Engaging the Eagle - Exploring U.S. Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia

Described as a “critical swing state” by Kurt Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs on the National Security Council, Vietnam has been increasingly viewed as a key partner for the U.S. due to its strategic location and their common interest in opposing Chinese maritime aggression. Yet, the relationship between Washington and Hanoi has ostensibly cooled over the past year, with no major visits by U.S. leaders to Vietnam in 2022. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled his visit to Hanoi in July, while the anticipated visit by the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and a requested visit from President Joe Biden failed to materialize. There have been numerous suggested reasons for this relative freeze in ties with the U.S., ranging from frictions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the ouster of former-President Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Hanoi’s desire to reaffirm economic ties with Beijing. Nonetheless, there are still opportunities for Washington to deepen its relationship with Hanoi, especially in areas such as energy security and trade. Some observers have also called for the pair to elevate their relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership, which would signal their mutual interest in a more sustainable path of cooperation.

The past few months have seen a flurry of activity in U.S.-Philippines ties. Under US President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Washington and Manila are resuming and expanding security cooperation under the 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA, which permits the U.S. to deploy conventional forces in the Philippines on a rotational basis. Cooperation is also growing in areas such as energy security, with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris unveiling a host of new initiatives such as a geothermal plant and a new energy dialogue during a state visit in November 2022. President Marcos even remarked that he does not see a future for the Philippines that does not include the U.S. Still, there are limits and speedbumps to Manila’s engagement with Washington. Tensions in cross-strait relations are a sensitive issue, with President Marcos noting that it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines would not get involved in a cross-strait conflict given their geographic location. There are also questions about how Marcos’ strategy will develop or whether foreign policy will be used to further his personal interests. To discuss these important topics, USP invited Professor Mely Caballero-Anthony and Professor Renato De Castro to share their views. Tune in to hear their evaluation of the relationship and its prospects for development in 2023.

After languishing during the Trump Administration, U.S.-Indonesia ties appear to be on an upswing. In August 2021, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi remarked during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that a “new era” of bilateral ties would be central to the establishment of a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. Bilateral military cooperation and investments by U.S. tech giants have increased significantly, and the U.S. recently joined the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership to mobilise US$20 billion of public and private finance to help Indonesia meet its emissions targets. However, there are limits to what Washington should expect from Jakarta and vice versa. Indonesian leaders have stressed their neutral stance of maintaining close ties with all nations, including the U.S. and China, and are ramping up their economic cooperation with Beijing. Moreover, U.S. engagement tends to be less visible in comparison to the slew of China-backed infrastructure and industrial projects in Indonesia. Navigating these concerns and challenges will be important for the relationship.  To discuss these important topics, USP invited Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar and Dr Adhi Priarmarizki to share their views. Tune in to hear their evaluation of the relationship and its prospects for development in 2023.