the markets but clear signs of easing inflation in the US and UK, this helps to emphasise investors’ view that we may be approaching peak interest rates. With a fairly busy week for central bank around the world ahead of us, all eyes will be on what they have to say more than any actual interest rate hikes.

Global markets were boosted by two key things this week. On one hand, positive signs that inflation was cooling rapidly in the US boosted investor sentiment as it could mean that interest rates may soon stop rising. Across the other side of the globe, further support for the property market in China is paving the way for further economic support for China’s economy where the post-pandemic recovery is quickly losing steam.

Signs that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, would likely continue rising interest rates impacted markets globally. In Japan, investors lock in profits from a stellar year for Japanese equities, whilst data out of Europe and China points to economic weakness. UK house prices decline as mortgage rates soar.

Stocks were broadly positive this week, with inflation in major economies appearing to slow down. The UK is an exception here, where inflation is stickier. The US economy is showing signs of strength, Japan has stuck to its guns with low interest rates and Chinese officials have pledged that measures will be introduced to boost development in the country.

Stocks closed lower last week, with sentiment in western developed markets driven mostly by inflation and interest rates. Following the Eurozone’s rate hike, the UK raised rates to levels not seen since 2008. China’s economic growth forecasts for 2023 has fallen following poor post pandemic recovery, whilst the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. US economic data is suggesting that the rate hike may be pushing the country into recession.

It was another good week for markets, with investor sentiment boosted by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate increases. Meanwhile, China shows signs of willingness to provide support for the economy and Japan remains with its ultra-low interest rates. Whilst interest rates are set to continue to rise in the UK and Europe, this week markets sided with the positive news coming out of other parts of the world.

US and Japan stock markets were boosted by economic optimism, whereas the Eurozone has entered a technical recession. China is continuing to struggle with sluggish post pandemic recovery. The UK property market shows decline, whilst the “Atlantic Declaration” has been agreed between the US and UK to benefit trade between the nations.

With the US Debt Ceiling being suspended, US and Asian equities rallied. Inflation remains sticky in Europe and the UK. The Japanese economy remains strong with potential for further growth, whilst manufacturing levels in China are weaker than expected.

A positive week for markets, driven by positive noise out of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, and signs that central banks may soon stop raising interest rates. In Japan, markets near a 33-year high, whilst in China, concerns that the economic recovery is losing steam weighed on markets. In the UK, the focus remains on inflation.

Investors continue focussed on the three key variables – Firstly, economic growth, and specifically how deep or shallow any recession we have might be. Secondly, all eyes remain on inflation, which, whilst appears to be slowing, remains elevated. Finally, investors remain vigilant on future interest rate hikes, with further hikes still expected across the world.

It was a fairly muted week for market, mainly as result of it being a quiet week for economic data. In the US, the focus turned to corporate results; in Japan, all eyes are on the central Bank. Investors in China worry about tensions with the US. In Europe, investors focussed on data suggesting a strong economy, but in the UK, inflation continues to take the limelight.  

Broadly speaking it was a reasonably positive week for markets – driven by data suggesting more resilient economies around the world. Worries about the economy recover in China remain a concern and Japanese equities in particular get a boost this week.  

Markets rallied across the world as disruption in the banking sector begins to settle as regulators intervene to protect the financial system. Inflation remains problematically high around the world. China’s economic rebound gains pace whilst in the UK, the economy proves to be more resilient than expected.

The last few weeks have been eventful, driven by turmoil in the banking sector. On Sunday 19 March, UBS agreed to purchase Credit Suisse and central banks across the world announced coordinated action to ease strains in financial markets. Markets reacted broadly positively. The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raise interest rates this week too.  

The evolving situation with Silicon Value Bank and Credit Suisse

Signs that interest rates could carry on rising for longer dampened investor sentiment across the globe. In China, a lower economic growth target also weighed on markets. The financial health of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was also a focal point towards the end of the week, with developments well into the weekend. 

Please note that within the Omnis funds, only one of our funds has direct exposure to SVB – and that exposure equates to 0.1% of the fund. For most investors, the fund constitutes a small proportion of their overall portfolio, meaning that any exposure in clients’ portfolios is negligible.

After weeks of losses, markets delivered positive returns across the board. In the US, mixed economic data meant investors took a breather. Japan gets a boost of optimism, whilst in China, despite strong data, the growth expected for 2023 is likely to underwhelm. Closer to home, the UK and the EU clinch a deal after years of post-Brexit tensions.

It was a challenging week for markets – higher inflation numbers point to potentially larger interest rate hikes, whilst economic activity in many parts of the world appears to show more resilient economies. This would allow central banks to continue raising interest rates if inflation remains high.

A mixed week in markets, dominated by the outlook for inflation and what this could mean for interest rates going forward. Geopolitical tensions escalate between the U.S. and China.

Broadly speaking markets were down across the world – for various reasons, but clearly focused on what’s next for central banks. In the US and Europe, any signs from the central banks on what’s next continues to drive markets. In Japan, investors await news on who the next central bank chief might be, whilst geopolitical tensions pick up in China. The UK economy avoided a recession in 2022, but only just.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all raised interest rates this week as widely expected. But investors focused on their narrative after these interest rate hikes. In the US, things are getting better but the Fed is taking baby steps. The Bank of England is suggesting it is done with interest rate hikes as the economic slowdown will help bring inflation down and the European Central Bank has said they are not done with interest rate hikes just yet.

Investor sentiment is boosted globally as data suggests that the global economic picture may not be as bad as previously anticipated. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank), European Central Bank and Bank of England this week as they meet to decide on interest rate increases.

Recession concerns come back to the forefront, dampening investor sentiment, and breaking the 2023 market gains for Western economies. Over in Asia, demand was boosted by better-than expected data coming out of China.

Another strong week for markets, dominated by falling inflation in the US, data out of Europe suggesting that the economy might not suffer as much as originally expected and the surprise expansion of the economy in the UK during November.

On behalf of everyone at Omnis Investments, we’d like to wish you a Happy New Year! 

2023 has begun with most markets in green led by strong jobs data in the US and falling inflation in Europe.

I am joined by two of my colleagues; Robert Jeffree (Chief Investment Officer) and Colin Gellatly (Chief Investment Strategy) to discuss the final busy week with increases in inflation and interest rates and the extraordinary year we've had.

Broadly speaking, markets fell this week as concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes remain at the forefront, with key central banks making decisions on interest rates during this coming week. Over in Asia, domestic factors supported markets – in Japan a stronger economy kept investors upbeat and in China, markets were encouraged by the change in approach to their zero-covid policies.

This week, investors were (yet again) focused on interest rates. From suggestion by the central bank in the US, to falling inflation in Europe, markets were lifted on expectations of slower interest rate hikes from here. Development in China has led to a review of its zero-covid policies. Broadly speaking markets reacted positively to the news of slower interest rate hikes and the developments in China.

Overall markets were positive over the week. Investors were broadly focussed on any indications that would allow central banks to slow down the pace at which they raise interest rates. Signs of economic slowdown and that inflation may soon begin to fall set the scene for markets this week.

It was a mixed week for markets around the world. In the US, investors continue to look for reasons for the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate rises. High inflation and poor economic data in Japan weighed in markets, whilst in China investors balanced their optimism of a gradual reversal of its zero-covid policies with the negative news of rising cases. In the UK, all eyes were on Jeremy Hunt’s tax rises and spending cuts as inflation continues to soar.

Markets around the world rallied, with the news that inflation appears to be slowing in the US, boosting investor sentiment around the world. A relaxation in China’s zero-covid policies provided some further support in Asia. Meanwhile, economic contraction in the UK weighed on the UK stock market.