What Scotland ThinksFeb 20, 2020
Independence, the monarchy, and constitutional reform
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes reflect on the constitutional events of the past few weeks, and consider what the accession of a new monarch might mean for the independence debate in Scotland. They examine how views on the monarchy might be structured both north and south of the Border, discuss the current pattern of opinion towards how an independent Scotland should be governed, and cover the key findings from Alex and John’s latest contribution to the British Social Attitudes survey report looking at shifting views towards the union across the constituent nations of the UK.
The SNP-Green deal and the future of the independence debate
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes take a look at what the latest public opinion data tells us about voter’s attitudes towards the deal between the SNP and the Green party at Holyrood. They also examine whether the balance of support for independence has shifted during the summer, assess the potential for the substantive arguments on both sides of the constitutional debate to sway voters one way or the other, and discuss the continuing impact of Brexit on the pattern of attitudes towards independence.
The 2021 Scottish Parliament elections in review
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Claire Elliott take stock of where we stand now that the dust has settled on the results of last month's Holyrood elections. They take a look at whether the final results matched up what the polls told us to expect beforehand, analyse what the performance of both the Nationalist and Unionist parties might mean for the prospect of a second independence referendum, and discuss the long-term implications of the outcome for Scotland’s constitutional future.
The final polls (before the one that counts)
With less than 24 hours to go until the Scottish Parliament election, Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, Alex Scholes, and Claire Elliott take a look at the final polls of the campaign. They discuss the prospects of an overall SNP majority at Holyrood, look at where the two major Unionist parties stand ahead of the vote, and examine the potential consequences of the outcome of this crucial ballot. They also have an in-depth chat with Alex about his latest analysis paper, written together with John, which investigates the links between national identity, social values, and support for both the SNP and independence.
The Scottish Parliament election campaign so far
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Claire Elliott take a look at the polling data that has emerged during the first few weeks of the Scottish Parliament election campaign, examining where the major parties stand ahead of May 6th and looking at the potential impact of Alex Salmond's Alba party on the SNP's chances of achieving an overall majority at Holyrood. They are also joined by Eilidh Macfarlane, doctoral student at the University of Oxford, who takes them through new research undertaken using British Election Study data that helps shed new light on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the political landscape in Scotland.
Alba, Alex Salmond, and the 2021 Holyrood election
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Claire Elliott review a hectic few weeks in Scottish politics, take a look at where the parties stand going into the 2021 Scottish Parliament election campaign, and discuss the potential impact of Alex Salmond's new pro-independence Alba party upon the makeup of Holyrood in May.
Sir John Curtice and Ian Montagu are joined by Professors Ailsa Henderson and Richard Wyn Jones, authors of 'Englishness: The Political Force Transforming Britain', who take us through their research on the nature and character of Englishness, its relationship with other UK national identities, and its role in shaping recent political events that have transformed Britain.
The SNP and shifting political strategies
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes look at what the polls can tell us about where the parties stand ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections in May, discuss Richard Leonard’s departure as leader of the Scottish Labour party, and examine the strategic decisions facing the SNP over the coming months in the party's pursuit of independence. They also look at the latest polling on UK-wide attitudes towards Scottish independence, and ask whether the views of people elsewhere in Britain affect the potential for a second referendum in Scotland.
Is Brexit fuelling support for independence?
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Claire Elliott explore data from the latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey, and take a look at what it can tell us about the links between attitudes towards Brexit and views on Scottish independence. They also discuss the latest independence polling, and examine the potential drivers behind another increase in support for Yes.
The Scottish Conservatives and the makeup of Holyrood in 2021
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes look at whether three polls that have emerged over the past fortnight confirm the picture of a further rise in support for independence that has been seen over the last few months. They also discuss what we know about the likely composition of Holyrood following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, and examine how voters feel about the new Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross.
Independence polling during COVID-19
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes look at three recent polls of indyref2 vote intention that seem to point to a further increase in support for Scottish independence, discuss the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on constitutional preference both north and south of the border, and ask whether there is any substance behind stories of the creation of a new pro-independence party in Scotland.
Has support for independence hit 50%?
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes look at a series of three recent polls of indyref2 vote intention and ask whether support for Scottish independence has passed the 50% mark, whether any shift in public opinion is likely to last, and what this might mean for the next few months of constitutional politics in Scotland.
Does Scotland want indyref2 this year?
Sir John Curtice, Ian Montagu, and Alex Scholes discuss public attitudes towards whether a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland during the next year, what conditions would need to be in place to hold indyref2, and what the polls are telling us about the current balance of opinion on Scottish independence.